Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> was implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. Hang Seng Indexes should announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 12 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 December.The review period for the December rebalance ends on 30 September and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>.There were 3 inclusions at the June rebalance and 3 inclusions and 1 exclusion at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents to 60.With Hang Seng Indexes looking to get up to 80 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> members by mid-2022, there could be 20 inclusions over the next 3 index rebalances.Stocks that are ranked towards the top of their Industry group and are potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-mixc-lifestyle-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29285:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>.Given that the index committee consciously avoided including stocks from sectors that were targeted by tightening regulations in China, this list will be revised closer to the index committee meeting in November. Another factor that will determine the number of inclusions is the turnover at the rebalance - while it is less than 4% now with the 10 inclusions, that number will move higher as stocks move around and there are capping changes on the largest constituents.

The September rebalance of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) was implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. Hang Seng Indexes should announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 12 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 December.The review period for the December rebalance ends on 30 September and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX).There were 3 inclusions at the June rebalance and 3 inclusions and 1 exclusion at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents to 60.With Hang Seng Indexes looking to get up to 80 Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) members by mid-2022, there could be 20 inclusions over the next 3 index rebalances.Stocks that are ranked towards the top of their Industry group and are potential inclusions are Smoore International (6969 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK), Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK), China Gas Holdings (384 HK), JD Health (6618 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and Fosun International (656 HK).Given that the index committee consciously avoided including stocks from sectors that were targeted by tightening regulations in China, this list will be revised closer to the index committee meeting in November. Another factor that will determine the number of inclusions is the turnover at the rebalance - while it is less than 4% now with the 10 inclusions, that number will move higher as stocks move around and there are capping changes on the largest constituents.

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suchuang-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:304:1" rel="noopener">Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK)</a> is the dominant piped natural gas operator in Taicang, Jiangsu Province. After market close on Wednesday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-gas-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20525:1" rel="noopener">CR Gas (1193 HK)</a>. The offeror will offer either a cash alternative (HK$2.50 in cash for each scheme share) or a share alternative (1 new share in HoldCo for every scheme share).The bid represents a premium of 27.6% over the closing price of HK$1.96 per share on the undisturbed date (10 August 2021 prior to irregular price movements) and a premium of 2.9% over the closing price of HK$2.43 per share on the last trading date (13 August 2021 prior to the trading halt). The completion conditions include regulatory approvals from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) and State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). As CR Gas is a subsidiary of China Resources (Holdings) Company Limited, an SOE, regulatory approval should be forthcoming. <div class="content-highlight">The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 565.4 million shares or 62.61% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 56.5 million shares or 6.26% of shares outstanding. Excluding the irrecovables, no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. Overall, we think the offer price is ok and that the privatisation bid will be successful. </div>

Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK) is the dominant piped natural gas operator in Taicang, Jiangsu Province. After market close on Wednesday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from CR Gas (1193 HK). The offeror will offer either a cash alternative (HK$2.50 in cash for each scheme share) or a share alternative (1 new share in HoldCo for every scheme share).The bid represents a premium of 27.6% over the closing price of HK$1.96 per share on the undisturbed date (10 August 2021 prior to irregular price movements) and a premium of 2.9% over the closing price of HK$2.43 per share on the last trading date (13 August 2021 prior to the trading halt). The completion conditions include regulatory approvals from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) and State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). As CR Gas is a subsidiary of China Resources (Holdings) Company Limited, an SOE, regulatory approval should be forthcoming. The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 565.4 million shares or 62.61% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 56.5 million shares or 6.26% of shares outstanding. Excluding the irrecovables, no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. Overall, we think the offer price is ok and that the privatisation bid will be successful. 

Suchuang Gas’ Privatisation Bid from CR Gas

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

We came out of the post-1H21 result call of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> with unchanged positive view, and the message from management suggested that outlook for 2H21 stay promising and the pull-back in share price is unwarranted. We increased our earnings forecasts and based on our latest projections, Kunlun is trading on just 9.2x PER for FY21 (on continuing operations), making it the cheapest among China's gas utilities stocks.We think the good new project momentum, stable margin outlook, commencement of new projects, better profitability at LNG terminals and stronger LPG volume are the major drivers for Kunlun. We estimate an ROE of 10.6% for FY21, and yet it will still be in a net cash position at end-FY21, which compares well with most peers which are at much higher leverage levels.

We came out of the post-1H21 result call of Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with unchanged positive view, and the message from management suggested that outlook for 2H21 stay promising and the pull-back in share price is unwarranted. We increased our earnings forecasts and based on our latest projections, Kunlun is trading on just 9.2x PER for FY21 (on continuing operations), making it the cheapest among China's gas utilities stocks.We think the good new project momentum, stable margin outlook, commencement of new projects, better profitability at LNG terminals and stronger LPG volume are the major drivers for Kunlun. We estimate an ROE of 10.6% for FY21, and yet it will still be in a net cash position at end-FY21, which compares well with most peers which are at much higher leverage levels.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Quick Take After Post-1H21 Call, Stays Positive

We see the 1H21 earnings report of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> is a healthy one, given a 18.4% YoY growth in core earnings. Its gross margin contracted 0.7pp YoY with only gas wholesale segment recording margin expansion. In particular, just 11% growth in retail gas gross profit and a Rmb0.05/cu.m. or about 8.2% YoY contraction in dollar margin are concerns.Management expects slower gas sales growth in 2H21 with stable margin. It secured 4 new city-gas projects in 1H21 which looks slow, though the integrated energy segment has 16 new projects. While the 1H21 result itself is not bad, we think its 20.6x PER for FY21 does not provide much upside potential from current level. After a 45% rally YTD and only 9.2% off all-time high, we see risk that ENN is vulnerable to profit-taking in the near term, based on the excuse of weaker-than-expected retail gas business.

We see the 1H21 earnings report of ENN Energy (2688 HK) is a healthy one, given a 18.4% YoY growth in core earnings. Its gross margin contracted 0.7pp YoY with only gas wholesale segment recording margin expansion. In particular, just 11% growth in retail gas gross profit and a Rmb0.05/cu.m. or about 8.2% YoY contraction in dollar margin are concerns.Management expects slower gas sales growth in 2H21 with stable margin. It secured 4 new city-gas projects in 1H21 which looks slow, though the integrated energy segment has 16 new projects. While the 1H21 result itself is not bad, we think its 20.6x PER for FY21 does not provide much upside potential from current level. After a 45% rally YTD and only 9.2% off all-time high, we see risk that ENN is vulnerable to profit-taking in the near term, based on the excuse of weaker-than-expected retail gas business.  

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Concerns on Margin Squeeze, Key Takeaways from Post-Result Call

Despite the good share price performance after going ex-dividends, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> still has significant upside potential, in our view. YTD, industry and peer figures have already showed a very solid underlying picture of China's gas consumption market. We updated our financial projections to incorporate the good 1Q21 result of Kunlun Gas, particularly to reflect the lower-than-expected minority interests which means that its wholly-owned subsidiaries are more profitable than non-wholly-owned which is a fact likely to be missed by the market.We project 3-year EPS CAGR of 20% for Kunlun's continuing operations, with ROE of 10.9% for FY22; and the stock trades on just 10.9x PER for FY21F and 0.9x P/B for FY22F. Such growth, return and valuation metrics clearly put the stock in an attractive zone relative to the peers' multiples - average sector growth is 15.9% at PER of 15.6x and average ROE of 17.7% at 2.2x P/B. More importantly, we see its net cash over the next two years to amount to 26-37% of the current share price.

Despite the good share price performance after going ex-dividends, Kunlun Energy (135 HK) still has significant upside potential, in our view. YTD, industry and peer figures have already showed a very solid underlying picture of China's gas consumption market. We updated our financial projections to incorporate the good 1Q21 result of Kunlun Gas, particularly to reflect the lower-than-expected minority interests which means that its wholly-owned subsidiaries are more profitable than non-wholly-owned which is a fact likely to be missed by the market.We project 3-year EPS CAGR of 20% for Kunlun's continuing operations, with ROE of 10.9% for FY22; and the stock trades on just 10.9x PER for FY21F and 0.9x P/B for FY22F. Such growth, return and valuation metrics clearly put the stock in an attractive zone relative to the peers' multiples - average sector growth is 15.9% at PER of 15.6x and average ROE of 17.7% at 2.2x P/B. More importantly, we see its net cash over the next two years to amount to 26-37% of the current share price.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Updated Financial Projections Point to Still Very Undemanding Valuations

China

Enn Natural Gas Co.,Ltd. offers natural gas engineering services. The Company provides natural gas engineering investment, gas station construction, and energy equipment distribution services. Enn Natural Gas also operates coal materials, chemicals,  and biopharmaceutical products trading businesses.

Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd., supplies gas in Shenzhen. The Company business includes wholesale of gas, pipeline and the supply of bottled gas, investment and construction in the distribution network of gas transmission.

Foran Energy Group Co.,Ltd. operates as a natural gas production company. The Company mainly offers liquefied and compressed natural gas transmission and distribution services. Foran Energy Group also provides natural gas high pressure pipe network construction services.

Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. distributes and sells natural, liquefied petroleum, and manufactured gases throughout China.

Shaan Xi Provincial Natural Gas Company Ltd. transports natural gas through pipelines.

Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co, Ltd. (002267 CH)

Chongqing Gas Group Corporation Limited supplies gas, installs gas facilities and equipment in Chongqing.

Xinjiang Haoyuan Gas Company Limited processes, sells, services and delivers natural gas. The Company's main products include delivery and sale of natural gas, and home residents pipeline installation services.

China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd. processes and distributes natural gas through urban pipelines.  The Company operates in Henan Province, China.  China Tian Lun Gas also operates a compressed natural gas filling station.

Huadian Power International Corporation Limited generates and sells electricity which is all fed into the Shandong Provincial Grid operated by Shandong Electric Power (Group) Corporation (SEPCO), the immediate holding company of the Company.  The Company also sells heat.

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

TOKYO GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies liquefied natural gas to Tokyo and the surrounding areas.  The Company maintains and manages gas supply equipment and sells air conditioning appliances.  Tokyo Gas operates power generation business as well.

Petronas Gas Berhad processes and separates natural gas into its components from the gas field offshore Terengganu. The Company stores, transports, and distributes these components as well as trades utilities to petrochemical plants.

OSAKA GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies natural gas primarily in Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo areas.  The Company provides gases and energy products for residential, commercial, and industrial customers.  Osaka Gas also constructs and maintains gas supply lines.  In addition, the Company sells gas appliances.

China Resources Gas Group Ltd distributes natural gas and petroleum gas in the cities of Chengdu, Fuyang, Huaibei, Linhai, Suzhou and Wuxi in the PRC. The Company also operates compressed natural gas filling stations in Chengdu, Nanjing and Wuxi. The group also is involved in bottled liquefied petroleum gas distribution in cities of Fuyang, Suzhou and Wuxi.

PetroVietnam Gas JSC transports, stores, and markets petroleum gas.  The Companies products include liquefied petroleum gas, dry gas, compressed natural gas, and liquefied natural gas.  PetroVietnam's services include gas gathering, gas importation, gas transportation and distribution, gas engine development and gas operation and maintenance.

APA Group is a natural gas infrastructure company. The Company owns and or operates gas transmission and distribution assets whose pipelines span every state and territory in mainland Australia. APA Group also holds minority interests in energy infrastructure enterprises.

Southwest Gas Corporation purchases, transports, and distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in portions of Arizona, Nevada, and California.  The Company also provides construction services to utility companies, including trenching and installation, replacement, and maintenance services for energy distribution systems.

National Fuel Gas Company is an integrated natural gas company with operations in all segments of the natural gas industry, including utility, pipeline and storage, exploration and production, and marketing operations.  The Company operates across the United States.

China Gas Holdings Ltd. invests in, operates and manages natural gas distribution pipelines.  The Company distributes and sells natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial users, and bottles and sells compressed natural gas.  China Gas also constructs and operates gas stations.

UGI Corporation distributes and markets energy products and services.  The Company is a domestic and international distributor of propane.  UGI also distributes and markets natural gas and electricity, and sells related products and services in the Middle Atlantic region of the United States.

ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. distributes natural gas in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in, operates, and manages gas pipelines, and sells and distributes piped and bottled gas in China.

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ENN Energy (2688 HK)

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December

There could be 10 inclusions to the HSI at the Dec rebalance to help reach the 80 index member count by mid-2022. Index turnover & regulations will...

Brian Freitas

Suchuang Gas’ Privatisation Bid from CR Gas

Suchuang Gas received a privatisation offer from CR Gas for a cash alternative (HK$2.50) or a share alternative. We think the offer price is ok and...

Arun George

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Quick Take After Post-1H21 Call, Stays Positive

Our impression on Kunlun remains unchanged after the post-1H21 result call. Outlook is still encouraging and new project momentum is solid. Our...

Osbert Tang, CFA