Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices have <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20200903-1214159/1214159_2020.09.04-quarta-200.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 18 September.There are 5 inclusions and 5 exclusions as part of the review.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd-8c26dbc6-035c-46ae-84c3-6401a1d454e4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24928:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> and the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-hope-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4414:1" rel="noopener">New Hope Corp (NHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a>.Most of the names were expected to be included/excluded from the index. For us, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd-8c26dbc6-035c-46ae-84c3-6401a1d454e4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24928:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU)</a> was a surprise among the inclusions and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a> was a surprise among the deletions.Quite a few stocks have more than 2 days of passive buying/selling. The one stock that does not is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> where volumes have been elevated over the past week following Paypal's entry into the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market that has sent Z1P's stock around 26% lower.Short interest is elevated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-hope-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4414:1" rel="noopener">New Hope Corp (NHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a> at more than 8 days to cover. Some of these stocks may rise before implementation day as borrows are recalled by passive funds/ index arb desks.

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices have announced changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 18 September.There are 5 inclusions and 5 exclusions as part of the review.The inclusions are Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU), Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU), Ramelius Resources (RMS AU), Westgold Resources (WGX AU) and Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) and the exclusions are Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), New Hope Corp (NHC AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).Most of the names were expected to be included/excluded from the index. For us, Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU) was a surprise among the inclusions and Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU) was a surprise among the deletions.Quite a few stocks have more than 2 days of passive buying/selling. The one stock that does not is Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) where volumes have been elevated over the past week following Paypal's entry into the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market that has sent Z1P's stock around 26% lower.Short interest is elevated on New Hope Corp (NHC AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) at more than 8 days to cover. Some of these stocks may rise before implementation day as borrows are recalled by passive funds/ index arb desks.

ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Changes Than Expected

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 4 September. The changes are effective at the close of trading on 18 September and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on that day.The data cutoff for the September review is 21 August.We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> being included in the index and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a> being excluded from the index.Sitting right at the edge of the buffer zone, there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a> being included and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a> being excluded.

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 4 September. The changes are effective at the close of trading on 18 September and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on that day.The data cutoff for the September review is 21 August.We see a high probability of Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) being included in the index and of Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) and oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU) being excluded from the index.Sitting right at the edge of the buffer zone, there is a lower probability of Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU) and Westgold Resources (WGX AU) being included and Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Western Areas (WSA AU) being excluded.

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview - Couple of High Probability Changes; Couple on the Cusp

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Equity Bottom-Up

Whilst Smartgroup Corporation Limited (SIQ) has reported a  solid set of 2018 earnings, the real story is not the results, but the outlook.
We examine the potential for the company to simply deliver a multiple expansion. If SIQ succeeds with some further consolidation of acquisitions. The potential for this Event-driven upside is significant if this is combined with additional earnings trends. 
Furthermore, the stock rank system which the company is benchmarked against suggests potential to post an upgrade, which inevitably fuels share price performance.

Whilst Smartgroup Corporation Limited (SIQ) has reported a  solid set of 2018 earnings, the real story is not the results, but the outlook.
We examine the potential for the company to simply deliver a multiple expansion. If SIQ succeeds with some further consolidation of acquisitions. The potential for this Event-driven upside is significant if this is combined with additional earnings trends. 
Furthermore, the stock rank system which the company is benchmarked against suggests potential to post an upgrade, which inevitably fuels share price performance. 

Notes from the Silk Road: Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (SIQ.AX) - Multiple Expansion Potential

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

In this version of the GER weekly research wrap, we assess the bump prospects in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19399" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19399:1">Australian Pharma Industries (API AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15966" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> potential merger. Arun updates on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/412" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:412:1">M1 Ltd (M1 SP)</a> which could be delisted following an unconditional offer. In addition, we dig into the trading update for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/339" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1">Eclipx (ECX AU)</a> and assess the risks that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3023" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a> could walk away from the deal. Finally, we initiate on the IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23675" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (HANSOH HK)</a>. A calendar of upcoming catalysts is also attached. More details can be found below. Best of luck for the new week - Rickin, Venkat and Arun

In this version of the GER weekly research wrap, we assess the bump prospects in the Australian Pharma Industries (API AU) / Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) potential merger. Arun updates on M1 Ltd (M1 SP) which could be delisted following an unconditional offer. In addition, we dig into the trading update for Eclipx (ECX AU) and assess the risks that Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU) could walk away from the deal. Finally, we initiate on the IPO of Hansoh Pharmaceutical (HANSOH HK). A calendar of upcoming catalysts is also attached. More details can be found below. Best of luck for the new week - Rickin, Venkat and Arun

Last Week in GER Research: API/Sigma, M1, Eclipx/Mcmillan and Hansoh IPO

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

On 29 January 2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/339" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1">Eclipx (ECX AU)</a> issued an unexpected trading update citing a soft 1H19 performance and that FY19 NPATA will be more second-half weighted than in the past. In response to Eclipx’s trading update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3023" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a> said it needs to do further work resulting in the rescheduling of the first court hearing of 1 February 2019.<div class="content-highlight">Before the trading update, Eclipx shares were trading in line with the implied value of MMS’s proposal. Post the trading update, Eclipx shares trade at an 11% discount to the implied value of MMS’s proposal due to increasing concerns that MMS would seek to walk away from the merger. We believe at the current Eclipx share price, the risk-reward is attractive.</div>

On 29 January 2019, Eclipx (ECX AU) issued an unexpected trading update citing a soft 1H19 performance and that FY19 NPATA will be more second-half weighted than in the past. In response to Eclipx’s trading update, Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU) said it needs to do further work resulting in the rescheduling of the first court hearing of 1 February 2019.Before the trading update, Eclipx shares were trading in line with the implied value of MMS’s proposal. Post the trading update, Eclipx shares trade at an 11% discount to the implied value of MMS’s proposal due to increasing concerns that MMS would seek to walk away from the merger. We believe at the current Eclipx share price, the risk-reward is attractive.

Eclipx (ECX AU): Worth a Punt that McMillan Merger Goes Through

Australia

McMillan Shakespeare Limited provides salary packaging services.  The Company also offers services like procurement of motor vehicles, insurance, finance and fuel and service maintenance programs.

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Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)

ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Changes Than Expected

SP Dow Jones Indices have announced changes to the SP/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review.

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview - Couple of High Probability Changes; Couple on the Cusp

S&P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 4 September. The...

Brian Freitas

Notes from the Silk Road: Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (SIQ.AX) - Multiple Expansion Potential

Whilst Smartgroup Corporation Limited (SIQ) has reported a solid set of 2018 earnings, the real story is not the results, but the outlook. We...

David Lepper

Last Week in GER Research: API/Sigma, M1, Eclipx/Mcmillan and Hansoh IPO

In this version of the GER weekly research wrap, we assess the bump prospects in the Australian Pharma Industries (API AU) / Sigma Healthcare (SIG...

Rickin Thakrar

Eclipx (ECX AU): Worth a Punt that McMillan Merger Goes Through

On 29 January 2019, Eclipx (ECX AU) issued an unexpected trading update citing a soft 1H19 performance and that FY19 NPATA will be more second-half...

Arun George

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