Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. </li>
<li>JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire</li>
<li>Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments</li>
</ul>


Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. 
JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire
Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments


Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ</li>
<li>Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.</li>
<li>Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ
Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.
Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign


Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. 
NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number


Ohayo Japan |Tech on Fire; Relentless Japan Equity Bid;NUGGET: "My Number" Expansion to Hasten JP DX

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise;  Solid US Housing starts; Musk Says 2 new Blockbuster Telsa models to come. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs 1.4% vs Cash; Japan Equities poised to make new highs on US rally and weaker yen;  Japan GDP print 1.6%, better than expected;  Chinese Tourist Back </li>
<li>NUGGET. Rapidus aims to rejuvenate Japan's semiconductor industry by developing advanced 2-nanometer logic semiconductors, with plans for a prototype production line by 2025 and mass production by 2027.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise;  Solid US Housing starts; Musk Says 2 new Blockbuster Telsa models to come. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs 1.4% vs Cash; Japan Equities poised to make new highs on US rally and weaker yen;  Japan GDP print 1.6%, better than expected;  Chinese Tourist Back 
NUGGET. Rapidus aims to rejuvenate Japan's semiconductor industry by developing advanced 2-nanometer logic semiconductors, with plans for a prototype production line by 2025 and mass production by 2027.


Ohayo Japan|Relief Equity Rally, But Still No Deal; NUGGET: Rapidus: Key to Japan's Semi Resurgence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index team has been quite conscious of market impact since the April 2000 debacle. For a few years after, things were quieter. In 2005, Fast Retailing spurred introspection.</li>
<li>Float was low and became lower. Selection behaviour changed. Now there is a new consultation where "technical listings" would stay in, and phased "stepwise" inclusion would reduce inclusion impact.</li>
<li>The proposal increases subjectivity, reduces the attractiveness of bets, but otherwise increases the likelihood they will follow the other selection rules. It STILL does not solve the high weight problem.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index team has been quite conscious of market impact since the April 2000 debacle. For a few years after, things were quieter. In 2005, Fast Retailing spurred introspection.
Float was low and became lower. Selection behaviour changed. Now there is a new consultation where "technical listings" would stay in, and phased "stepwise" inclusion would reduce inclusion impact.
The proposal increases subjectivity, reduces the attractiveness of bets, but otherwise increases the likelihood they will follow the other selection rules. It STILL does not solve the high weight problem.


Nikkei 225 Index Consultation Makes Things Weirder, but Still a 0️⃣🍔

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

The Nikkei 225 rose 4.8% and the Topix gained 3.1% on the week on signs of progress with the US debt ceiling, corporate updates, and foreign...

Mark Chadwick

Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ. Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion, down 7.2% QoQ.Tool push outs & cancellations spreading...

William Keating

Ohayo Japan |Tech on Fire; Relentless Japan Equity Bid;NUGGET: "My Number" Expansion to Hasten JP DX

NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash; As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Relief Equity Rally, But Still No Deal; NUGGET: Rapidus: Key to Japan's Semi Resurgence

Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise; Solid US Housing starts; Japan Equities poised to make new highs...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 Index Consultation Makes Things Weirder, but Still a 0️⃣🍔

The Nikkei 225 proposal does little. It reduces impact. That likely increases the chances the Nikkei Index Team will follow existing rules. And it...

Travis Lundy

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