HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhejiang Expressway Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By way of its 54.79% ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a> is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  </li>
<li>The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.</li>
<li>ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.</li>
</ul>


By way of its 54.79% ownership in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH), Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  
The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.
ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.</li>
<li>The mega merger between  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.</li>
<li>Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.
The mega merger between  Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) and Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.
Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.


China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.</li>
<li>A combination with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. </li>
<li>Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. </li>
</ul>


China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.
A combination with China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. 
Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 95.8% as of Oct 25th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate and offset by utilities, consumer discretionary, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for SMIC, ZOOMLION, PICC, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, INNOCARE.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 95.8% as of Oct 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate and offset by utilities, consumer discretionary, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for SMIC, ZOOMLION, PICC, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, INNOCARE.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 25th):SMIC, ZOOMLION, PICC, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, INNOCARE

<ul>
<li>Although the H-share securities companies have retreated significantly from their peaks, there are still "fats" in their share prices in the near term, relative to the market turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> looks vulnerable given its high valuations, low H-A share discount, limited correction from its peak, and significant rebound from the trough.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)</a> appears exposed though valuations are not high. It has the best YTD performance and rebound from the trough, and its H-A share discount is light.   </li>
</ul>


Although the H-share securities companies have retreated significantly from their peaks, there are still "fats" in their share prices in the near term, relative to the market turnover.

Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) looks vulnerable given its high valuations, low H-A share discount, limited correction from its peak, and significant rebound from the trough.

China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) appears exposed though valuations are not high. It has the best YTD performance and rebound from the trough, and its H-A share discount is light.   


China Strategy: Screening the H-Share Securities Companies

China

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities investment fund agency, securities asset management, and other services. Shenwan Hongyuan Group provides services in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shenwan Hongyuan Group (6806 HK)

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

CICC (3908 HK): M&A Possibility

China's securities industry is consolidating. A potential merger between CICC and CGS could create the 3rd largest securities house in China. CICC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 25th):SMIC, ZOOMLION, PICC, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, INNOCARE

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for SMIC, ZOOMLION, PICC, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, INNOCARE.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

​Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

CICC (3908 HK): M&A Possibility

​China's securities industry is consolidating. A potential merger between CICC and CGS could create the 3rd largest securities house in China. CICC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 25th):SMIC, ZOOMLION, PICC, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, INNOCARE

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for SMIC, ZOOMLION, PICC, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, INNOCARE.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Strategy: Screening the H-Share Securities Companies

​H-share securities companies still have room for corrections despite recent retreats, with Citic Securities and China Merchants Securities looking...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

China's securities industry is consolidating. A potential merger between CICC and CGS could create the 3rd largest securities house in China. CICC...

H-share securities companies still have room for corrections despite recent retreats, with Citic Securities and China Merchants Securities looking...