Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.
There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Privatisations could lead to two/three <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.</li>
<li>Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in December.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


Privatisations could lead to two/three S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.
Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in December.
The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

10 in 10 with Cromwell European REIT - Unlocking value from logistics pivot

<ul>
<li>We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.


S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.</li>
<li>There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>



Cromwell Property (CMW AU) is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.
Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of Cromwell Property (CMW AU) and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.
There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Australia

Cromwell Property Group is a property and funds manager. The Company, through its subsidiary, provides funds management, property transactions, property and facilities management, finance, compliance, debenture issues, and debt management.

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Cromwell Property (CMW AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

10 in 10 with Cromwell European REIT - Unlocking value from logistics pivot

10 in 10 with Cromwell European REIT - Unlocking value from logistics pivot

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

There could be around 22 changes for the SnP/ASX family of indices in September. The impact of passive trading will be high on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Cromwell Property is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index. Passive trackers need to sell 13.9m shares (5.1x ADV) of CMW but short...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

10 in 10 with Cromwell European REIT - Unlocking value from logistics pivot

10 in 10 with Cromwell European REIT - Unlocking value from logistics pivot

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

There could be around 22 changes for the SnP/ASX family of indices in September. The impact of passive trading will be high on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Cromwell Property is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index. Passive trackers need to sell 13.9m shares (5.1x ADV) of CMW but short...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September