HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>24Q4 is under pressure to meet performance targets, and may even miss the guidance. It’s already good if net profit can reach about RMB9.6 billion in 2024 full year.</li>
<li>US clients use WuXi AppTec’s shorter-term services with lower prices to save on cash. These contracts may not be converted into later commercial-stage projects as expected due to geopolitical risks.</li>
<li>2024 is obviously a low point for performance, but it is uncertain whether the expected recovery will occur in 2025 and beyond. The BIOSECURE Act makes future performance growth unclear.</li>
</ul>


24Q4 is under pressure to meet performance targets, and may even miss the guidance. It’s already good if net profit can reach about RMB9.6 billion in 2024 full year.
US clients use WuXi AppTec’s shorter-term services with lower prices to save on cash. These contracts may not be converted into later commercial-stage projects as expected due to geopolitical risks.
2024 is obviously a low point for performance, but it is uncertain whether the expected recovery will occur in 2025 and beyond. The BIOSECURE Act makes future performance growth unclear.


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 24Q3 - Performance Pressure Has Not Been Relieved

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.6% as of Nov 1st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.6% as of Nov 1st.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 1st):Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Eisai Announced that global revenue of Leqembi in Q2FY25 was ¥10B, up 1.6x than Q1FY25. Takeda Pharma announced positive interim results from a Phase 3 study.</li>
<li>Shionogi’s COVID-19 drug was effective in reducing transmission of the disease. JCR Pharmaceuticals initiated first patient dosing in Japan in the Phase I clinical trial of JR-441.</li>
<li>Celltrion signed a contract with a U.S. GPO to list Zymfentra on private insurance formularies, which will expand the drug's coverage to 90%+ of the U.S. health insurance market.</li>
</ul>


Eisai Announced that global revenue of Leqembi in Q2FY25 was ¥10B, up 1.6x than Q1FY25. Takeda Pharma announced positive interim results from a Phase 3 study.
Shionogi’s COVID-19 drug was effective in reducing transmission of the disease. JCR Pharmaceuticals initiated first patient dosing in Japan in the Phase I clinical trial of JR-441.
Celltrion signed a contract with a U.S. GPO to list Zymfentra on private insurance formularies, which will expand the drug's coverage to 90%+ of the U.S. health insurance market.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 3)- Eisai, Takeda, Shionogi, Astellas Pharma, Celltrion, Wuxi AppTec

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>WuXi XDC Cayman shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~28% year-to-date versus a ~19% gain on the Hang Seng Index.</li>
<li>Shares of both WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec also saw selling pressure due to Biosecure Act potential concerns. The US House of Representatives passed the Biosecure Act in September.</li>
<li>I believe that at current levels, the WuXi XDC Cayman valuation is full. My PT of HK$23.00 per share suggests limited upside. </li>
</ul>


WuXi XDC Cayman shares significantly underperformed in 2024 with shares down ~28% year-to-date versus a ~19% gain on the Hang Seng Index.
Shares of both WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec also saw selling pressure due to Biosecure Act potential concerns. The US House of Representatives passed the Biosecure Act in September.
I believe that at current levels, the WuXi XDC Cayman valuation is full. My PT of HK$23.00 per share suggests limited upside. 


WuXi XDC Cayman:  The Stock Still Trades at a Premium Multiple, Lack of Upside Catalysts

<ul>
<li>Although both Republicans and Democrats have policies related to supply chain security/lowering drug prices, they have taken different approaches. Harris is likely to be “a continuation of the Biden policy”. </li>
<li>Harris would continue Biden’s strategy of “wooing India to contain China” and developing a pro-US supply chain system that isolates China.Her future policy direction may be more "predictable" than Trump's.</li>
<li>Whether Trump or Harris is elected as President of the US, there's a high possibility that the US will continue to confront China in the fields of biosecurity and biotechnology.</li>
</ul>


Although both Republicans and Democrats have policies related to supply chain security/lowering drug prices, they have taken different approaches. Harris is likely to be “a continuation of the Biden policy”. 
Harris would continue Biden’s strategy of “wooing India to contain China” and developing a pro-US supply chain system that isolates China.Her future policy direction may be more "predictable" than Trump's.
Whether Trump or Harris is elected as President of the US, there's a high possibility that the US will continue to confront China in the fields of biosecurity and biotechnology.


What Does a Kamala Harris Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

China

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

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WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)