Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI Index has done well in recent weeks, months, but financials are hardly participating</li>
<li>There are vast differences amongst the financial in Korea, not only large Chaebol-like banks</li>
<li>Kakaobank, one of few listed internet banks in the world, is unique with ROA expansion</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI Index has done well in recent weeks, months, but financials are hardly participating
There are vast differences amongst the financial in Korea, not only large Chaebol-like banks
Kakaobank, one of few listed internet banks in the world, is unique with ROA expansion


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Increased exchange rate volatility affects the ADR premium, but past patterns show that exchange rate and ADR premium directions may not always align, requiring consideration of specific contextual factors.</li>
<li>If the won appreciates below the 1,300s range, overseas institutions may shift to asymmetric selling of underlying shares for foreign exchange profit, as shown by rising ADR premiums.</li>
<li>We should watch for peak conditions to capture significant ADR premiums. Trading options include borrowing underlying shares for ADR conversion, even under the current short-selling ban.</li>
</ul>


Increased exchange rate volatility affects the ADR premium, but past patterns show that exchange rate and ADR premium directions may not always align, requiring consideration of specific contextual factors.
If the won appreciates below the 1,300s range, overseas institutions may shift to asymmetric selling of underlying shares for foreign exchange profit, as shown by rising ADR premiums.
We should watch for peak conditions to capture significant ADR premiums. Trading options include borrowing underlying shares for ADR conversion, even under the current short-selling ban.


Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Woori PE, NH PE and KDB Capital seek to raise around KRW195bn (US$141m) through a secondary block deal, selling 0.71m shares (3.64% of TSO) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enchem-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34297:1" rel="noopener">Enchem (348370 KS).</a>
</li>
<li>The deal is a small one to digest at only 1.1 days of three-month ADV. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Woori PE, NH PE and KDB Capital seek to raise around KRW195bn (US$141m) through a secondary block deal, selling 0.71m shares (3.64% of TSO) of Enchem (348370 KS).

The deal is a small one to digest at only 1.1 days of three-month ADV. 
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Enchem Placement- Easily Digestible but a Punt at Best

Clarence Chu

Woori Financial Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>While the deal doesn't look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. </li>
<li>Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.</li>
</ul>


IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
While the deal doesn't look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. 
Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.


Woori Financial Placement - While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

<ul>
<li>Given Korea's blanket ban on short-selling, we should concentrate on the likelihood of these ADRs being significantly discounted compared to their underlying shares.</li>
<li>It should persist for an extended period, highlighting the importance of continuously monitoring ADR spreads over the next 2-3 months to seize the opportune entry timing.</li>
<li>Since all these carry single-stock futures, a flexible setup targeting this spread can be designed, ideally incorporating currency hedges.</li>
</ul>


Given Korea's blanket ban on short-selling, we should concentrate on the likelihood of these ADRs being significantly discounted compared to their underlying shares.
It should persist for an extended period, highlighting the importance of continuously monitoring ADR spreads over the next 2-3 months to seize the opportune entry timing.
Since all these carry single-stock futures, a flexible setup targeting this spread can be designed, ideally incorporating currency hedges.


Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea's Short-Selling Ban

South Korea

Woori Financial Group Inc. provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposit services, loan services, bill services, settlement services, credit card, international, online banking, and other related services. Woori Financial Group also operates banking and retail banking businesses.

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Woori Financial Group (WF US)

KOSPI Index - Banks Hardly Participating

KOSPI index has done well, but banks are hardly participating. Kakaobank may be most interesting given its ROA expansion and size, while Woori may...

Daniel Tabbush

Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility

This post explores trading angles related to the Korean won's appreciation and the increased volatility of Korean ADR premiums.

Sanghyun Park

Enchem Placement- Easily Digestible but a Punt at Best

Woori PE, NH PE and KDB Capital seek to raise around KRW195bn (US$141m) through a secondary block deal, selling 0.71m shares (3.64% of TSO) of...

Ethan Aw

Woori Financial Placement - While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).

Clarence Chu

Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea's Short-Selling Ban

This post explores trading opportunities targeting potential ADR discount increases resulting from Korea's blanket ban on short selling.

Sanghyun Park

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52-week Range

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