Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in March 2025.</li>
<li>The index changes for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced after market close on 21st February 2025.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in March 2025.
The index changes for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced after market close on 21st February 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index: Healthcare Is Still the Most Under-Represented Industry Group

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.</li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.</li>
<li>The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-wantian-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39972:1" rel="noopener">China Wantian Holdings (1854 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-hi-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36125:1" rel="noopener">Super Hi International Holding (9658 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: BeiGene (6160 HK), China Wantian Holdings (1854 HK), and Super Hi International Holding (9658 HK) / Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK).


HK CEO & Director Dealings (17th Dec 2024): BeiGene, China Wantian, Super Hi Int'l/Haidilao

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY).</li><li>The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn, representing 69% of our previous FY24 estimate.</li><li>In 3Q24, sales of zanubrutinib (Zanu) increased 8% QoQ or 93% YoY to US$690mn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY).The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn, representing 69% of our previous FY24 estimate.In 3Q24, sales of zanubrutinib (Zanu) increased 8% QoQ or 93% YoY to US$690mn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Growing Non-GAAP Profit

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>BRUKINSA QoQ growth slowed down to single digit in 24Q3, thus dragging down the overall product revenue growth.However, such QoQ growth and market share growth were still higher than Imbruvica/Calquence. </li>
<li>BRUKINSA’s full-year revenue is expected to reach US$2.5 billion. Due to lower 24Q3 product revenue growth, we adjusted our 2024 forecast - Full year revenue would reach about US$3.7 billion.</li>
<li>BeiGene's performance in 24Q1-Q3 is still on track. Peak sales of BRUKINSA + tislelizumab is about US$5.5 billion. Reasonable market value range for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd-1c8ba4ff-edc5-43c3-b3fe-c3e4230f1c53" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40395:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a> is US$18.5-27.5 billion. </li>
</ul>


BRUKINSA QoQ growth slowed down to single digit in 24Q3, thus dragging down the overall product revenue growth.However, such QoQ growth and market share growth were still higher than Imbruvica/Calquence. 
BRUKINSA’s full-year revenue is expected to reach US$2.5 billion. Due to lower 24Q3 product revenue growth, we adjusted our 2024 forecast - Full year revenue would reach about US$3.7 billion.
BeiGene's performance in 24Q1-Q3 is still on track. Peak sales of BRUKINSA + tislelizumab is about US$5.5 billion. Reasonable market value range for BeiGene is US$18.5-27.5 billion. 


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

<ul>
<li>BeiGene's 24Q2 results far exceeded expectations. Sales of BRUKINSA may exceed that of Calquence for the first time next year. Breakeven in 2024 becomes possible if effective cost control continues.</li>
<li>BeiGene's 2024 revenue could exceed Hengrui, marking the official transition of China's innovative pharmaceutical industry from the old generation to the new one. Reasonable market value for BeiGene is US$19-27.5bn.</li>
<li>Current valuation cannot reflect strong fundamentals.As BeiGene has established a convincing profit model, the market turmoil actually provides investors with a good opportunity to buy the stock at low price.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene's 24Q2 results far exceeded expectations. Sales of BRUKINSA may exceed that of Calquence for the first time next year. Breakeven in 2024 becomes possible if effective cost control continues.
BeiGene's 2024 revenue could exceed Hengrui, marking the official transition of China's innovative pharmaceutical industry from the old generation to the new one. Reasonable market value for BeiGene is US$19-27.5bn.
Current valuation cannot reflect strong fundamentals.As BeiGene has established a convincing profit model, the market turmoil actually provides investors with a good opportunity to buy the stock at low price.


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q2 - It Is Time to Open a New Chapter in China's Pharmaceutical Industry

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index: Healthcare Is Still the Most Under-Represented Industry Group

For a long time, Healthcare has been the most under-represented industry group and I believe it is sensible to expect more Healthcare names to be...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK CEO & Director Dealings (17th Dec 2024): BeiGene, China Wantian, Super Hi Int'l/Haidilao

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. These insights also flag those companies where...

David Blennerhassett

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Growing Non-GAAP Profit

Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY). The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn,...

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

BRUKINSA's QoQ growth slowed in 24Q3, but still outperformed peers.Full-year revenue forecast adjusted to $3.7 billion.Peak sales projected at...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q2 - It Is Time to Open a New Chapter in China's Pharmaceutical Industry

BeiGene's strong Q2 results make breakeven possible in Q4.BRUKINSA may surpass Calquence in sales next year.BeiGene is a new king in China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index: Healthcare Is Still the Most Under-Represented Industry Group

For a long time, Healthcare has been the most under-represented industry group and I believe it is sensible to expect more Healthcare names to be...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK CEO & Director Dealings (17th Dec 2024): BeiGene, China Wantian, Super Hi Int'l/Haidilao

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. These insights also flag those companies where...

David Blennerhassett

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Growing Non-GAAP Profit

Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY). The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn,...

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

​BRUKINSA's QoQ growth slowed in 24Q3, but still outperformed peers.Full-year revenue forecast adjusted to $3.7 billion.Peak sales projected at...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q2 - It Is Time to Open a New Chapter in China's Pharmaceutical Industry

​BeiGene's strong Q2 results make breakeven possible in Q4.BRUKINSA may surpass Calquence in sales next year.BeiGene is a new king in China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

BRUKINSA's QoQ growth slowed in 24Q3, but still outperformed peers.Full-year revenue forecast adjusted to $3.7 billion.Peak sales projected at...

BeiGene's strong Q2 results make breakeven possible in Q4.BRUKINSA may surpass Calquence in sales next year.BeiGene is a new king in China's...