IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> is the second-largest online music platform after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> as measured by users and revenue in China. The cornerstone product is <em>NetEase Cloud Music</em> that delivers diverse music and music-inspired content and provides interactive community features. Cloud Village is braving the moribund Chinese IPO market by pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $1 billion, according to press reports. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-initiation-musical-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52266" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Initiation: Musical Shares</a>, we stated that at first sight, Cloud Village performance seems poor as its high growth has come at the cost of negative gross margin and cash burn. However, Cloud Village is on the cusp of turning around its performance due to a fundamental change in its cost structure. We concluded that Cloud Village has the potential to shed its underdog status vs the much larger Tencent Music.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-play-list" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55506" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Play List</a>, we examined the 1Q21 results and the recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. We noted that while Cloud Village expects to remain unprofitable over the next three years, the 1Q21 results and the recent SAMR ruling on Tencent Music support our view that Cloud Village is on track to combine its high growth with an improving cost structure. </p>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Cloud Village's potential valuation range. </p></div></div></div>


Cloud Village (CLV HK) is the second-largest online music platform after Tencent Music (TME US) as measured by users and revenue in China. The cornerstone product is NetEase Cloud Music that delivers diverse music and music-inspired content and provides interactive community features. Cloud Village is braving the moribund Chinese IPO market by pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $1 billion, according to press reports. 
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Initiation: Musical Shares, we stated that at first sight, Cloud Village performance seems poor as its high growth has come at the cost of negative gross margin and cash burn. However, Cloud Village is on the cusp of turning around its performance due to a fundamental change in its cost structure. We concluded that Cloud Village has the potential to shed its underdog status vs the much larger Tencent Music.  
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Play List, we examined the 1Q21 results and the recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. We noted that while Cloud Village expects to remain unprofitable over the next three years, the 1Q21 results and the recent SAMR ruling on Tencent Music support our view that Cloud Village is on track to combine its high growth with an improving cost structure. 
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Cloud Village's potential valuation range. 

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation First-Look

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a>  is a leading music streaming platform in China and the company is backed-by NetEase, one of the largest games and entertainment companies in China. The company has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) and according to news media outlets, the company plans to raise proceeds of about US$1bn.</p><p>In our previous insight on the company’s IPO, we examined Cloud Village’s business model, revenues and margins. We also concluded that the evolving regulatory landscape in China should favour Cloud Village where China’s largest music live streaming platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a>  (a market share of 72.8% vs 20.5% for Cloud Village) has been ordered by the country’s regulators to give up on their exclusive music licensing agreements with leading global music labels including Warner Music Group (WMG), Universal Music Group (UMG) and Sony Music.</p><p>Cloud Village has received the approval for their HKEx IPO and on the latest PHIP filing (dated 01<sup>st</sup> August 2021), Cloud Village has provided 1Q2021 results, and this insight focuses on the new data points from the PHIP filing. The company’s revenues grew 74.6% YoY to RMB1.5bn in 1Q2021 driven by growth in revenue from both online music services and Social entertainment services and others.</p>

Cloud Village (CLV HK)  is a leading music streaming platform in China and the company is backed-by NetEase, one of the largest games and entertainment companies in China. The company has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) and according to news media outlets, the company plans to raise proceeds of about US$1bn.In our previous insight on the company’s IPO, we examined Cloud Village’s business model, revenues and margins. We also concluded that the evolving regulatory landscape in China should favour Cloud Village where China’s largest music live streaming platform Tencent Music (TME US)  (a market share of 72.8% vs 20.5% for Cloud Village) has been ordered by the country’s regulators to give up on their exclusive music licensing agreements with leading global music labels including Warner Music Group (WMG), Universal Music Group (UMG) and Sony Music.Cloud Village has received the approval for their HKEx IPO and on the latest PHIP filing (dated 01st August 2021), Cloud Village has provided 1Q2021 results, and this insight focuses on the new data points from the PHIP filing. The company’s revenues grew 74.6% YoY to RMB1.5bn in 1Q2021 driven by growth in revenue from both online music services and Social entertainment services and others.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> is the second-largest online music platform after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> as measured by users and revenue in China. The cornerstone product is <em>NetEase Cloud Music</em> that delivers diverse music and music-inspired content and provides interactive community features. Founded by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1" rel="noopener">NetEase Inc (NTES US)</a>, <em>NetEase Cloud Music</em>, has been operating as a stand-alone business since October 2016. Cloud Village is braving the moribund Chinese IPO market by pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $1 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-initiation-musical-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52266" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Initiation: Musical Shares</a>, we stated that at first sight, Cloud Village performance seems poor as its high growth has come at the cost of negative gross margin and cash burn. However, Cloud Village is on the cusp of turning around its performance due to a fundamental change in its cost structure. We concluded that Cloud Village has the potential to shed its underdog status vs the much larger Tencent Music.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we examine the 1Q21 results and the recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. While Cloud Village expects to remain unprofitable over the next three years, the 1Q21 results and the recent SAMR ruling on Tencent Music support our view that Cloud Village is on track to combine its high growth with an improving cost structure. With investors understandably wary of Chinese IPOs due to China’s regulatory onslaught, Cloud Village has the potential to entice investors to give Chinese IPOs a renewed look.   </p></div>

Cloud Village (CLV HK) is the second-largest online music platform after Tencent Music (TME US) as measured by users and revenue in China. The cornerstone product is NetEase Cloud Music that delivers diverse music and music-inspired content and provides interactive community features. Founded by NetEase Inc (NTES US), NetEase Cloud Music, has been operating as a stand-alone business since October 2016. Cloud Village is braving the moribund Chinese IPO market by pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $1 billion, according to press reports. In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Initiation: Musical Shares, we stated that at first sight, Cloud Village performance seems poor as its high growth has come at the cost of negative gross margin and cash burn. However, Cloud Village is on the cusp of turning around its performance due to a fundamental change in its cost structure. We concluded that Cloud Village has the potential to shed its underdog status vs the much larger Tencent Music.  In this note, we examine the 1Q21 results and the recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. While Cloud Village expects to remain unprofitable over the next three years, the 1Q21 results and the recent SAMR ruling on Tencent Music support our view that Cloud Village is on track to combine its high growth with an improving cost structure. With investors understandably wary of Chinese IPOs due to China’s regulatory onslaught, Cloud Village has the potential to entice investors to give Chinese IPOs a renewed look.   

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Play List

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>The State Administration for Market Regulation orders Tencent (700 HK) to terminate exclusive music copyrights.</li>
<li>However, independent musician is exempted from the ban on exclusive contracts.</li>
<li>Cloud Village has already got some copyright usage rights that TME exclusively owned before 2020.</li>
<li>The real problems are the mature market and the time competition from short video.</li>
</ul>


The State Administration for Market Regulation orders Tencent (700 HK) to terminate exclusive music copyrights.
However, independent musician is exempted from the ban on exclusive contracts.
Cloud Village has already got some copyright usage rights that TME exclusively owned before 2020.
The real problems are the mature market and the time competition from short video.


Tencent Music (TME): Penalty Not Fatal, But Music Market Bad Enough

<ul>
<li>The stock price has declined much in 1H21, especially in the past four trading days.</li>
<li>Another wave of pandemic started in China.</li>
<li>Tencent has six of the top games in China.</li>
<li>The China game industry grew steadily in 1H21.</li>
</ul>


The stock price has declined much in 1H21, especially in the past four trading days.
Another wave of pandemic started in China.
Tencent has six of the top games in China.
The China game industry grew steadily in 1H21.


Tencent (700 HK): Pandemic Spreading in China Again, Cancel Travel and Play Game

China

Tencent Music Entertainment operates an online music entertainment platform in China. The Company offers platform that comprises of online music, recording, music-centric live streaming enabling users to discover, listen, sing, watch, perform, and socialize music.

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Tencent Music (TME US)

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation First-Look

Cloud Village is braving the moribund Chinese IPO market by pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $1 bn. In this note, we present our forecasts...

Arun George

Cloud Village IPO (PHIP): Getting Better

Cloud Village’s paid user numbers have grown steadily over the past 2-3 years, and we expect the company’s paid users to continue to expand with...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Play List

With investors understandably wary of Chinese IPOs due to China’s regulatory onslaught, Cloud Village has the potential to entice investors to give...

Arun George

Tencent Music (TME): Penalty Not Fatal, But Music Market Bad Enough

The authorities order Tencent to terminate exclusive music copyrights. However, independent musician is exempted. The real problems are the mature...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700 HK): Pandemic Spreading in China Again, Cancel Travel and Play Game

The stock price has declined much in 1H21. Another wave of pandemic started in China. Tencent has six of the top games in China. The China game...

Ming Lu

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