Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reviewed our PDD investment thesis trying to incorporate and make sense of various channel checks and sell-side’s research which are often inconsistent and even conflicting.</li>
<li>While there are many unknowns and ambiguities, we are convinced the street still significantly underestimates PDD’s growth outlook for 2H23, and fails to see a slowdown in FY24.</li>
<li>Our price target remain unchanged as lower target P/E multiple (to reflect slowdown prospect) is offset by higher FY23 earnings which flow to outer years.  </li>
</ul>


We reviewed our PDD investment thesis trying to incorporate and make sense of various channel checks and sell-side’s research which are often inconsistent and even conflicting.
While there are many unknowns and ambiguities, we are convinced the street still significantly underestimates PDD’s growth outlook for 2H23, and fails to see a slowdown in FY24.
Our price target remain unchanged as lower target P/E multiple (to reflect slowdown prospect) is offset by higher FY23 earnings which flow to outer years.  


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>3690 HK/TCOM US: Online catering is robust in 2Q24, while online tourism diminishing quickly（+/-）</li>
<li>1024 HK: Source said Kuaishou's video generation LLM, Kling AI, has surpassed one million total application users.（+）</li>
<li>3690 HK:Meituan may launch food delivery service in Riyadh in September or October this year (+)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK/TCOM US: Online catering is robust in 2Q24, while online tourism diminishing quickly（+/-）
1024 HK: Source said Kuaishou's video generation LLM, Kling AI, has surpassed one million total application users.（+）
3690 HK:Meituan may launch food delivery service in Riyadh in September or October this year (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Grizzly Research's track record, especially with accusations against well-known Chinese ADRs like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc-bc4e7cc1-66e0-4426-a8f1-edc72f314237" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gaotu-techedu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28069:1" rel="noopener">Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US)</a>, hasn't been successful lately.</li>
<li>Despite past setbacks, the company has recently targeted another renowned Chinese ADR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings (PDD US)</a>.</li>
<li>Grizzly Research alleges that Pinduoduo's shopping app, "TEMU," is a harmful malware/spyware secretly extracting user data.</li>
</ul>


Grizzly Research's track record, especially with accusations against well-known Chinese ADRs like NIO (NIO US), ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US), and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US), hasn't been successful lately.
Despite past setbacks, the company has recently targeted another renowned Chinese ADR, PDD Holdings (PDD US).
Grizzly Research alleges that Pinduoduo's shopping app, "TEMU," is a harmful malware/spyware secretly extracting user data.


Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>PDD reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 28% and 58% vs. our est., and 21% and 44% vs. cons., respectively. </li>
<li>We raised our 2H23 forecasts for PDD because: 1) GMV growth hasn’t been significantly impacted by the current competitive landscape; 2) take rate could maintain a high level due to </li>
<li>Continuous optimization of ad products; and 3) new businesses such as Temu and Kuaituantuan (快团团) have fair growth. We maintain BUY and raise our TP to US$ 107.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported CY2Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net profit 28% and 58% vs. our est., and 21% and 44% vs. cons., respectively. 
We raised our 2H23 forecasts for PDD because: 1) GMV growth hasn’t been significantly impacted by the current competitive landscape; 2) take rate could maintain a high level due to 
Continuous optimization of ad products; and 3) new businesses such as Temu and Kuaituantuan (快团团) have fair growth. We maintain BUY and raise our TP to US$ 107.


[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$107)]: Raise TP for GMV, Take Rate, Temu and Kuaituantuan

<ul>
<li>PDD reported blowout 2Q results with bottom line beating consensus by 40% thanks to stronger domestic marketplaces business, narrower losses incurred by TEMU and higher other income.</li>
<li>2Q results cleared much of our concern around PDD’s bottom line growth and we now see 2Q as the low point of earnings growth in FY23.</li>
<li>We believe the company will report $9 billion net profit for FY23 and expect rounds of earnings revision by the street will further lift share price. US $120 price target.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported blowout 2Q results with bottom line beating consensus by 40% thanks to stronger domestic marketplaces business, narrower losses incurred by TEMU and higher other income.
2Q results cleared much of our concern around PDD’s bottom line growth and we now see 2Q as the low point of earnings growth in FY23.
We believe the company will report $9 billion net profit for FY23 and expect rounds of earnings revision by the street will further lift share price. US $120 price target.


China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters

We believe the street still significantly underestimates PDD's growth outlook for 2H23 but fails to see a slowdown in FY24. Getting the growth...

Eric Chen

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US

Online catering is thriving, while online tourism is declining. Kuaishou's video generation AI has over one million users. Meituan may expand food...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo: Short Seller, Grizzly Research Raises Spyware Concerns About TEMU

Grizzly Research published a short-seller report on PDD, primarily accusing the shopping app “TEMU” of being malware/spyware capable of...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri