Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see further upside to our previous above-consensus 4Q23 results estimates on low base, enhanced monetization, and faster TEMU expansion.</li>
<li>That said, we believe market focus already shifted to outlook for 2024, in particular an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern around US curb on TEMU.</li>
<li>30% share price correction is pricing in the above scenario and valuation should gradually improve as PDD delivers back-loaded bottom line growth in 2024.</li>
</ul>


We see further upside to our previous above-consensus 4Q23 results estimates on low base, enhanced monetization, and faster TEMU expansion.
That said, we believe market focus already shifted to outlook for 2024, in particular an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern around US curb on TEMU.
30% share price correction is pricing in the above scenario and valuation should gradually improve as PDD delivers back-loaded bottom line growth in 2024.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Pricing in an Imminent Slowdown

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We expect PDD to report CY4Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net income 14.3% and 21.2% vs. consensus. Main model changes are increased Temu revenue per order and PDD take-rate;</li>
<li>Temu continued increasing prices despite the holiday shopping season, and merchants reported that Temu began charging service fees. PDD upgraded its ads tools, which we expect boosted China take rate.</li>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and raise our TP to US$ 178.</li>
</ul>


We expect PDD to report CY4Q23 top-line and non-GAAP net income 14.3% and 21.2% vs. consensus. Main model changes are increased Temu revenue per order and PDD take-rate;
Temu continued increasing prices despite the holiday shopping season, and merchants reported that Temu began charging service fees. PDD upgraded its ads tools, which we expect boosted China take rate.
We maintain our BUY rating and raise our TP to US$ 178.


[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$178) TP Change]: Fine-Tuned Extraction of Merchant Profits

<ul>
<li>We expect PDD to report the highest growth in topline for 4Q23 over last three years. In particular, we believe its bottom line will beat by wide margin.</li>
<li>But easy days are gone for PDD’s domestic e-commerce business and high base will kick in from 1Q24, resulting in tough comps, notable deceleration and potentially short-term share price volatility.</li>
<li>We see 20% upside to current PDD valuation by assigning 20xPE to our US$12 billion adjusted net profit estimate for 2024.</li>
</ul>


We expect PDD to report the highest growth in topline for 4Q23 over last three years. In particular, we believe its bottom line will beat by wide margin.
But easy days are gone for PDD’s domestic e-commerce business and high base will kick in from 1Q24, resulting in tough comps, notable deceleration and potentially short-term share price volatility.
We see 20% upside to current PDD valuation by assigning 20xPE to our US$12 billion adjusted net profit estimate for 2024.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Another Strong Beat Around the Corner

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>PDD Holdings Inc. surpassed Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 68.8 billion, marking a 94% year-on-year increase.</li><li>In the third quarter, they responded to a growing demand for consumption upgrades by introducing impactful promotions like the Summer Carnival, Duo Duo Harvest Festival, National Brand Festival, and Duo Duo Reading Month.</li><li>PDD also collaborated with over 100 Chinese national brands for the National Goods Festival, promoting top brands through live streaming sessions.</li></ul>

PDD Holdings Inc. surpassed Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 68.8 billion, marking a 94% year-on-year increase.In the third quarter, they responded to a growing demand for consumption upgrades by introducing impactful promotions like the Summer Carnival, Duo Duo Harvest Festival, National Brand Festival, and Duo Duo Reading Month.PDD also collaborated with over 100 Chinese national brands for the National Goods Festival, promoting top brands through live streaming sessions.

PDD Holdings Inc.: Exploring the Game-Changing Strategies Behind Their Success! - Major Drivers

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PDD diversified into ‘local life’ businesses in December 2023, but stopped these businesses within two weeks.</li>
<li>We believe PDD’s low price advantage does not work in Meituan-like ‘local life’ and the top performer Meituan is hard to fight.</li>
<li>We believe the stock price has an upside of 88% for year end 2024.</li>
</ul>


PDD diversified into ‘local life’ businesses in December 2023, but stopped these businesses within two weeks.
We believe PDD’s low price advantage does not work in Meituan-like ‘local life’ and the top performer Meituan is hard to fight.
We believe the stock price has an upside of 88% for year end 2024.


PDD (PDD US): Stopped Diversifying into ‘Local Life’ – A Rational Decision During Fast Growing

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Pricing in an Imminent Slowdown

The market is looking beyond strong 4Q23 and pricing in an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern over potential US curb on TEMU. 30% share...

Eric Chen

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$178) TP Change]: Fine-Tuned Extraction of Merchant Profits

PDD expected to report strong earnings with increased revenue and net income, driven by higher Temu revenue and improved take-rate. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Another Strong Beat Around the Corner

For 4Q23, we expect PDD to report highest revenue growth rate in 3 years and strong beat in bottom line. Yet muted earnings in 1Q24 will likely...

Eric Chen

PDD Holdings Inc.: Exploring the Game-Changing Strategies Behind Their Success! - Major Drivers

PDD Holdings Inc. surpassed Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 68.8 billion, marking a 94%...

Baptista Research

PDD (PDD US): Stopped Diversifying into ‘Local Life’ – A Rational Decision During Fast Growing

PDD stopped ‘local life’ business just two weeks after it began. We believe PDD’s low price advantage does not work in Meituan-like ‘local life’...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Pricing in an Imminent Slowdown

The market is looking beyond strong 4Q23 and pricing in an imminent slowdown in 1Q24 and renewed concern over potential US curb on TEMU. 30% share...

Eric Chen

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$178) TP Change]: Fine-Tuned Extraction of Merchant Profits

​PDD expected to report strong earnings with increased revenue and net income, driven by higher Temu revenue and improved take-rate. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Another Strong Beat Around the Corner

For 4Q23, we expect PDD to report highest revenue growth rate in 3 years and strong beat in bottom line. Yet muted earnings in 1Q24 will likely...

Eric Chen

PDD Holdings Inc.: Exploring the Game-Changing Strategies Behind Their Success! - Major Drivers

PDD Holdings Inc. surpassed Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 68.8 billion, marking a 94%...

Baptista Research

PDD (PDD US): Stopped Diversifying into ‘Local Life’ – A Rational Decision During Fast Growing

PDD stopped ‘local life’ business just two weeks after it began. We believe PDD’s low price advantage does not work in Meituan-like ‘local life’...

Ming Lu

PDD expected to report strong earnings with increased revenue and net income, driven by higher Temu revenue and improved take-rate. Analysts...