Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market has lingering concern about substantial slowdown in PDD’s growth and has been pricing in the outlook for most part of the year.</li>
<li>2Q results did signal imminent growth deceleration, and management’s blunt yet honest comments about the pressure on margin further stoke fears.</li>
<li>We regard 1/3 market cap wipe-out after the results as over-reaction. While risks have been reflected to large extent, we do not expect a meaningful re-rating until 2H25.</li>
</ul>


The market has lingering concern about substantial slowdown in PDD’s growth and has been pricing in the outlook for most part of the year.
2Q results did signal imminent growth deceleration, and management’s blunt yet honest comments about the pressure on margin further stoke fears.
We regard 1/3 market cap wipe-out after the results as over-reaction. While risks have been reflected to large extent, we do not expect a meaningful re-rating until 2H25.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Oversold on Concerns About Slowdown

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>The "non-business factors" mentioned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings (PDD US)</a> 's earnings call likely refer to potential political and policy risks in the U.S. due to the upcoming presidential elections.</li>
<li>Temu, PDD Holdings' global online shopping platform, has become the most downloaded shopping app in the U.S., significantly disrupting the local retail market.</li>
<li>PDD's rapid and disruptive growth has already led to litigation in the US, and political pressure could increase if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.</li>
</ul>


The "non-business factors" mentioned in PDD Holdings (PDD US) 's earnings call likely refer to potential political and policy risks in the U.S. due to the upcoming presidential elections.
Temu, PDD Holdings' global online shopping platform, has become the most downloaded shopping app in the U.S., significantly disrupting the local retail market.
PDD's rapid and disruptive growth has already led to litigation in the US, and political pressure could increase if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.


PDD Holdings (PDD US) : Could U.S. Elections Impact Temu's Dominance?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings (PDD US)</a> shares fell 28% on Monday after a 3% revenue miss, with shares dropping an additional 4% yesterday.</li>
<li>The results themselves weren’t bad enough to justify such a sharp price reaction.</li>
<li>However, management’s comments on slower growth and a potential drop in profits triggered a significant sell-off.</li>
</ul>



PDD Holdings (PDD US) shares fell 28% on Monday after a 3% revenue miss, with shares dropping an additional 4% yesterday.
The results themselves weren’t bad enough to justify such a sharp price reaction.
However, management’s comments on slower growth and a potential drop in profits triggered a significant sell-off.


Pinduoduo: Anticipating Slower Growth And Potential Profit Dip

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>PDD reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating income and GAAP net income (3.9%), (1.2%) and (4.4%) below our estimates, and (2.9%), 12% and 16% above consensus. </li>
<li>We believe PDD's upgrade in its ecosystem and infrastructure is long overdue. Such investment would support its growth, especially in overseas. </li>
<li>Trading at 6.4x 2025 PE, we believe PDD is undervalued. We reiterate BUY and place it as TOP PICK of China's e-commerce sector.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating income and GAAP net income (3.9%), (1.2%) and (4.4%) below our estimates, and (2.9%), 12% and 16% above consensus. 
We believe PDD's upgrade in its ecosystem and infrastructure is long overdue. Such investment would support its growth, especially in overseas. 
Trading at 6.4x 2025 PE, we believe PDD is undervalued. We reiterate BUY and place it as TOP PICK of China's e-commerce sector.


[Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY, TP US$160) TP Change]: Investment Means Continued High Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (26 Aug) 2Q24 results: revenue was up 86% YoY (2Q23: 66%; 1Q24: 131%) to RMB97.1bn, 3% shy of Bloomberg consensus estimates.</li><li>Both online marketing services and others and transaction services fees were 3% short of consensus, which in our view can be attributed to intensified industry competition, but should be partly anticipated.</li><li>Non-GAAP net profit increased by 126% YoY to RMB34.4bn, 14% ahead of consensus.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PDD Holdings (PDD) announced (26 Aug) 2Q24 results: revenue was up 86% YoY (2Q23: 66%; 1Q24: 131%) to RMB97.1bn, 3% shy of Bloomberg consensus estimates.Both online marketing services and others and transaction services fees were 3% short of consensus, which in our view can be attributed to intensified industry competition, but should be partly anticipated.Non-GAAP net profit increased by 126% YoY to RMB34.4bn, 14% ahead of consensus.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Oversold on Concerns About Slowdown

2Q results did signal imminent slowdown in growth which the market has been pricing in for most part of the year. The stock was oversold, yet we...

Eric Chen