Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sea's share price rose 14% yesterday after beating consensus revenue by 1.4%, but this seems unwarranted as Sea lowered the lower-end of the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m to $8.5bn.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, most of this price reaction could be short covering as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>’s results were rather disappointing on multiple fronts.</li>
<li>With Free Fire faltering fast, we think Sea could get washed back to rough seas before reaching calm waters.  </li>
</ul>


Sea's share price rose 14% yesterday after beating consensus revenue by 1.4%, but this seems unwarranted as Sea lowered the lower-end of the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m to $8.5bn.
Nonetheless, most of this price reaction could be short covering as Sea Ltd (SE US)’s results were rather disappointing on multiple fronts.
With Free Fire faltering fast, we think Sea could get washed back to rough seas before reaching calm waters.  


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 23rd Dec 2021, Tencent declared a special dividend in the form of distribution in specie of shares of JD.com, making Prosus the third largest shareholder with a 4.2% stake.</li>
<li>The actual settlement only happened on 25th Mar. On that day, the bulk of the stock that Tencent distributed moved into CCASS with the exception of shares held by Prosus.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the shareholding pattern and increase in shares held in CCASS.</li>
</ul>


On 23rd Dec 2021, Tencent declared a special dividend in the form of distribution in specie of shares of JD.com, making Prosus the third largest shareholder with a 4.2% stake.
The actual settlement only happened on 25th Mar. On that day, the bulk of the stock that Tencent distributed moved into CCASS with the exception of shares held by Prosus.
In this note, we talk about the shareholding pattern and increase in shares held in CCASS.


JD.com Tencent Distribution - All Prosus Stock Worth US$3.5bn Could Be in CCASS Now

Equity Capital Markets

JD.com Inc (ADR) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.</li>
<li>While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in order to decipher the impact on JD.com’s shares once the distribution is settled to determine who the sellers could be.</li>
</ul>


On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.
While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in order to decipher the impact on JD.com’s shares once the distribution is settled to determine who the sellers could be.


JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang

<ul>
<li>We are outright negative on regional e-commerce names leading into earnings as a small miss could spark a significant sell-off in the current market conditions.</li>
<li>Even though most regional EC names including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> are down by around 65%, we fear that there’s further downside risk in a rising interest rate environment.</li>
<li>In the meantime, we expect Coupang to miss 4Q21 revenue when they report on Thursday. In addition, Coupang has the biggest downside potential as it is expensive compared to peers.</li>
</ul>


We are outright negative on regional e-commerce names leading into earnings as a small miss could spark a significant sell-off in the current market conditions.
Even though most regional EC names including Coupang (CPNG US) are down by around 65%, we fear that there’s further downside risk in a rising interest rate environment.
In the meantime, we expect Coupang to miss 4Q21 revenue when they report on Thursday. In addition, Coupang has the biggest downside potential as it is expensive compared to peers.


Coupang Earnings Preview: More Room to Fall

<ul>
<li>On 2nd Dec 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).</li>
<li>On 24th Mar 2021, SEC had issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on HFCAA. This was a follow up on the HFCAA.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the final amendments and its possible timelines and implications, and a possible trade setup.</li>
</ul>


On 2nd Dec 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
On 24th Mar 2021, SEC had issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on HFCAA. This was a follow up on the HFCAA.
In this note, we'll talk about the final amendments and its possible timelines and implications, and a possible trade setup.


China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Sea Ltd: In Rough Seas

Sea's share price rose 14% yesterday after beating consensus revenue by 1.4%, but this seems unwarranted as Sea lowered the lower-end of the e...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JD.com Tencent Distribution - All Prosus Stock Worth US$3.5bn Could Be in CCASS Now

In Dec 21, Tencent declared a special dividend via distribution in specie of JD.com shares, making Prosus the 3rd largest shareholder. Some shares...

Sumeet Singh

JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang

On 23rd Dec 21, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent. The shares...

Sumeet Singh

Coupang Earnings Preview: More Room to Fall

With Coupang possibly having the biggest downside potential among leading EC players in the region, we would choose it over others names to have a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

On 2nd Dec 2021, SEC issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. In this note we will talk about the final...

Sumeet Singh

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