Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on the correlation between revenue and China’s online retail sales, we estimate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>’s Q2 revenue to beat consensus by around RMB 2.4bn.</li>
<li>Our cost estimates translate the above revenue to an OP of RMB 4.0bn in 2Q22 compared to RMB 3.6bn for consensus.</li>
<li>Even though consensus seems to have over-corrected its 2Q22 assumptions, it is still hung up on old assumptions for the medium term.</li>
</ul>


Based on the correlation between revenue and China’s online retail sales, we estimate Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s Q2 revenue to beat consensus by around RMB 2.4bn.
Our cost estimates translate the above revenue to an OP of RMB 4.0bn in 2Q22 compared to RMB 3.6bn for consensus.
Even though consensus seems to have over-corrected its 2Q22 assumptions, it is still hung up on old assumptions for the medium term.


Pinduoduo: A Beat Likely in 2Q22, But Medium-Term Consensus Is Still Hung Up On Old Assumptions

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

WM Motor Technology Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wm-motor-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29225:1" rel="noopener">WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH)</a> (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. 
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


WM Motor Holding IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth Driven by Its SUV and Mainstream Focus

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, China Tourism managed to price its IPO above the mid-point.</li>
<li>There were a host of placements and blocks this week across the region.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, China Tourism managed to price its IPO above the mid-point.
There were a host of placements and blocks this week across the region.


ECM Weekly (21st Aug 2022) - China Tourism, SoCar, Beauty Farm, ANZ, Max, Judo, Steadfast, Cleanaway

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, China Tourism launched its US$2.5bn IPO. </li>
<li>There were no major placements this week and it likely to remain that way in the near future owing to it being earnings season.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, China Tourism launched its US$2.5bn IPO. 
There were no major placements this week and it likely to remain that way in the near future owing to it being earnings season.


ECM Weekly (14th Aug 2022) - China Tourism, A/H Listing, Hongjiu Fruit, Socar, Betagro, ThaiBev, GQG

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn.</li>
<li>Prior to the deal launch, we’ve had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.</li>
<li>Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much over the first month.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn.
Prior to the deal launch, we’ve had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.
Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much over the first month.


Past A/H Listings Performance - Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo: A Beat Likely in 2Q22, But Medium-Term Consensus Is Still Hung Up On Old Assumptions

Although this seems like a nice beat to advantage from, we are a bit sceptical on a long Pinduoduo position. We think this beat could be temporary...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

WM Motor Holding IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth Driven by Its SUV and Mainstream Focus

WM Motor Technology Co Ltd is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (21st Aug 2022) - China Tourism, SoCar, Beauty Farm, ANZ, Max, Judo, Steadfast, Cleanaway

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (14th Aug 2022) - China Tourism, A/H Listing, Hongjiu Fruit, Socar, Betagro, ThaiBev, GQG

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Past A/H Listings Performance - Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much

China Tourism is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn. Ahead of its...

Sumeet Singh

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