Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>The stock price has plunged since October 2020.</li>
<li>Over the past few days, BABA became a casualty of the policy against tutoring companies.</li>
<li>However, we believe the China online retail has been recovering.</li>
<li>We also believe the stock has an upside of 27% in nine months.</li>
</ul>


The stock price has plunged since October 2020.
Over the past few days, BABA became a casualty of the policy against tutoring companies.
However, we believe the China online retail has been recovering.
We also believe the stock has an upside of 27% in nine months.


Alibaba (BABA): Over Impacted Before Quarter Result

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> impulsive decline does warn of lower levels after a bounce with a focus on selling a near term bounce. Spike in sell volume is a negative. Oversold RSI does warn of a reaction bounce for brave traders. Trend resistance now lies at 280 as the forward level to clear. As long as this barrier remains intact the trend is down.

Meituan (3690 HK) impulsive decline does warn of lower levels after a bounce with a focus on selling a near term bounce. Spike in sell volume is a negative. Oversold RSI does warn of a reaction bounce for brave traders. Trend resistance now lies at 280 as the forward level to clear. As long as this barrier remains intact the trend is down.

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>The market is looking for a signal of an easing of regulatory pressures on China BigTech</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> is in the eye of the regulatory storm, first with the crackdown on the Ant IPO, then with the anti-trust restrictions on Big Tech and more recently with China regulatory bodies focusing on US listed China tech</li>
<li>The share price is now close to the pandemic low of March 2020, having fallen a further 20% since the end of April</li>
<li>Alibaba valuations are compelling, even versus its China BigTech peers, and, less surprisingly, compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>
</li>
<li>Alibaba’s market capitalization to revenue discount to its core peers has narrowed somewhat, as Chinese regulators have extended their focus on BigTech beyond the Alibaba group, but remains elevated</li>
<li>Furthermore, Alibaba’s premium to Amazon in terms of market capitalization to revenue has totally dissipated</li>
<li>We stick with our positive view on Alibaba and we believe that, even though regulatory risks have yet to recede, the secular growth story - albeit dented - in China tech still holds and that in the case of Alibaba, its modest valuations stand out</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on Alibaba include further regulatory hurdles, such as market share limitations and tighter controls on big data, as well as client loss as a result of these regulatory limitations</li>
</ul>


The market is looking for a signal of an easing of regulatory pressures on China BigTech

Alibaba Group (BABA US) is in the eye of the regulatory storm, first with the crackdown on the Ant IPO, then with the anti-trust restrictions on Big Tech and more recently with China regulatory bodies focusing on US listed China tech
The share price is now close to the pandemic low of March 2020, having fallen a further 20% since the end of April
Alibaba valuations are compelling, even versus its China BigTech peers, and, less surprisingly, compared to Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Alibaba’s market capitalization to revenue discount to its core peers has narrowed somewhat, as Chinese regulators have extended their focus on BigTech beyond the Alibaba group, but remains elevated
Furthermore, Alibaba’s premium to Amazon in terms of market capitalization to revenue has totally dissipated
We stick with our positive view on Alibaba and we believe that, even though regulatory risks have yet to recede, the secular growth story - albeit dented - in China tech still holds and that in the case of Alibaba, its modest valuations stand out
Risks to our positive view on Alibaba include further regulatory hurdles, such as market share limitations and tighter controls on big data, as well as client loss as a result of these regulatory limitations


Alibaba (BABA US) – Looking for a Reprieve from Regulatory Headwinds

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Dingdang Health Technology Gro / Equity Capital Markets

On June 22, 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdang-health-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33528:1" rel="noopener">Dingdang Health Technology Group (DDH HK)</a> submitted the prospectus to HKEX and officially started its IPO process. If all goes well, Dingdang would become another listed digital healthcare service provider after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>. However, in the face of fierce competition, Dingdang's future looks challenging. This insight mainly analyzed the concerns of the Company that worth investors’ attention.

On June 22, 2021, Dingdang Health Technology Group (DDH HK) submitted the prospectus to HKEX and officially started its IPO process. If all goes well, Dingdang would become another listed digital healthcare service provider after Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK). However, in the face of fierce competition, Dingdang's future looks challenging. This insight mainly analyzed the concerns of the Company that worth investors’ attention.

Pre-IPO Dingdang Health Technology - The Future Looks Challenging

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Jul 16. The aggregate short value for equities increased by $1,542m (+2.2%) WoW and increased by $434m (+0.6%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($5,203m, +6.8% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($2,286m, +1.6% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,097m, +17.2% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,977m, +18.2% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,845m, +2.6% WoW).<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/449/original/Hong_Kong_Market_Short_Position_Value_%28line%29_and_1W_Changes_%28bar%29_%28%24m%292021-07-24+11_39_55.png?1627273518" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220449"></figure></section>

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Jul 16. The aggregate short value for equities increased by $1,542m (+2.2%) WoW and increased by $434m (+0.6%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($5,203m, +6.8% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($2,286m, +1.6% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,097m, +17.2% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,977m, +18.2% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,845m, +2.6% WoW).

HK Short Interest: Short Spiked for Bilibili

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Alibaba (BABA): Over Impacted Before Quarter Result

The stock price has plunged since last October. However, we believe the China online retail has been recovering. We also believe the stock has an...

Ming Lu

Meituan Sell Levels on a Bounce

Meituan (3690 HK) impulsive decline does warn of lower levels with a focus on selling a near term bounce. Sell volume is a negative. Oversold RSI...

Thomas Schroeder

Alibaba (BABA US) – Looking for a Reprieve from Regulatory Headwinds

Alibaba remains in the Chinese regulators' sights, with the share price falling further in 3Q21; yet its valuations, relative to its China peers,...

Victor Galliano

Pre-IPO Dingdang Health Technology - The Future Looks Challenging

The article mainly analyzed the concerns that worth the investors' attention about Dingdang Health in terms of fierce competition, financial...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Short Interest: Short Spiked for Bilibili

We highlight Bilibili (9262 HK) as the stock with the biggest increase in short position on a Week-on-week basis based on our analysis in the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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