Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the past several days, there have been numerous local media outlets that have mentioned about a potential launch of Apple Pay in Korea in the coming months. </li>
<li>We believe the launch of Apple Pay in Korea could occur in the next 6-12 months and this is likely to further heighten the competitive pressures on Kakao Pay.</li>
<li>We continue to be concerned about the lofty valuation multiples of Kakao Pay as it is trading at 165x P/E (2024E) and 5.1x P/B (2024E). </li>
</ul>


In the past several days, there have been numerous local media outlets that have mentioned about a potential launch of Apple Pay in Korea in the coming months. 
We believe the launch of Apple Pay in Korea could occur in the next 6-12 months and this is likely to further heighten the competitive pressures on Kakao Pay.
We continue to be concerned about the lofty valuation multiples of Kakao Pay as it is trading at 165x P/E (2024E) and 5.1x P/B (2024E). 


The Launch of Apple Pay Is Likely to Result in Market Share Losses for Kakao Pay

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.</li>
<li>As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.</li>
<li>Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure


Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The possibility that Ord's current outperformance remains a structural trend is not high because of the 2P discount close to its YTD high and a price reversal with 1P.</li>
<li>This price reversal has been a strong signal for reversion because 2P receives more dividends by ₩50 per share along with a liquidity premium compared to 1P.</li>
<li>Also, the dividend yield difference with Ord is not small from a historical point of view. So, we should expect 2P reversion not only to 1P but Ord.</li>
</ul>


The possibility that Ord's current outperformance remains a structural trend is not high because of the 2P discount close to its YTD high and a price reversal with 1P.
This price reversal has been a strong signal for reversion because 2P receives more dividends by ₩50 per share along with a liquidity premium compared to 1P.
Also, the dividend yield difference with Ord is not small from a historical point of view. So, we should expect 2P reversion not only to 1P but Ord.


Hyundai Motor 2P Reversion Trading Relative to Ordinary

<ul>
<li>If short-selling accounts for more than 30% of total daily trade volume, it will be newly designated as an overheated short-selling stock, resulting in a one-day short-selling ban.</li>
<li>If the stock price falls by more than 5% on the day of the short-selling restriction, the restriction period is automatically extended by one more day.</li>
<li>We should pay attention to a possible increase in the trading volume of single-stock futures (SSF) due to short-selling bans, which can result in a more significant basis distortion.</li>
</ul>


If short-selling accounts for more than 30% of total daily trade volume, it will be newly designated as an overheated short-selling stock, resulting in a one-day short-selling ban.
If the stock price falls by more than 5% on the day of the short-selling restriction, the restriction period is automatically extended by one more day.
We should pay attention to a possible increase in the trading volume of single-stock futures (SSF) due to short-selling bans, which can result in a more significant basis distortion.


Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year

<ul>
<li>Amid a major decline in the Korean stock market (KOSPI down 19.6% YTD), one of the best outperformers has been Kia Corp (000270 KS) which is down only 2% YTD.</li>
<li>Kia Corp is well poised to continue to outperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months, mainly driven by its increasing market share for EVs globally and cheap EV/EBITDA valuation multiples.</li>
<li>The company also reported outstanding 2Q 2022 results, which should boost near-term sentiment on the stock. Kia Corp plans to launch its flagship EV9 model (large sized SUV) in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Amid a major decline in the Korean stock market (KOSPI down 19.6% YTD), one of the best outperformers has been Kia Corp (000270 KS) which is down only 2% YTD.
Kia Corp is well poised to continue to outperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months, mainly driven by its increasing market share for EVs globally and cheap EV/EBITDA valuation multiples.
The company also reported outstanding 2Q 2022 results, which should boost near-term sentiment on the stock. Kia Corp plans to launch its flagship EV9 model (large sized SUV) in 2023.


Kia Corp: The Best Performing Stock Among Top 10 Market Cap Companies in KOSPI YTD

South Korea

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

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Hyundai Motor (005387 KS)

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

Hyundai Motor 2P Reversion Trading Relative to Ordinary

This post examines the current diversion of Hyundai Motor 2P relative to Ord and argues why this is an entry point for reversion trading.

Sanghyun Park

Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year

This post details the new rules of short-selling restrictions announced today by the Financial Services Commission of Korea.

Sanghyun Park

Kia Corp: The Best Performing Stock Among Top 10 Market Cap Companies in KOSPI YTD

Kia Corp is well poised to continue to outperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months, mainly driven by its increasing market share for EVs globally and...

Douglas Kim

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The Launch of Apple Pay Is Likely to Result in Market Share Losses for Kakao Pay

We believe the launch of Apple Pay in Korea could occur in the next 6-12 months and this is likely to further heighten the competitive pressures on...

Douglas Kim

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

Hyundai Motor 2P Reversion Trading Relative to Ordinary

This post examines the current diversion of Hyundai Motor 2P relative to Ord and argues why this is an entry point for reversion trading.

Sanghyun Park

Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year

This post details the new rules of short-selling restrictions announced today by the Financial Services Commission of Korea.

Sanghyun Park

Kia Corp: The Best Performing Stock Among Top 10 Market Cap Companies in KOSPI YTD

Kia Corp is well poised to continue to outperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months, mainly driven by its increasing market share for EVs globally and...

Douglas Kim