Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.</li>
<li>In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.</li>
<li>We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.
In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.
We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The results are pretty much in line with the predictions, except for Hanwha Aerospace which made it to LARGE instead of Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance.</li>
<li>Assuming that ten names, including Hyundai Marine, were traded in a LONG/SHORT basket with equal weight, the yield from August 17 to the last close would have been 4.6%.</li>
<li>I would still approach with an equal-weighted basket trading until this Thursday. This flow trading usually loses its effect rapidly after rebalancing. So, I wouldn't carry it beyond this Thursday.</li>
</ul>


The results are pretty much in line with the predictions, except for Hanwha Aerospace which made it to LARGE instead of Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance.
Assuming that ten names, including Hyundai Marine, were traded in a LONG/SHORT basket with equal weight, the yield from August 17 to the last close would have been 4.6%.
I would still approach with an equal-weighted basket trading until this Thursday. This flow trading usually loses its effect rapidly after rebalancing. So, I wouldn't carry it beyond this Thursday.


KOSPI Size Index Migration: Official Results & Trading Approach Towards Implementation

GS Engineering & Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Eight stocks are highly likely to migrate with a substantial passive flow. Compared to the early phase of the screening period, GS Engineering &amp; Construction newly made the list.</li>
<li>Most names should show a quite substantial passive flow (x ADTV). In particular, KCC Corp and BGF Retail deserve our special attention for their expected passive impact.</li>
<li>The flow occurs on high potential migration stocks about 20 days before the effective date. So I would start building Long/Short Basket positions with the above eight names around mid-August.</li>
</ul>


Eight stocks are highly likely to migrate with a substantial passive flow. Compared to the early phase of the screening period, GS Engineering &amp; Construction newly made the list.
Most names should show a quite substantial passive flow (x ADTV). In particular, KCC Corp and BGF Retail deserve our special attention for their expected passive impact.
The flow occurs on high potential migration stocks about 20 days before the effective date. So I would start building Long/Short Basket positions with the above eight names around mid-August.


KOSPI Size Index Series Rebalancing in September: Eight Strong Targets

<ul>
<li>We generally detect an increase in the buying volume of local institutions for stocks moving from Large Cap to Mid Cap ahead of the KOSPI size index rebalancing.</li>
<li>At the last close, Mid→Large: Pan Ocean, Hyundai Mipo, BGF Retail, &amp; OCI / Large→Mid: Hanmi Science, KCC, DB Hitek, &amp; KEPCO E&amp;C
</li>
<li>The level of price impact/correlation in the last rebalancing was exceptionally high. This is reason enough for us to consider setting up a preemptive position for this rebalancing event.</li>
</ul>


We generally detect an increase in the buying volume of local institutions for stocks moving from Large Cap to Mid Cap ahead of the KOSPI size index rebalancing.
At the last close, Mid→Large: Pan Ocean, Hyundai Mipo, BGF Retail, &amp; OCI / Large→Mid: Hanmi Science, KCC, DB Hitek, &amp; KEPCO E&amp;C

The level of price impact/correlation in the last rebalancing was exceptionally high. This is reason enough for us to consider setting up a preemptive position for this rebalancing event.


KOSPI Size Index Series: September Rebalancing Preview

<ul>
<li>We believe BGF Retail and GS Retail are strong turnaround plays amid the end of the social distancing policies in Korea.</li>
<li>These CVS plays are well positioned to withstand higher inflation rates and higher product price increases among the various retail channels in Korea.</li>
<li>Valuation multiples of GS Retail have declined significantly in the past five years. Their valuations have become more attractive as compared to lofty levels 4-5 years ago. </li>
</ul>


We believe BGF Retail and GS Retail are strong turnaround plays amid the end of the social distancing policies in Korea.
These CVS plays are well positioned to withstand higher inflation rates and higher product price increases among the various retail channels in Korea.
Valuation multiples of GS Retail have declined significantly in the past five years. Their valuations have become more attractive as compared to lofty levels 4-5 years ago. 


BGF Retail & GS Retail: Korean CVS Plays Likely to Better Withstand Higher Inflation

South Korea

E-MART Inc. operates E-Mart discount stores. The Company retails food, clothing, household goods, electronics, and other items through several branch stores.

Dongsuh Companies Inc. imports, manufactures, processes, markets and distributes general food products such as vegetable cooking oils. The Company also produces packaging materials and ceramic products including food and oil containers. Dongsuh has a cooperative relationship with Kraft Foods Inc.

GS Retail Co., Ltd. operates a chain of retail stores. The Company provides beauty and skincare products, candles, gifts, perfumes, ornaments, bathroom accessories, and other products. GS Retail serves its customers in the Republic of South Korea.

Hyundai G.F. Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a office furniture distribution company. The Company produces built in furniture, upcycling waste materials bottles furniture, wood furniture, and other related products. Hyundai G.F. Holdings also offers food, information and technology, groceries sale, and food materials distribution services.

BGF Retail Co. Ltd. operates convenience store chains called CU in South Korea. The Company, through company owned stores or franchise, sells general groceries such as food and beverage.  The Company also offers ticketing, parcel pick-up, ATM machine and bill payment service.

CJ Freshway Corp. markets and provides various groceries to food service companies and restaurants.  The Company also caters to company's restaurants, schools, airports, and private restaurants and processes agricultural products.

Cosmax, Inc. is a cosmetics manufacturer. The Company develops and produces a variety of cosmetics for men and women, such as basic and special skin care, makeup, hair care, and other beauty products. Cosmax manufactures its products on original equipment manufacturing (OEM) basis.

LOTTE Corporation is a pure holding company of Lotte Group Korea. It was established in 2017. Lotte Group Korea develops various high quality products and services in the five main business areas: food production/sales, distribution, sightseeing service, heavy chemical/construction and finance/investment.

Lotte Confectionery Co., Ltd. operates as a snack food manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells chewing gum, candy, biscuits, chocolates, pies, snacks, and other products. Lotte Confectionery markets its products worldwide.

Dongwon Industries Co., Ltd. is a deep-sea fishing company.  The Company produces and distributes fish can goods and processed seafood products including tuna sashimi.

LIFE CORPORATION operates a supermarket chain mainly in Kansai and Kanto areas. The Company sells mainly groceries, and also clothing, and household utensils.

Shenzhen Agricultural Products Co., Ltd. operates chain supermarkets and wholesale markets for agricultural products.  The Company also provides agricultural products processing and other related services.

Shenzhen Agricultural Products Co, Ltd. (000061 CH)

AIN HOLDINGS INC. operates and franchises pharmacies in Japan.  The Company primarily sells medicines, external-use medicine, cosmetics, and food products. AIN Pharmaciez also conducts clinical tests for medical institutions.

Ingles Markets, Incorporated operates a supermarket chain in the southeastern United States.  The Company also owns and operates neighborhood shopping centers.

CREATE SD HOLDINGS Co Ltd operates a chain of drug stores based in Kanagawa. The Company sells medical supplies, cosmetics, foodstuff, baby products and daily goods. CREATE SD HOLDINGS also sells prescription medicine.

Puregold Price Club, Inc. operates wholesale and retail stores, including supermarkets.

Mitsubishi Shokuhin Co.,Ltd. is a wholesaler of processed food. The Company sells a varietyof groceries including canned products, dried food, frozen food, pet food, beverages, and liquors.

Metro AG operates retail stores and markets products over the Internet.  The Company operates cash and carry stores, supermarkets and hypermarkets, consumer electronics stores, department stores, theme stores, and online sales services.

North West Company, Inc. retails food, family apparel, housewares, appliances, outdoor products, and offers services such as quick-service prepared food, special ordering, money transfers and check cashing.  The Company operates in underserved rural communities in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific, and the Caribbean.

HelloFresh SE provides online food services. The Company offers a subscription service in which customers receive a weekly box of recipes and meal ideas. HelloFresh also provides ice packs, plastic packaging, meat packing, insulation materials, and other related products. HelloFresh serves customers worldwide.

BGF Retail Co., Ltd. operates convenience stores. The Company retails delicatessen, sweets, snacks, beverages, tobacco, and other related products. BGF Retail markets its products throughout South Korea.

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BGF retail (282330 KS)

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BGF Retail & GS Retail: Korean CVS Plays Likely to Better Withstand Higher Inflation

BGF Retail and GS Retail are strong turnaround plays amid the end of the social distancing policies in Korea. These CVS plays are well positioned...

Douglas Kim

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