IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The AGM voting shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a> will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.</li>
<li>The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.
The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.
The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 201m and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 201m and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 28th): Meituan, China Construction Bank

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto

<ul>
<li>The 27 April vote was adjourned as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> Board was notified by “<em>certain beneficial owners indicating that their latest voting instructions were not duly processed.</em>”</li>
<li>The meeting would not be adjourned if the YES vote was going to sail through. A delay helps the offeror as these owners will vote YES and deal fatigue sets in. </li>
<li>Risk-Reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This compares to the 13.5% upside from the offer. </li>
</ul>


The 27 April vote was adjourned as Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) Board was notified by “certain beneficial owners indicating that their latest voting instructions were not duly processed.”
The meeting would not be adjourned if the YES vote was going to sail through. A delay helps the offeror as these owners will vote YES and deal fatigue sets in. 
Risk-Reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This compares to the 13.5% upside from the offer. 


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Adjourned Scheme Meeting Points to a Close Vote

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated....

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 28th): Meituan, China Construction Bank

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st and highlight short interest changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Adjourned Scheme Meeting Points to a Close Vote

Risk-reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This...

Arun George

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