IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a> is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou has started pre-marketing for Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion. Kuaishou which was previously seeking a $50 billion valuation is now being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 billion, according to <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1070003/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese media reports</a>. Potential IPO investors seem to be more sanguine and according to these same reports are said to be a seeking a $60-70 billion valuation. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-initiation-dancing-to-its-own-tune" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45032" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune</a>, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-thrill-seekers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47104" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers</a>,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46787" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look </a>for the latest set of results. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that a $65 billion valuation is justifiable (the low-end of the rumoured syndicate range) but would be hesitant to participate at a higher valuation.</p></div>
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Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH) is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou has started pre-marketing for Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion. Kuaishou which was previously seeking a $50 billion valuation is now being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 billion, according to Chinese media reports. Potential IPO investors seem to be more sanguine and according to these same reports are said to be a seeking a $60-70 billion valuation. 
In Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. 
In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look for the latest set of results. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that a $65 billion valuation is justifiable (the low-end of the rumoured syndicate range) but would be hesitant to participate at a higher valuation.


Kuaishou IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Indian Railway Finance Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) aims to raise around US$630m via selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO.</p><p>IRFC is the dedicated financing arm of the Indian Railways for mobilizing funds from domestic as well as overseas capital markets. Its primary business is financing the acquisition of rolling stock assets and project assets of the Indian railways and lending to other entities under the Ministry of Railways.</p><p>IRFC’s AUM has grown by 25-32% over FY18-FY20, while disbursements have been growing at 34-43%. Although revenue growth has lagged AUM growth since at least FY18 as its net interest margin had been under pressure due to the rising cost of funds and fluctuation margin set by the Ministry of Railways. </p><p>We have covered the above and other points in our previous note: </p><ul><li dir="ltr"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indian-railway-finance-pre-ipo-low-risk-low-margin-business" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian Railway Finance Pre-IPO - Low risk, low margin business</a></p></li></ul><p>In this note, we'll talk about updates for the newly filed DRHP and run the deal through our ECM framework</p>

Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) aims to raise around US$630m via selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO.IRFC is the dedicated financing arm of the Indian Railways for mobilizing funds from domestic as well as overseas capital markets. Its primary business is financing the acquisition of rolling stock assets and project assets of the Indian railways and lending to other entities under the Ministry of Railways.IRFC’s AUM has grown by 25-32% over FY18-FY20, while disbursements have been growing at 34-43%. Although revenue growth has lagged AUM growth since at least FY18 as its net interest margin had been under pressure due to the rising cost of funds and fluctuation margin set by the Ministry of Railways. We have covered the above and other points in our previous note: Indian Railway Finance Pre-IPO - Low risk, low margin businessIn this note, we'll talk about updates for the newly filed DRHP and run the deal through our ECM framework

Indian Railway Finance IPO - Low Risk, Low Margin, Low Returns

<div><p>Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p></div><div><p>As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p></div><div><p>As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p></div><div><p>I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, I’ll cover the updates from its recently filed PHIP.</p></div>

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation
In this note, I’ll cover the updates from its recently filed PHIP.

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a> is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Users access the platform primarily through a family of mobile apps comprising Kuaishou Flagship, Kuaishou Express and Kuaishou Concept, which is collectively referred to as the Kuaishou App. Kuaishou has got approval for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-initiation-dancing-to-its-own-tune" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45032" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune</a>, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46787" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look</a>, we stated that the rumoured IPO valuation of $50 billion can be justified. The PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. </p></div>

Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH) is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Users access the platform primarily through a family of mobile apps comprising Kuaishou Flagship, Kuaishou Express and Kuaishou Concept, which is collectively referred to as the Kuaishou App. Kuaishou has got approval for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion, according to press reports. In Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look, we stated that the rumoured IPO valuation of $50 billion can be justified. The PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. 

RLX Technology Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rlx-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31113:1" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Inc (RLX US)</a> aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. </p></div><div><p>RLX only sells its e-vapor products in China. As of Sep 2020, it had over 5,000 branded partner stores and sold its products in over 100,000 other retail outlets, covering over 250 cities in China.</p></div><div><p>Even though the company only started operations in 2018, it was already recording sales of around US$330m by 9M20. Margins too have been on an uptrend and operating cash flows have been robust. Moreover, the founding team and investor backing appear strong.</p></div><div><p>However, sales have mostly grown owing to rapid expansion of its distribution network. Furthermore, the brand also appears to have overseas operations but there has been no mention of that in the company’s filings, leaving one to wonder where these operations are housed and who exactly owns them.</p></div><div><p>In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on updates in the new filing.</p></div><div><p><strong>Links to our previous notes:</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-low-penetration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46797" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-limited-track-record-and-missing-international-ops" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46836" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-rlx-store-visits-to-relx-and-its-competitors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div>

RLX Technology Inc (RLX US) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. RLX only sells its e-vapor products in China. As of Sep 2020, it had over 5,000 branded partner stores and sold its products in over 100,000 other retail outlets, covering over 250 cities in China.Even though the company only started operations in 2018, it was already recording sales of around US$330m by 9M20. Margins too have been on an uptrend and operating cash flows have been robust. Moreover, the founding team and investor backing appear strong.However, sales have mostly grown owing to rapid expansion of its distribution network. Furthermore, the brand also appears to have overseas operations but there has been no mention of that in the company’s filings, leaving one to wonder where these operations are housed and who exactly owns them.In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on updates in the new filing.Links to our previous notes:

RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration 
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops
RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation


RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Kuaishou IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

Kuaishou is being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 bn, according to Chinese media reports. We think that a $65 bn valuation is justifiable but...

Arun George

Indian Railway Finance IPO - Low Risk, Low Margin, Low Returns

Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) aims to raise around US$630m via its Indian IPO. IRFC is the dedicated financing arm of the Indian...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers

Kuaishou has got approval for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion, according to press reports. The PHIP which discloses new data points...

Arun George

RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months

RLX Technology (RLX US) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of...

Sumeet Singh

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