Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/Freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY06/2022 results on Friday. Revenue grew 35.7% YoY to JPY3.65bn (vs consensus JPY3.63bn) driven by strong growth in paying users.</li>
<li>Operating losses declined to 18.5% of revenues during the quarter from 24.0% in the same period a year ago.</li>
<li>The company’s shares moved up by about 9% at the end of Friday’s close following its earnings announcement.</li>
</ul>



freee (4478 JP)  reported 3QFY06/2022 results on Friday. Revenue grew 35.7% YoY to JPY3.65bn (vs consensus JPY3.63bn) driven by strong growth in paying users.
Operating losses declined to 18.5% of revenues during the quarter from 24.0% in the same period a year ago.
The company’s shares moved up by about 9% at the end of Friday’s close following its earnings announcement.


Freee: Strong User Growth and Improvement in Profitability; Shares Are a Lot Cheaper

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> posted solid Q1 financial results as revenue growth rebounded and EBITDA losses were within management's forecast</li>
<li>But revenue guidance for Q2 was weaker than expected and represents the lowest YoY growth to date which has raised questions on the effectiveness of marketing spend</li>
<li>Full year guidance remains intact and the company expects that underlying growth in recurring revenue to remain robust which is positive for the long term thesis</li>
</ul>



Money Forward (3994 JP) posted solid Q1 financial results as revenue growth rebounded and EBITDA losses were within management's forecast
But revenue guidance for Q2 was weaker than expected and represents the lowest YoY growth to date which has raised questions on the effectiveness of marketing spend
Full year guidance remains intact and the company expects that underlying growth in recurring revenue to remain robust which is positive for the long term thesis


Money Forward Q1 22 Results: Mixed Quarter but Underlying KPIs Solid

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional Inc (4194 JP)</a> had raised US$609m in its Japan IPO in April 2021, where it had been priced at the top end after books were reportedly multiple times covered.</li>
<li>Visional is a HR technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. </li>
<li>The Pre-IPO shareholder, YJ2 Investment, will be released from its lockup on 16th Apr 2022, 360 days post-listing.</li>
</ul>



Visional Inc (4194 JP) had raised US$609m in its Japan IPO in April 2021, where it had been priced at the top end after books were reportedly multiple times covered.
Visional is a HR technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. 
The Pre-IPO shareholder, YJ2 Investment, will be released from its lockup on 16th Apr 2022, 360 days post-listing.


Visional IPO Lock-Up - Shares Have Performed Well, a Small Lock-Up Expiry to Look At

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> reported 1QFY11/2022 results yesterday. 1Q revenue grew 37.0% YoY to JPY4.8bn and beat consensus estimates by 4.4%.</li>
<li>Operating losses for the quarter was JPY1.6bn and accounted for around 34.7% of revenues during the period.</li>
<li>MF’s SAAS model has started taking-off, we would highlight that string user growth comes at the cost of heavy advertising and subsidies.</li>
</ul>



Money Forward (3994 JP) reported 1QFY11/2022 results yesterday. 1Q revenue grew 37.0% YoY to JPY4.8bn and beat consensus estimates by 4.4%.
Operating losses for the quarter was JPY1.6bn and accounted for around 34.7% of revenues during the period.
MF’s SAAS model has started taking-off, we would highlight that string user growth comes at the cost of heavy advertising and subsidies.


Money Forward: SAAS Model Begins to Take-Off but Interpret 1Q Results with Caution

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Q1 results are better than expected, achieving record-high quarterly growth in SaaS revenue</li>
<li>Growth is driven by Corporate Customer ARR, which rose by 47% YoY</li>
<li>For growth investors, Money Forward is out top pick in Japan</li>
</ul>


Q1 results are better than expected, achieving record-high quarterly growth in SaaS revenue
Growth is driven by Corporate Customer ARR, which rose by 47% YoY
For growth investors, Money Forward is out top pick in Japan


Money Forward (3994) - Surprisingly Strong SaaS Sales

Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

Freee: Strong User Growth and Improvement in Profitability; Shares Are a Lot Cheaper

3Q revenue grew 35.7% YoY driven by strong growth in paying users. freee added more than 57k paying users during the quarter. Freee has a clear...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward Q1 22 Results: Mixed Quarter but Underlying KPIs Solid

Q1 results were mixed as a solid financial report was offset by guidance for slower Q2 sales growth and higher ad spend. Underlying KPIs are...

Kirk Boodry

Visional IPO Lock-Up - Shares Have Performed Well, a Small Lock-Up Expiry to Look At

Visional Inc (4194 JP) had raised US$609m in its Japan IPO in April 2021, and the Pre-IPO shareholder, YJ2 Investment, will be released from its...

Clarence Chu

Money Forward: SAAS Model Begins to Take-Off but Interpret 1Q Results with Caution

Despite beating consensus, we think MF’s 1Q results should be interpreted with caution. Though MF’s SAAS business model has started seeing...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994) - Surprisingly Strong SaaS Sales

Money Forward has one of the largest SaaS/Fintech platforms in Japan and is a key beneficiary of corporate digital transformation in Japan.

Mark Chadwick

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