Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The precious metals markets held flat in August, following the solid performance in July; mining equities fell modestly.</li>
<li>Sentiment Update Commodity prices remained relatively flat through August, following a strong month in July.</li>
<li>This could also contribute to an increase in investment flows into the mining and metals equities.</li>
</ul>


The precious metals markets held flat in August, following the solid performance in July; mining equities fell modestly.
Sentiment Update Commodity prices remained relatively flat through August, following a strong month in July.
This could also contribute to an increase in investment flows into the mining and metals equities.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a> is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. </li>
<li>Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. 
Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


Amman Mineral International IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amman-mineral-internasional-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:103755" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.
We previously discussed the IPO in Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.


Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>’s A$28.25 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. </li>
<li>Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.</li>
<li>This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)’s A$28.25 offer for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. 
Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.
This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Canada

Alamos Gold Inc. is an intermediate gold producer. The Company acquires, explores and produces gold from mines located in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

Yamana Gold Inc. is an intermediate gold producer with production, development stage, and exploration properties throughout Brazil.  The Company also holds gold exploration properties in Argentina.

Hudbay Minerals Inc. operates as a mining company. The Company mines and produces zinc, copper, gold, and silver. Hudbay Minerals offers its services across the Americas .

B2Gold Corporation is a gold exploration and production company. The Company is a Vancouver based gold producer with mines in Nicaragua and a portfolio of development and exploration assets in Nicaragua, Colombia and Uruguay.

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd operates as a precious metal royalty and stream company. The Company holds royalties and streams in base metals, gold, and silver mines. Osisko Gold Royalties serves customers in Canada.

Lundin Gold Inc. is a Canadian mining company. The Company owns and operates gold projects located in southeast Ecuador.

IAMGOLD Corporation is a mid-tier gold mining company. The Company is focused in West Africa, the Guiana Shield of South America and in Quebec where it has a pipeline of development and exploration projects.

First Majestic Silver Corp. is a silver producing mining company.  The Company's presently owns and operates producing silver mines in Mexico; the La Parrilla Silver Mine, the San Martin Silver Mine, the La Encantada Silver Mine, the La Guitarra Silver Mine, and Del Toro Silver Mine.

Sandstorm Gold Ltd. acquires gold purchase agreements with companies that have advanced stage development projects or operating mines.  The Company makes an upfront cash payment to its partners and receives the right to purchase a percentage of the gold produced, for the life of the mine, at a fixed price per ounce.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and markets aluminum products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, aluminum rolls, and aluminum alloys.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates coal businesses. The Company mines, processes, and distributes coal, cokes, coal chemical products, and other products. Huaibei Mining Holdings also produces methanol, crude benzene, ammonium sulfate, and other products.

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

Mining Monthly: August Edition

The precious metals markets held flat in August, following the solid performance in July; mining equities fell modestly.

Atrium Research

Amman Mineral International IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. In this note, we undertake a quick peer...

Ethan Aw

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Amman has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Despite perky copper prices, this is a done deal with no hint of a competing bid. At the last close price and for the 2 May payment, the annualised...

Arun George

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