Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>What sets HDFC Bank apart from peers is stability, strength in profit, ROA, NPLs, NIM</li>
<li>Peers see volatile, high NPL ratios, where HDFC Bank may see NPLs at less than 1% soon</li>
<li>Amalgamation HDFC into HDFC Bank can see more interest, supported by fundamentals </li>
</ul>


What sets HDFC Bank apart from peers is stability, strength in profit, ROA, NPLs, NIM
Peers see volatile, high NPL ratios, where HDFC Bank may see NPLs at less than 1% soon
Amalgamation HDFC into HDFC Bank can see more interest, supported by fundamentals 


HDFC Bank - Stability, Strength Against India Peer Banks and Non-Banks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>An interview with Deepak Parekh set a bunch of stocks on fire. Then came the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> exchange announcement that said the dates were still tentative.</li>
<li>Indications are that the merger could be effective 1 July and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>'s last trading day would be 13 July.</li>
<li>The merger will have an impact on both HDFC stocks and on other stocks that could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NIFTYJR INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


An interview with Deepak Parekh set a bunch of stocks on fire. Then came the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) exchange announcement that said the dates were still tentative.
Indications are that the merger could be effective 1 July and HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)'s last trading day would be 13 July.
The merger will have an impact on both HDFC stocks and on other stocks that could be added to the NIFTY Index, NIFTYJR INDEX and SENSEX Index.


HDFC/​​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shriram Finance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.</li>
<li>The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.
The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aberdeen-asset-management-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21803:1" rel="noopener">Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN)</a> plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We have covered one of the past deals in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hdfc-amc-placement-ofs-forced-to-sell-but-it-s-not-the-best-of-times-to-be-selling-or-buying" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40431" rel="noopener">HDFC AMC Placement/OFS - Forced to Sell, but It's Not the Best of Times to Be Selling or Buying</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN) plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN). 
We have covered one of the past deals in HDFC AMC Placement/OFS - Forced to Sell, but It's Not the Best of Times to Be Selling or Buying.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


HDFC AMC Placement - It's a Cleanup but the Momentum Is Very Weak

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

HDFC Bank - Stability, Strength Against India Peer Banks and Non-Banks

Stability and strength, sets HDFC Bank apart from its peers, as does it high ranking in system for loans outstanding. HDFC Finance amalgamation can...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

The HDFC/HDFCB merger could complete in 2-3 weeks. This will set off changes to a bunch of indices and impact a bunch of stocks. We look at the...

Brian Freitas

Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance. The deal is very well flagged,...

Sumeet Singh

HDFC AMC Placement - It's a Cleanup but the Momentum Is Very Weak

Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN) plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN).

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HDFC Bank - Stability, Strength Against India Peer Banks and Non-Banks

Stability and strength, sets HDFC Bank apart from its peers, as does it high ranking in system for loans outstanding. HDFC Finance amalgamation can...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC/​​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

The HDFC/HDFCB merger could complete in 2-3 weeks. This will set off changes to a bunch of indices and impact a bunch of stocks. We look at the...

Brian Freitas

Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance. The deal is very well flagged,...

Sumeet Singh

HDFC AMC Placement - It's a Cleanup but the Momentum Is Very Weak

Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN) plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN).

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?