Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>This is a pre-IPO ESG assessment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>, China's leading ride-hailing platform. DiDi is set to finalise its US$4 billion IPO at an implied valuation of US$65 billion – the largest IPO of a Chinese issuer on a U.S. exchange since Alibaba's (BABA US) US$25 billion IPO in 2014.</p><p>Impressive, except for one minor nuance. That US$65 billion is less than DiDi's earlier expectations of US$100 million, despite strong interest. Economic factors (e.g., growth rates, profitability) had a lot to do with the lower valuation. Regulatory risk and uncertainty probably factored in as well.</p><p>Therein lies the quandary of this ESG analysis. Regulatory risk and uncertainty.</p><p>DiDi is committed to corporate social responsibility, and its ESG performance is strong (though not perfect) in critical areas under its control. DiDi is reducing emissions, improving safety, rooting out corruption, and is lightyears ahead of its peers on gender equality and empowerment of women.</p><p>DiDi is doing all the right things, where it has some semblance of direct control.</p><p>But then, there's that quandary. DiDi's ESG achievements are overshadowed by regulatory risks and uncertainty, all beyond DiDi's control. Nearly concerning enough to justify a bearish imperative but the "control" issue – proactive ESG positives, versus passive ESG negatives – ultimately won out.</p>

This is a pre-IPO ESG assessment of DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), China's leading ride-hailing platform. DiDi is set to finalise its US$4 billion IPO at an implied valuation of US$65 billion – the largest IPO of a Chinese issuer on a U.S. exchange since Alibaba's (BABA US) US$25 billion IPO in 2014.Impressive, except for one minor nuance. That US$65 billion is less than DiDi's earlier expectations of US$100 million, despite strong interest. Economic factors (e.g., growth rates, profitability) had a lot to do with the lower valuation. Regulatory risk and uncertainty probably factored in as well.Therein lies the quandary of this ESG analysis. Regulatory risk and uncertainty.DiDi is committed to corporate social responsibility, and its ESG performance is strong (though not perfect) in critical areas under its control. DiDi is reducing emissions, improving safety, rooting out corruption, and is lightyears ahead of its peers on gender equality and empowerment of women.DiDi is doing all the right things, where it has some semblance of direct control.But then, there's that quandary. DiDi's ESG achievements are overshadowed by regulatory risks and uncertainty, all beyond DiDi's control. Nearly concerning enough to justify a bearish imperative but the "control" issue – proactive ESG positives, versus passive ESG negatives – ultimately won out.

Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Our base case valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> is implied market cap of $99 billion or target price of $20.4 per share. This represents a 46% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $14 per share. Given the excellent upside, we continue to maintain a positive view of Didi Chuxing. </strong></p>
<p>At the high end of the IPO price range of <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3138683/chinese-ride-hailing-giant-didi-chuxing-plans-raise-us4-billion-us-ipo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$14 per share,</a> the company would be valued at $67 billion, which is 8% higher than its last private market fundraising valuation of $62 billion in 2019.</p>
<p>The fact that Didi Chuxing is getting priced at much lower levels than what the company was contemplating in early 2021 also suggests increasing investors' concerns about the Chinese government's potential anti-trust related crackdown combined with weaker IPO environment globally in 2021 versus 2020. </p>
</div>


Our base case valuation of DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) is implied market cap of $99 billion or target price of $20.4 per share. This represents a 46% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $14 per share. Given the excellent upside, we continue to maintain a positive view of Didi Chuxing. 
At the high end of the IPO price range of $14 per share, the company would be valued at $67 billion, which is 8% higher than its last private market fundraising valuation of $62 billion in 2019.
The fact that Didi Chuxing is getting priced at much lower levels than what the company was contemplating in early 2021 also suggests increasing investors' concerns about the Chinese government's potential anti-trust related crackdown combined with weaker IPO environment globally in 2021 versus 2020. 


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> , the Chinese mobility technology platform has announced the indicative price range for its US IPO. Didi plans to issue 288m ADSs at an indicative price range of US$13-14 per ADS. Each ordinary share of Didi represents four ADSs, and at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range of US$13.5 per ADS, the company will raise US$3.8bn at a market capitalisation of US$64.5bn (excluding over-allotment) and a post-money enterprise value of US$53.4bn.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 183.0pt;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Didi IPO Details</strong></p></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>No. of ADS Issued (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">288</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>IPO Price per ADS (US$)</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">13-14</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>No. of ADS per Share</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">4</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>Offer as a % of Outstanding Shares</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">6.01%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>Total Shares Outstanding (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">               1,199</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>Net Proceeds (US$m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">               3,795</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>Market Capitalisation (US$m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">64,726</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 133.0pt;"><p>Enterprise Value (US$m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">            53,377</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p><em>Source: Company disclosures, LSR (net proceeds, market cap and EV are at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range)</em></p><p>Some of Didi’s existing and new investors have expressed their interest in subscribing for an aggregate of US$1.25bn worth of ADSs offered at the IPO, representing approx. 32.2% of the gross IPO proceeds at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range. These investors include Morgan Stanley Investment Management (US$750m) and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Temasek Holdings (US$500m).</p><p>Didi plans to use approx. 30% of the net IPO proceeds on enhancing its technological capabilities including shared mobility, EVs and autonomous technologies, another 30% of the proceeds on expanding into selected international markets (outside of China), approx. 20% on launching new products and expand its existing offerings and the remainder will be spent on working capital and general corporate purposes.</p>

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) , the Chinese mobility technology platform has announced the indicative price range for its US IPO. Didi plans to issue 288m ADSs at an indicative price range of US$13-14 per ADS. Each ordinary share of Didi represents four ADSs, and at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range of US$13.5 per ADS, the company will raise US$3.8bn at a market capitalisation of US$64.5bn (excluding over-allotment) and a post-money enterprise value of US$53.4bn.
Didi IPO Details

No. of ADS Issued (m)
288


IPO Price per ADS (US$)
13-14


No. of ADS per Share
4


Offer as a % of Outstanding Shares
6.01%


Total Shares Outstanding (m)
               1,199


Net Proceeds (US$m)
               3,795


Market Capitalisation (US$m)
64,726


Enterprise Value (US$m)
            53,377

Source: Company disclosures, LSR (net proceeds, market cap and EV are at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range)Some of Didi’s existing and new investors have expressed their interest in subscribing for an aggregate of US$1.25bn worth of ADSs offered at the IPO, representing approx. 32.2% of the gross IPO proceeds at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range. These investors include Morgan Stanley Investment Management (US$750m) and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Temasek Holdings (US$500m).Didi plans to use approx. 30% of the net IPO proceeds on enhancing its technological capabilities including shared mobility, EVs and autonomous technologies, another 30% of the proceeds on expanding into selected international markets (outside of China), approx. 20% on launching new products and expand its existing offerings and the remainder will be spent on working capital and general corporate purposes.

Didi IPO: Forecasts, Peer Comparison and Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. The <em>DiDi Chuxing</em> app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> (12.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> (6.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>. </div><div></div><div><p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-14.00 per ADS, Didi will have a fully diluted market cap of $67.7 billion, materially below the rumoured top-end valuation of $100 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $3,795.4 million, below the rumoured $10 billion raise target. Didi has received $1,250 million indications of interest (32.2% of the ADSs being offered) from Morgan Stanley Investment Management ($750 million) and Temasek ($500 million). </p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-xiaoju-kuaizhi-initiation-in-for-a-bumpy-ride" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53014" rel="noopener">Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?</a>, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xiaoju-kuaizhi-didi-chuxing-ipo-growth-vs-margin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53232" rel="noopener">Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin</a>, we examined the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lyft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1" rel="noopener">Lyft Inc (LYFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>. Our analysis showed that Didi offered a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. We concluded that in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.</p>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our SoTP valuation is $13.96 per ADS, which is a 3.4% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range of $13-14 per ADS. Consequently, we think that Didi is fairly valued at the IPO price range.   </p></div></div></div>


DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. The DiDi Chuxing app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), Uber (UBER US) (12.8%), Tencent (700 HK) (6.8%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) and Toyota Motor (7203 JP). At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $13.00-14.00 per ADS, Didi will have a fully diluted market cap of $67.7 billion, materially below the rumoured top-end valuation of $100 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $3,795.4 million, below the rumoured $10 billion raise target. Didi has received $1,250 million indications of interest (32.2% of the ADSs being offered) from Morgan Stanley Investment Management ($750 million) and Temasek ($500 million). 
In Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. 
In Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin, we examined the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, Lyft Inc (LYFT US) and Grab (0967655D SP). Our analysis showed that Didi offered a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. We concluded that in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.
Our SoTP valuation is $13.96 per ADS, which is a 3.4% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range of $13-14 per ADS. Consequently, we think that Didi is fairly valued at the IPO price range.   

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>, the world’s largest mobility technology platform, aims to raise up to US$4bn in its US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, along with other investors.</p></div><div><p>It is present in over 4,000 cities, counties and towns across 15 countries. As of twelve months ending (LTM) 1Q21, it had 493m annual active users and 15m drivers, who participated in 41m average daily transactions. It generated a gross transaction value of RMB341bn over LTM1Q21.  </p></div><div><p>We provided the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-has-a-principal-agent-problem-rumoured-target-valuation-is-a-stretch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-pre-ipo-competitive-in-car-hailing-uncompetitive-in-others-generally-valuable" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-bull-case-index-inclusion-uber-exit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Bull Case, Index Inclusion, Uber Exit</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</p></div>

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, aims to raise up to US$4bn in its US listing. It is backed by Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Tencent (700 HK), along with other investors.It is present in over 4,000 cities, counties and towns across 15 countries. As of twelve months ending (LTM) 1Q21, it had 493m annual active users and 15m drivers, who participated in 41m average daily transactions. It generated a gross transaction value of RMB341bn over LTM1Q21.  We provided the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes:

DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet.
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch
DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Valuation
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Bull Case, Index Inclusion, Uber Exit
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

DiDi Chuxing IPO - At Fair Value, with Partial Lock-Up and Index Inclusion Pulling It Either Way

United States

Lyft, Inc. provides online ridesharing services. The Company offers ride booking, payment processing, and car transportation services. Lyft serves customers in the United States.

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Lyft (LYFT US)

Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty

DiDi boasts positive ESG achievements in areas under its control, but there's a big ESG issue beyond its control – regulatory risk. But, proactive...

Kyle Rudden

Didi Chuxing IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of DiDi Chuxing is implied market cap of $99 billion or target price of $20.4 per share. This represents a 46% upside to...

Douglas Kim

Didi IPO: Forecasts, Peer Comparison and Valuation

Didi’s IPO is fairly valued at the indicative IPO price range compared to its peers Uber, Lyft and Grab who are trading at higher EV/Revenue...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

DiDi Global IPO: Valuation Insights

Our SoTP valuation is $13.96 per ADS, which is a 3.4% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range of $13-14 per ADS. Consequently, we think that...

Arun George

DiDi Chuxing IPO - At Fair Value, with Partial Lock-Up and Index Inclusion Pulling It Either Way

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, aims to raise up to US$4bn in its US listing. It is backed by Softbank...

Sumeet Singh

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