Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi reported C3Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit (2%), 7% and in-line vs. our est., and in-line, 4%, and 13%, vs. consensus respectively.</li>
<li>Xiaomi’s recent run could be short lived, as (1) Huawei will soon launch mid-range 5G handsets, (2) the Mi 14 will soon face new high-end Android competition;</li>
<li>And (3) its underinvested EV project could disappoint. We maintain our SELL rating and HK$ 12.6 TP, implying 28x CY24 P/E.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi reported C3Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit (2%), 7% and in-line vs. our est., and in-line, 4%, and 13%, vs. consensus respectively.
Xiaomi’s recent run could be short lived, as (1) Huawei will soon launch mid-range 5G handsets, (2) the Mi 14 will soon face new high-end Android competition;
And (3) its underinvested EV project could disappoint. We maintain our SELL rating and HK$ 12.6 TP, implying 28x CY24 P/E.


[Xiaomi Inc.(1810HK,SELL,TP HK$12.6) Earnings Review]: Mi14 Success Does Not Alter Overall Headwinds

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> is a member of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a>, among others.</li>
<li>Capping of stocks at 8% of the index weight will lead to selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> at the close on 1 December, mainly from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> trackers.</li>
<li>Relative underperformance vs the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH Index</a> from now to Tuesday will require passive to sell less stock, while outperformance will lead to increased passive selling. That opens up trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is a member of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng TECH Index, among others.
Capping of stocks at 8% of the index weight will lead to selling in Xiaomi (1810 HK) at the close on 1 December, mainly from Hang Seng TECH Index trackers.
Relative underperformance vs the HSTECH Index from now to Tuesday will require passive to sell less stock, while outperformance will lead to increased passive selling. That opens up trading opportunities.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Outperformance Leads to Passive Selling & Opens Up Trading Opportunities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Xiaomi’s 3Q23 adj. net income of RMB 5.99bn (+183% YoY) is ahead of our estimate and consensus, mainly driven by strong GPM beat on smartphone/AIoT, resilient smartphone and recovery in advertising/overseas internet businesses.</li><li>Looking ahead, we believe strong earnings momentum will continue into 4Q23E and smartphone business will be boosted by strong Xiaomi 14 model shipment and Double 11 festival sales.</li><li>We estimate 4Q revenue will deliver +17% YoY growth and adj. net profit will climb 189% YoY to RMB 4.23bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi’s 3Q23 adj. net income of RMB 5.99bn (+183% YoY) is ahead of our estimate and consensus, mainly driven by strong GPM beat on smartphone/AIoT, resilient smartphone and recovery in advertising/overseas internet businesses.Looking ahead, we believe strong earnings momentum will continue into 4Q23E and smartphone business will be boosted by strong Xiaomi 14 model shipment and Double 11 festival sales.We estimate 4Q revenue will deliver +17% YoY growth and adj. net profit will climb 189% YoY to RMB 4.23bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 3Q23 Beat on GPM and Resilient Smartphone

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-3121'>Lippo Karawaci</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-315'>Softbank Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-24409'>Xiaomi Corp</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Lippo KarawaciSoftbank GroupXiaomi Corp

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group, Xiaomi Corp

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Dec 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 17 November after the close.</li>
<li>There were no ADDs to or DELETEs from the index, in something of a surprise. </li>
<li>The "big flow" on HS TECH is the downweight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> due to sharp capping after significant outperformance since the August review.</li>
</ul>


The Dec 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 17 November after the close.
There were no ADDs to or DELETEs from the index, in something of a surprise. 
The "big flow" on HS TECH is the downweight on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) due to sharp capping after significant outperformance since the August review.


Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)

[Xiaomi Inc.(1810HK,SELL,TP HK$12.6) Earnings Review]: Mi14 Success Does Not Alter Overall Headwinds

Xiaomi's financial results were in line with expectations, but its success may be temporary due to upcoming competition from Huawei and potential...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Outperformance Leads to Passive Selling & Opens Up Trading Opportunities

There will be passive selling in Xiaomi from HSTECH trackers at the close on 1 Dec. Relative underperformance till Tuesday will lead to less...

Brian Freitas

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 3Q23 Beat on GPM and Resilient Smartphone

Looking ahead, we believe strong earnings momentum will continue into 4Q23E and smartphone business will be boosted by strong Xiaomi 14 model...

CMB International

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group, Xiaomi Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

Hang Seng Index team announced the December 2023 review for the Hang Seng Tech index on 17 Nov after the close. No name changes. But several...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Xiaomi Inc.(1810HK,SELL,TP HK$12.6) Earnings Review]: Mi14 Success Does Not Alter Overall Headwinds

​Xiaomi's financial results were in line with expectations, but its success may be temporary due to upcoming competition from Huawei and potential...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Outperformance Leads to Passive Selling & Opens Up Trading Opportunities

There will be passive selling in Xiaomi from HSTECH trackers at the close on 1 Dec. Relative underperformance till Tuesday will lead to less...

Brian Freitas

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 3Q23 Beat on GPM and Resilient Smartphone

Looking ahead, we believe strong earnings momentum will continue into 4Q23E and smartphone business will be boosted by strong Xiaomi 14 model...

CMB International

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Karawaci, Softbank Group, Xiaomi Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

Hang Seng Index team announced the December 2023 review for the Hang Seng Tech index on 17 Nov after the close. No name changes. But several...

Travis Lundy

Xiaomi's financial results were in line with expectations, but its success may be temporary due to upcoming competition from Huawei and potential...