Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>MNSO US: Yonghui Supermarket's 3Q24 Revenue Falls Short of Expectations by 15%(-)</li>
<li>LI US/ NIO US : Huawei Harmony added 11,000 new orders last week, mainly due to adjustments to service expectations (///)</li>
<li>1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: In the 43rd week of electric vehicles, BYD, Xiaomi, Leap and Xpeng lead the way,but LI and NIo have reached their peaks. (/////////)</li>
</ul>


MNSO US: Yonghui Supermarket's 3Q24 Revenue Falls Short of Expectations by 15%(-)
LI US/ NIO US : Huawei Harmony added 11,000 new orders last week, mainly due to adjustments to service expectations (///)
1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: In the 43rd week of electric vehicles, BYD, Xiaomi, Leap and Xpeng lead the way,but LI and NIo have reached their peaks. (/////////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

<ul>
<li>NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly need to ramp up its promotion to stir up demand in C4Q24;</li>
<li>Trade-In has greatly stimulated EV demand and is possible to extend into 2025. But Huawei-affiliated PHEV makers are gaining share while Tesla is readying another round of innovation-led cost reduction;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICK's of the sector are BYD and Xiaomi. BYD benefits from PHEV and Xiaomi can still benefit from PHEV.</li>
</ul>


NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly need to ramp up its promotion to stir up demand in C4Q24;
Trade-In has greatly stimulated EV demand and is possible to extend into 2025. But Huawei-affiliated PHEV makers are gaining share while Tesla is readying another round of innovation-led cost reduction;
Our TOP PICK's of the sector are BYD and Xiaomi. BYD benefits from PHEV and Xiaomi can still benefit from PHEV.


Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We identify key Taiwan-based Apple suppliers that have underperformed recently, and highlight which suppliers' revenue growth will outpace Apple in 2025E.</li>
<li>Rise of India -- Latest Apple data shows massive iPhone production growth in the country.</li>
<li>Apple's next-generation M5 chip will continue using TSMC's 3nm node, launching 2H25E; Supports that TSMC's 3nm process is expected to maintain strong demand even with the arrival of 2nm.</li>
</ul>


We identify key Taiwan-based Apple suppliers that have underperformed recently, and highlight which suppliers' revenue growth will outpace Apple in 2025E.
Rise of India -- Latest Apple data shows massive iPhone production growth in the country.
Apple's next-generation M5 chip will continue using TSMC's 3nm node, launching 2H25E; Supports that TSMC's 3nm process is expected to maintain strong demand even with the arrival of 2nm.


Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Laggards to Outgrow Apple in 2025E; India's IPhone Surge; New IMacs W/AI

<ul>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)</li>
<li>ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)</li>
<li>2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)</li>
</ul>


ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)
ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)
2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>Despite wide-spread social media expectations of China's electronics industry benefiting from Middle East supply chain disruptions following explosive incidents, September trade data suggested otherwise;</li>
<li>Middle East exports declined 2.1% yoy, underperforming other regions, while electronics were worse, declining 7.0% yoy. Communication device exports to Iran, Palestine and Lebanon were among the worst performing categories;</li>
<li>This suggests terrorist related trade was a negligible portion. As customs data are two-way verifiable, we believe we can safely conclude China doesn't benefit from the war in Mid East.</li>
</ul>


Despite wide-spread social media expectations of China's electronics industry benefiting from Middle East supply chain disruptions following explosive incidents, September trade data suggested otherwise;
Middle East exports declined 2.1% yoy, underperforming other regions, while electronics were worse, declining 7.0% yoy. Communication device exports to Iran, Palestine and Lebanon were among the worst performing categories;
This suggests terrorist related trade was a negligible portion. As customs data are two-way verifiable, we believe we can safely conclude China doesn't benefit from the war in Mid East.


Did China Exports Really Benefit from the Israel/Lebanon Pager Attack?

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly ramping up its promotion to stir up demand in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Laggards to Outgrow Apple in 2025E; India's IPhone Surge; New IMacs W/AI

Underperforming suppliers expect revenue growth surpassing Apple in 2025E; India sees massive iPhone production growth; Apple's M5 chip...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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[Blue Lotus Daily]:MNSO US/1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/ATAT US/Macro Update

​Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Not All EV Makers Are Reaping the Rewards of Macro Stimulus

NIO and XPEV intensified promotions during C3Q24 while LI moderated them. But we see LI possibly ramping up its promotion to stir up demand in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Laggards to Outgrow Apple in 2025E; India's IPhone Surge; New IMacs W/AI

​Underperforming suppliers expect revenue growth surpassing Apple in 2025E; India sees massive iPhone production growth; Apple's M5 chip...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

​ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Did China Exports Really Benefit from the Israel/Lebanon Pager Attack?

Despite expectations, China's Middle East exports have yet to see benefit from the pager attacks. On the contrary, electronics and communication...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Yonghui Supermarket's revenue falls short by 15%, Huawei Harmony gains 11,000 new orders, BYD and Xiaomi lead in electric vehicles.

Underperforming suppliers expect revenue growth surpassing Apple in 2025E; India sees massive iPhone production growth; Apple's M5 chip...

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.