Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Following last week's announcement of a demerger/spinoff, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> re-evaluation remains unresolved as its underperformance against its listed holdings continues, leading to a decade-low implied stub value - net of all key listed holdings.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/176/021/original/image_95567518231606891715234.png?1606891715" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="176021"></figure>
The creation of this new holding company as a means to unlocking value via improved efficiencies and affiliate listings, has largely been overshadowed by the EV battery craze, with 33.3%-held  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> up 165% YTD.
More below the fold.

Following last week's announcement of a demerger/spinoff, LG Corp (003550 KS) re-evaluation remains unresolved as its underperformance against its listed holdings continues, leading to a decade-low implied stub value - net of all key listed holdings.

The creation of this new holding company as a means to unlocking value via improved efficiencies and affiliate listings, has largely been overshadowed by the EV battery craze, with 33.3%-held  LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) up 165% YTD.
More below the fold.

2021 High Conviction: LG Corp's Decade-Low Stub

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.The list is headed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12310:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)</a> .Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn

Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.The list is headed by Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) and Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) .Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn

China's Next Generation:  Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> recently announced the launch of its battery subscription program, now providing a complete system of charging solutions for EVs. The company has developed its business model as planned during the time of its IPO. In this insight, we look at the company’s operations, specifically its new business venture: battery as a service (BaaS), which it will jointly operate with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a>. We will follow up with an insight that will then take a deep dive into financials to see if these operations reflect as expected on the financial performance.

NIO Inc (NIO US) recently announced the launch of its battery subscription program, now providing a complete system of charging solutions for EVs. The company has developed its business model as planned during the time of its IPO. In this insight, we look at the company’s operations, specifically its new business venture: battery as a service (BaaS), which it will jointly operate with CATL (A) (300750 CH). We will follow up with an insight that will then take a deep dive into financials to see if these operations reflect as expected on the financial performance.

A Look at Nio’s Operations: BaaS Is the Recent Addition

In September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> announced that it would split its Battery business (around 42% of total revenue) into a separate business. The plan was approved by a majority of shareholders on October 30th. By December 1st, the new battery business, tentatively named “LG Energy Solutions” will be formed.The second-largest shareholder - National Pension Service (NPS), with around a 10% stake, was against the split in business, citing a loss in shareholder value as a concern. Following the news, LG Chem’s share price dropped by about 6% during the day, however, the share price has recovered since then and has increased by 17.8% compared to the close on the 30th of October. We agree that the possible dilution in equity value should concern current shareholders. However, for the battery business as a whole, we feel that this is advantageous. The battery business will now receive the focus and attention it deserves, and given the current EV momentum, this could be the best strategy LG Chem could adopt to grow its battery business. During the first eight months of 2020, LG Chem also led the battery market, beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a>, which held the leading position until 2019. We believe that this a good time to split the battery business and that this should allow the new business to grow strongly and closely compete with pure EV battery leader CATL.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/199/original/image_70601135821604899855622.png?1604899857" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170199"></figure>We go through the details below.

In September, LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) announced that it would split its Battery business (around 42% of total revenue) into a separate business. The plan was approved by a majority of shareholders on October 30th. By December 1st, the new battery business, tentatively named “LG Energy Solutions” will be formed.The second-largest shareholder - National Pension Service (NPS), with around a 10% stake, was against the split in business, citing a loss in shareholder value as a concern. Following the news, LG Chem’s share price dropped by about 6% during the day, however, the share price has recovered since then and has increased by 17.8% compared to the close on the 30th of October. We agree that the possible dilution in equity value should concern current shareholders. However, for the battery business as a whole, we feel that this is advantageous. The battery business will now receive the focus and attention it deserves, and given the current EV momentum, this could be the best strategy LG Chem could adopt to grow its battery business. During the first eight months of 2020, LG Chem also led the battery market, beating CATL (A) (300750 CH), which held the leading position until 2019. We believe that this a good time to split the battery business and that this should allow the new business to grow strongly and closely compete with pure EV battery leader CATL.We go through the details below.

LG Chem Battery Business Becomes a Separate Entity

China

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS...

Vermilion Research

2021 High Conviction: LG Corp's Decade-Low Stub

The level for LG Corp is unjustified here. You can use single stock futures to sell LG E, LG H&H, and LGChem. Or there are pockets of borrow for...

David Blennerhassett

China's Next Generation: Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

China exposure is becoming more concentrated in a small number of large cap stocks. We identify the next generation of China stocks by analyzing...

Steven Holden

A Look at Nio’s Operations: BaaS Is the Recent Addition

In this insight, we look at Nio's operations, specifically its new business venture: battery as a service (BaaS), which it will jointly operate...

Aqila Ali

LG Chem Battery Business Becomes a Separate Entity

LG Chem receives a majority of shareholder approval to split its battery business into a separate business. This insight takes a look at our...

Aqila Ali

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