Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY24 (vs 4/9% in Q2FY24 and 8/9% in Q3FY23)</li><li>Mirroring the trends seen in Q2FY24, the demand has remained stable during the quarter</li><li>Recovery in rural markets remained below expectations while urban demand was steady</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY24 (vs 4/9% in Q2FY24 and 8/9% in Q3FY23)Mirroring the trends seen in Q2FY24, the demand has remained stable during the quarterRecovery in rural markets remained below expectations while urban demand was steadyContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Uninspiring demand recovery

<ul><li>Tata Motors: JLR Q2 margins declined 140bps QoQ to 14.9% due to adverse mix, higher VME + FME and this was despite higher capitalization rate</li><li>India PV and CV margins improved over 100bps QoQ, largely due to improved volumes and soft input costs</li><li>While FY24 is an operationally strong year for JLR, we expect it to face multiple headwinds from FY25, which include: 1) demand uncertainty in key regions, 2) normalization of mix, 3) rise in VME + FME as it moves from “demand pull” to “sales push mode”, 4) need to raise capex at a time when margins may not be supportive</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tata Motors: JLR Q2 margins declined 140bps QoQ to 14.9% due to adverse mix, higher VME + FME and this was despite higher capitalization rateIndia PV and CV margins improved over 100bps QoQ, largely due to improved volumes and soft input costsWhile FY24 is an operationally strong year for JLR, we expect it to face multiple headwinds from FY25, which include: 1) demand uncertainty in key regions, 2) normalization of mix, 3) rise in VME + FME as it moves from “demand pull” to “sales push mode”, 4) need to raise capex at a time when margins may not be supportiveContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Motors, Britannia Industries, Dabur, Hero Motocorp

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The company’s consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs 3,203 Cr, with its domestic business growing by 3.4% (3% volume growth/5% volume growth ex-beverage) and strong double-digit growth in HPC and HC segments as it continued to gain market share.</li><li>However, the Beverages segment was impacted owing to the uneven distribution of rainfall and shifts in the festive season.</li><li>The company’s International business grew 23.6% YoY (in cc terms). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company’s consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs 3,203 Cr, with its domestic business growing by 3.4% (3% volume growth/5% volume growth ex-beverage) and strong double-digit growth in HPC and HC segments as it continued to gain market share.However, the Beverages segment was impacted owing to the uneven distribution of rainfall and shifts in the festive season.The company’s International business grew 23.6% YoY (in cc terms). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur India  - Recovery On the Cards; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)</li><li>The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24</li><li>Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfall</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfallContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

India

Dabur India Ltd. manufactures soaps, detergents, hair oils, tooth powders, antacids and processed foods. The Company sells its products worldwide.

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Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Uninspiring demand recovery

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Motors, Britannia Industries, Dabur, Hero Motocorp

Tata Motors: JLR Q2 margins declined 140bps QoQ to 14.9% due to adverse mix, higher VME + FME and this was despite higher capitalization rate

HDFC Securities

Dabur India - Recovery On the Cards; Maintain BUY

The company’s consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs 3,203 Cr, with its domestic business growing by 3.4% (3% volume growth/5% volume growth ex...

Axis Direct

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)

HDFC Securities

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