Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We maintain a Neutral investment weighting after our downward revision of tourist arrivals for 2025E, which remain below pre-COVID levels.</li>
<li>This reflects a slowdown in Chinese tourists and a shift in their travel destination preference toward Japan.</li>
<li>However, the downside risk for SET TOURISM has become more limited, as the implied EPS has dropped to near the historical average. </li>
</ul>


We maintain a Neutral investment weighting after our downward revision of tourist arrivals for 2025E, which remain below pre-COVID levels.
This reflects a slowdown in Chinese tourists and a shift in their travel destination preference toward Japan.
However, the downside risk for SET TOURISM has become more limited, as the implied EPS has dropped to near the historical average. 


Tourism and Airline Sectors - MARCH 13, 2025

<ul><li>The SET initially rose, outperforming Asian bourses, which declined in line with US stock markets.</li><li>However, it reversed sharply in the afternoon session as the market lacked new supportive factors and concerns over trade wars persisted.</li><li>Selling pressure emerged in blue-chip stocks such as AOT, ADVANC, PTT, and banking stocks, leading to further selloffs. As a result, the index hit new lows</li></ul>

The SET initially rose, outperforming Asian bourses, which declined in line with US stock markets.However, it reversed sharply in the afternoon session as the market lacked new supportive factors and concerns over trade wars persisted.Selling pressure emerged in blue-chip stocks such as AOT, ADVANC, PTT, and banking stocks, leading to further selloffs. As a result, the index hit new lows

<ul><li>The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.</li><li>ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.</li><li>iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. </li></ul>

The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. 

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

<ul><li>The SET moved in the opposite direction of most Asian markets, which managed to rebound.</li><li>This decline was due to a lack of new supportive factors and disappointment over the 4Q24 earnings results.</li><li>The drops in DELTA, ADVANC, BBL, GULF, AOT, and CPALL further accelerated the index’s downturn, pushing it to a new low of 1,185.73 points and creating strongly negative market sentiment.</li></ul>

The SET moved in the opposite direction of most Asian markets, which managed to rebound.This decline was due to a lack of new supportive factors and disappointment over the 4Q24 earnings results.The drops in DELTA, ADVANC, BBL, GULF, AOT, and CPALL further accelerated the index’s downturn, pushing it to a new low of 1,185.73 points and creating strongly negative market sentiment.

<ul><li>The SET and Asian bourses declined due to concerns over the trade war, the impact of the MSCI Rebalancing, and weaker-than-expected 4Q24 earnings.</li><li>The index plunged to a new low of 1,186.36 points, pressured by blue-chip stocks, before recovering to stay above the 1,200-point mark in the afternoon session.</li><li>However, it still dropped 3.41% from the previous week.</li></ul>

The SET and Asian bourses declined due to concerns over the trade war, the impact of the MSCI Rebalancing, and weaker-than-expected 4Q24 earnings.The index plunged to a new low of 1,186.36 points, pressured by blue-chip stocks, before recovering to stay above the 1,200-point mark in the afternoon session.However, it still dropped 3.41% from the previous week.

Thailand

Airports of Thailand Public Company Ltd. operates the Bangkok International Airport (Don Muang) and the New Bangkok International Airport (Suvarnabhumi).. The Company also operates provincial airports in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Hat Yai, and Phuket.

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Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)

Tourism and Airline Sectors - MARCH 13, 2025

We maintain a Neutral investment weighting after our downward revision of tourist arrivals for 2025E, which remain below pre-COVID levels.

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis -MARCH 5, 2025

Selling pressure emerged in blue-chip stocks such as AOT, ADVANC, PTT, and banking stocks, leading to further selloffs. As a result, the index hit...

Krungthai XSpring

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

We maintain a Neutral view on the sector and select CENTEL as the top pick (Outperform; TP at Bt39.00), given its stronger-than-peer earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - MARCH 4, 2025

The drops in DELTA, ADVANC, BBL, GULF, AOT, and CPALL further accelerated the index’s downturn, pushing it to a new low of 1,185.73 points and...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis MARCH 3, 2025

The SET and Asian bourses declined due to concerns over the trade war, the impact of the MSCI Rebalancing, and weaker-than-expected 4Q24 earnings.

Krungthai XSpring

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