HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 9th national VBP is drawing near. As all drugs under national/provincial VBP are scheduled to be executed before 2025/12/31, there should be new policies in 2026 and beyond.</li>
<li>The capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in ADC field have at least stepped onto a platform to compete with international giants, which is clearly more progressive than during PD-1 era.</li>
<li>We analyzed key points of Ovctek. Its investment logic has changed and centralized procurement will break investors' expectations for Ovctek’s future performance growth. Valuation may continue to be under pressure.</li>
</ul>


The 9th national VBP is drawing near. As all drugs under national/provincial VBP are scheduled to be executed before 2025/12/31, there should be new policies in 2026 and beyond.
The capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in ADC field have at least stepped onto a platform to compete with international giants, which is clearly more progressive than during PD-1 era.
We analyzed key points of Ovctek. Its investment logic has changed and centralized procurement will break investors' expectations for Ovctek’s future performance growth. Valuation may continue to be under pressure.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.26)- 9th National VBP, China's Strength in ADC Field, Ovctek, Eyebright

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The contribution of innovative drugs cannot offset the generics revenue decline caused by VBP. Without PD-1 level big variety emerging, the pressure of VBP would continue for a long time. </li>
<li>Hengrui launched Luzsana to develop global business, seeming to send “a compromise and ambiguous signal” to various complex forces within this traditional pharmaceutical empire. ADC pipeline remains to be seen.</li>
<li>Hengrui still has many problems that are difficult to solve. Even though there is a rebound, Hengrui’s stock price performance may not deliver excess returns, with lower-than-expected upside elasticity.</li>
</ul>


The contribution of innovative drugs cannot offset the generics revenue decline caused by VBP. Without PD-1 level big variety emerging, the pressure of VBP would continue for a long time. 
Hengrui launched Luzsana to develop global business, seeming to send “a compromise and ambiguous signal” to various complex forces within this traditional pharmaceutical empire. ADC pipeline remains to be seen.
Hengrui still has many problems that are difficult to solve. Even though there is a rebound, Hengrui’s stock price performance may not deliver excess returns, with lower-than-expected upside elasticity.


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 2022/23Q1 - The Situation Is Not as Optimistic as Imagined

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. </li>
<li>We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. </li>
<li>Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. </li>
</ul>


It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. 
We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. 
Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. 


China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> moved 96mn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> into CCASS. Tencent shares fell hard. If the share price fell because of a block offering, that would be unwarranted. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro (086520 KS)</a> is up an eye-watering 590% in the past three months, primarily on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-bm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27873:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro BM (247540 KS)</a>'s outperformance, together with sentiment towards soon-to-be-listed 52.8% held Ecopro Materials. </li>
<li>Japan's Finance Minister said that companies need to improve their PBRs, and that "increasing corporate value of listed companies would allow for Japan to realise sustainable growth."</li>
</ul>



Prosus (PRX NA) moved 96mn shares of Tencent (700 HK) into CCASS. Tencent shares fell hard. If the share price fell because of a block offering, that would be unwarranted. 

Ecopro (086520 KS) is up an eye-watering 590% in the past three months, primarily on Ecopro BM (247540 KS)'s outperformance, together with sentiment towards soon-to-be-listed 52.8% held Ecopro Materials. 
Japan's Finance Minister said that companies need to improve their PBRs, and that "increasing corporate value of listed companies would allow for Japan to realise sustainable growth."


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.</li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.</li>
<li>Stocks mentioned in this insight include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmge-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:451:1" rel="noopener"> CMGE Tech (302 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/differ-group-auto-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3479:1" rel="noopener">Differ Group Auto (6878 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
Stocks mentioned in this insight include: Melco International Development (200 HK),  CMGE Tech (302 HK), Differ Group Auto (6878 HK), and Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)



Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (13 Apr): Melco, CMGE, Differ, Sino Biopharmaceutical

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (May.26)- 9th National VBP, China's Strength in ADC Field, Ovctek, Eyebright

The 9th national VBP is coming, but policy could change from 2026.We see positive factors in the performance of Chinese company in ADC field, who...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) 2022/23Q1 - The Situation Is Not as Optimistic as Imagined

The message that the management hopes to convey to investors is Hengrui's “darkest hour” has ended.But based on our analysis, low...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

In the context of the fading dividend of medical system reform and the lack of next big variety, the previous wave of innovative drug boom is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent, Ecopro, Japan’s Governance, Jardines, Citizen

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (13 Apr): Melco, CMGE, Differ, Sino Biopharmaceutical

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. These insights also flag those companies where...

David Blennerhassett

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