HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sino Biopharm plans to acquire Hob Biotech through "equity transfer + voluntary partial offer". The purchase price of RMB33.74/share is expensive considering the small market size and weak fundamentals.</li>
<li>Hob may not bring much financial value/asset appreciation to Sino Biopharm. Synergies between the two is limited.The main purpose for Sino Biopharm to acquire Hob is to achieve A-share listing.</li>
<li>Future valuation performance of Hob depends on what type of assets it will receive from Sino Biopharm as well as afterwards operation, which if smooth, will significantly boost Hob’s valuation.</li>
</ul>


Sino Biopharm plans to acquire Hob Biotech through "equity transfer + voluntary partial offer". The purchase price of RMB33.74/share is expensive considering the small market size and weak fundamentals.
Hob may not bring much financial value/asset appreciation to Sino Biopharm. Synergies between the two is limited.The main purpose for Sino Biopharm to acquire Hob is to achieve A-share listing.
Future valuation performance of Hob depends on what type of assets it will receive from Sino Biopharm as well as afterwards operation, which if smooth, will significantly boost Hob’s valuation.


Sino Biopharm (1177.HK) To Acquire Hob Biotech (688656.CH)- Time to Buy Hob and Sell Sino Biopharm?

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the final rankings for the HSCEI potential ADDs and potential DELs for the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>We see two ADDs/DELs - the same names we had in our last insight. At present, we expect US$474mn capping flows one-way but this can change by early-December 2024.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the final rankings for the HSCEI potential ADDs and potential DELs for the index rebal event in December 2024.
We see two ADDs/DELs - the same names we had in our last insight. At present, we expect US$474mn capping flows one-way but this can change by early-December 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Two Changes Likely; US$474mn Capping Flows One-Way

Equity Bottom-Up

Sino Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After performance headwinds in 2022 and 2023, we have seen a turnaround of Sino Biopharma in 24H1. The Company is gradually getting rid of the negative influence of VBP.</li>
<li>Even if the performance improves in 2024, there is still great uncertainty about whether the performance target for 2030 (revenue to reach HK$100 billion) can be achieved as scheduled.</li>
<li>The innovative drug pipeline actually lacks competitiveness. Current valuation is not cheap. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.</li>
</ul>


After performance headwinds in 2022 and 2023, we have seen a turnaround of Sino Biopharma in 24H1. The Company is gradually getting rid of the negative influence of VBP.
Even if the performance improves in 2024, there is still great uncertainty about whether the performance target for 2030 (revenue to reach HK$100 billion) can be achieved as scheduled.
The innovative drug pipeline actually lacks competitiveness. Current valuation is not cheap. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.


Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) 24H1 - The Concerns Behind the Performance Turnaround

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

PICC Property & Casualty H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.</li>
<li>There could be a move higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty</a> over the next few days while any selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties</a> will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.</li>
</ul>



PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) will replace Longfor Properties (960 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 6 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.
There could be a move higher in PICC Property &amp; Casualty over the next few days while any selling in Longfor Properties will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

<ul>
<li>The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.</li>
<li>GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.</li>
<li>In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.</li>
</ul>


The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.
GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.
In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

Sino Biopharm (1177.HK) To Acquire Hob Biotech (688656.CH)- Time to Buy Hob and Sell Sino Biopharm?

The price Sino Biopharm pays to acquire Hob is expensive.The main purpose is not asset appreciation but achieve A-share listing. Hob's future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Two Changes Likely; US$474mn Capping Flows One-Way

The one-way flow estimate for US$474mn translates to a turnover of roughly 4.2%. The final capping flows will be decided on 3rd December 2024.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA