Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684. After a dip and rise off of pivot trendline, we see a push toward 17,500 where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at least into Q1. We are nearing the mid-December peak risk cycle that will re surface in late January.A50 has been a top long bet from March. The cycle is starting to fracture.A shares and HK represent downside risk that would weigh on EEM and the leadership A shares have held for the better part of 2020. Macro bull case remains strong for China but the intermediate trend for A shares is at risk given the overlapping rise that has formed the rising wedge noted to date.Shanghai composite failing to clear the summer highs is also a weak point of divergence with the A50. After a bounce, the lows near 3,210 attract.Odds for a downside surprise is growing.

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684. After a dip and rise off of pivot trendline, we see a push toward 17,500 where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at least into Q1. We are nearing the mid-December peak risk cycle that will re surface in late January.A50 has been a top long bet from March. The cycle is starting to fracture.A shares and HK represent downside risk that would weigh on EEM and the leadership A shares have held for the better part of 2020. Macro bull case remains strong for China but the intermediate trend for A shares is at risk given the overlapping rise that has formed the rising wedge noted to date.Shanghai composite failing to clear the summer highs is also a weak point of divergence with the A50. After a bounce, the lows near 3,210 attract.Odds for a downside surprise is growing.

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Accelerating economic integration in the Greater Bay Area is  lies at the heart of China’s strategy to win the battle for economic supremacy.  It is key to China’s future economic prosperity and, directly counters America’s China containment strategy. A hub for high-tech advanced manufacturing and modern service industries the GBA is the laboratory for China’s innovation-driven development strategy, key to the success of President Xi’s Dual Circulation economic framework and Belt&amp;Road Initiative. Beijing recognises China containment will remain the lynchpin of US foreign policy. A Biden US presidency ensures that development of the GBA is only set to speed up. For investors seeking superior returns the case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger.

Accelerating economic integration in the Greater Bay Area is  lies at the heart of China’s strategy to win the battle for economic supremacy.  It is key to China’s future economic prosperity and, directly counters America’s China containment strategy. A hub for high-tech advanced manufacturing and modern service industries the GBA is the laboratory for China’s innovation-driven development strategy, key to the success of President Xi’s Dual Circulation economic framework and Belt&amp;Road Initiative. Beijing recognises China containment will remain the lynchpin of US foreign policy. A Biden US presidency ensures that development of the GBA is only set to speed up. For investors seeking superior returns the case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Qi An Xin Technology Group  / Event-Driven

The SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index, also know as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.
ETFs benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> raised just over CNY 21bn at launch and assets have since swelled to CNY 28.2bn due to inflows. The large amount of assets benchmarked to stocks with low free float and trading volumes creates an ideal environment for index rebalance trades to work, as we have seen in the upcoming review which will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 December.
With a maximum of 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will get in March. Potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cambricon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31068:1" rel="noopener">Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qi-an-xin-technology-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31069:1" rel="noopener">Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31070:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trina-solar-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30404:1" rel="noopener">Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/farasis-energy-gan-zhou-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28385:1" rel="noopener">Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH)</a>.
The potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longyan-zhuoyue-new-energy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30364:1" rel="noopener">Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-tztek-technology-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28232:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-seeyon-internet-so-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30393:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-jiuri-new-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30366:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujian-forecam-optics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30306:1" rel="noopener">Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH)</a>.
One-way turnover is around 13% and there is big impact expected on the stocks, especially on the deletes, and a trade of buying the expected inclusions and selling the expected exclusions could perform well.

The SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index, also know as the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX), is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.
ETFs benchmarked to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX) raised just over CNY 21bn at launch and assets have since swelled to CNY 28.2bn due to inflows. The large amount of assets benchmarked to stocks with low free float and trading volumes creates an ideal environment for index rebalance trades to work, as we have seen in the upcoming review which will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 December.
With a maximum of 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will get in March. Potential inclusions are Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH), Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH), Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH), Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH) and Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH).
The potential deletions are Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH), Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH), Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH), Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH) and Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH).
One-way turnover is around 13% and there is big impact expected on the stocks, especially on the deletes, and a trade of buying the expected inclusions and selling the expected exclusions could perform well.

STAR Board: STAR50 Index Rebalance March21: Rising AUM and a New Index Make an Exciting Combination

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on December 3, 2020 released finalized standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that tighter regulations will be announced shortly; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value.

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on December 3, 2020 released finalized standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that tighter regulations will be announced shortly; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value. 

Beijing Roborock Technology  / Event-Driven

Yesterday evening post market close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.The  inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-silicon-industry-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30349:1" rel="noopener">National Silicon Industry -A (688126 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-roborock-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30358:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Roborock Technolog-A (688169 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autel-intelligent-technolo-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30369:1" rel="noopener">Autel Intelligent Technolo-A (688208 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-microelect-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30396:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Microelect-A (688396 CH)</a> and SMIC (688981 CH).The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-harmontronics-autom-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30315:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Harmontronics Autom-A (688022 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-worldia-diamond-tools" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30319:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-tianyishangjia-new-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30322:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Tianyishangjia New-A (688033 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-baolande-software-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30327:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Baolande Software-A (688058 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-abt-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30357:1" rel="noopener">Beijing ABT Networks Co Ltd (688168 CH)</a>.With a little more than CNY 21bn benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, there is quite an impact expected on a few stocks. One-way turnover is close to 30% and the funding flow will impact quite a few index constituents with over 1.5 days of ADV to sell. There are only 11 trading days to implementation and we do not expect a lot of pre-positions have been built up on the stocks.

Yesterday evening post market close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX). The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 December.The  inclusions are National Silicon Industry -A (688126 CH), Beijing Roborock Technolog-A (688169 CH), Autel Intelligent Technolo-A (688208 CH), China Resources Microelect-A (688396 CH) and SMIC (688981 CH).The deletions are Suzhou Harmontronics Autom-A (688022 CH), Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028 CH), Beijing Tianyishangjia New-A (688033 CH), Beijing Baolande Software-A (688058 CH) and Beijing ABT Networks Co Ltd (688168 CH).With a little more than CNY 21bn benchmarked to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX), there is quite an impact expected on a few stocks. One-way turnover is close to 30% and the funding flow will impact quite a few index constituents with over 1.5 days of ADV to sell. There are only 11 trading days to implementation and we do not expect a lot of pre-positions have been built up on the stocks.

STAR 50 Index Rebalance: We Thought BIG, Turns Out Its BIGGER

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

China A50 Deterioration a Risk for Asia

A50 is starting to show rally momentum problems as we near our macro target at 17,684 (17,500) where risk to reward turns less favorable/bearish at...

Thomas Schroeder

Biden, US-China Relations & Xi's Plan

For investors seeking superior returns the case for investing in GBA companies has never looked stronger. Companies are investing in next...

Sharmila Whelan

STAR Board: STAR50 Index Rebalance March21: Rising AUM and a New Index Make an Exciting Combination

Increasing assets benchmarked to the STAR50 index and comparatively low trading volumes on the expected inclusions and exclusions provide an ideal...

Brian Freitas

China Banks – About Time

CHINA BANKS: PBOC and CBIRC Released Finalized D-SIB Standards and Indicated Tighter Regulations. Aggressive Capital Raises Are Expected.

Thomas J. Monaco

STAR 50 Index Rebalance: We Thought BIG, Turns Out Its BIGGER

The second rebalance of the STAR50 index is going be BIG with 5 additions/deletions and one-way turnover of 30%. We do not expect a lot of pre...

Brian Freitas