Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 16 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, 50 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.</li>
<li>There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 16 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.
There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.
Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.


CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a> is in a trading halt “<em>pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.</em>” </li>
<li>The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.</li>
<li>We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.</li>
</ul>



Vesync (2148 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.
We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.


Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;</li>
<li>TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;</li>
<li>TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.</li>
</ul>


On November 18th, 2024, Temasek-affiliated investment fund 65Equity bought 13% of TUYA, an IOT hardware company and planned to bring the company to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange;
TUYA is trading at US$901mn market cap, equivalent to 3.2x 12TTM sales. This isn't cheap. Xiaomi, a high flying stock, now trades at 2.0x 12TTM sales. TUYA is not profitable;
TUYA is a good and real company but in a bad business. Electronics inventory cycle and advanced stocking for Trump's Tariff Hike shall support earnings in the next few quarters.


TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials and Materials sectors could gaining 2 spots each and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
Estimated one-way turnover of 3% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 30.2bn (US$4.3bn). There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month despite rising markets and a wall of money flowing into Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ETFs.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

China

Beijing Roborock Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells household vacuum cleaners. The Company researches, develops, and produces robotic home cleaners and other cleaning appliances. Beijing Roborock Technology also manufactures and sells household appliance parts.

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Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH)

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI indices (and a bunch of others) rebalance at the close today - it's going to be a big volume day in China. The CSI300 adds have...

Brian Freitas

Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71....

Arun George

TUYA: Is The King of White Label IOT Ready to Charter a Different Course?

Temasek bought 13% of TUYA and planned to list on SGX. We believe TUYA's valuation is high and the company's business model, customer segment and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Rising Markets and ETF Creations Take Round-Trip Trade to US$8.5bn

There could be 17 changes in Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 3%; 1-way trade is US$4.3bn. There are 14 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade. The adds...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

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