Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.</li>
<li>Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. </li>
<li>None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. </li>
</ul>


Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.
Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. 
None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. 


Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Oil and gold remain under pressure due to a firm US dollar. Use strikes to the downside in oil to re cycle a short near 75 resistance. </li>
<li>Our sell call in gold at 2,060 is pressing below 1,980 with a target of 1,900 where we start to probe for an intermediate cycle low.</li>
<li>We view this as a tactical pullback within a more bullish macro cycle. USD counter play.</li>
</ul>


Oil and gold remain under pressure due to a firm US dollar. Use strikes to the downside in oil to re cycle a short near 75 resistance. 
Our sell call in gold at 2,060 is pressing below 1,980 with a target of 1,900 where we start to probe for an intermediate cycle low.
We view this as a tactical pullback within a more bullish macro cycle. USD counter play.


Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>El Nino effects start to sink in? During last week grain prices saw building up some momentum.</li><li>The DSCI drought index also surged after many weeks of continuous declines.</li><li>Nevertheless, we should actually see lots of rain during the summer in the US if we’ll see a classic El Nino.</li></ul>

El Nino effects start to sink in? During last week grain prices saw building up some momentum.The DSCI drought index also surged after many weeks of continuous declines.Nevertheless, we should actually see lots of rain during the summer in the US if we’ll see a classic El Nino.

The World Has a New No. 2 Copper Supplier  - El Nino Effects Start to Sink In?

<ul><li>While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than expected at 55,1 (52,6 expected)</li><li>Prometheus Research shared this overview with us that highlights that the Service sector continues to hold this economy up.</li><li>The majority of service businesses continue to stay in the growing territory - this needs to change before we actually see a recession in the service sector as well. Keep in mind that the Manufacturing sector in the US accounts for “only” 11% of GDP!</li></ul>

While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than expected at 55,1 (52,6 expected)Prometheus Research shared this overview with us that highlights that the Service sector continues to hold this economy up.The majority of service businesses continue to stay in the growing territory - this needs to change before we actually see a recession in the service sector as well. Keep in mind that the Manufacturing sector in the US accounts for “only” 11% of GDP!

Make or break time for Gold // Goldman Sachs has no feeling for timing oil trades

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not <em>have to</em> end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

Shedding more light on what US yield curve inversion actually means for the likelihood of US recessions and asset class returns.

Jeroen Blokland

WTI and Gold Targets

Oil and gold remain under pressure due to a firm US dollar. Use strikes to the downside in oil to re cycle a short near 75. Gold 2,060 sell call is...

Thomas Schroeder

The World Has a New No. 2 Copper Supplier - El Nino Effects Start to Sink In?

El Nino effects start to sink in? During last week grain prices saw building up some momentum. The DSCI drought index also surged after many weeks...

The Commodity Report

Make or break time for Gold // Goldman Sachs has no feeling for timing oil trades

While the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected at 48,5 (50,0 expected), the Flash Service PMI came in once again higher than...

The Commodity Report

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

So far there has been little traction above $SPX 4200. Weak breadth remains an obvious problem. We are watching the $IWM which is testing $180; a...

Vermilion Research

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