Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX developments.</li><li>Our models continue to signal weakness ahead for the JPY.</li><li>Even a move to 1% in the YCC-curve control has NOT allowed the BoJ to become less interventionist.</li></ul>

Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX developments.Our models continue to signal weakness ahead for the JPY.Even a move to 1% in the YCC-curve control has NOT allowed the BoJ to become less interventionist.

FX Nugget: What Policy Normalization? The BoJ Is as Interventionist as Ever….

<ul><li>In our “Nugget series” we aim at visualizing the most important themes in global macro with a few timely charts and very few words.</li><li>Today we will explain the market moves of the day with our “PBoC doom loop”.</li><li>Today’s market in short: A rebound in CNY after intervention above 7.30 against the USD, a sharp move higher in USDJPY and higher USD rates.</li></ul>

In our “Nugget series” we aim at visualizing the most important themes in global macro with a few timely charts and very few words.Today we will explain the market moves of the day with our “PBoC doom loop”.Today’s market in short: A rebound in CNY after intervention above 7.30 against the USD, a sharp move higher in USDJPY and higher USD rates.

<ul><li>In our “Nugget series” we aim at visualizing the most important themes in global macro with a few timely charts and very few words.</li><li>This nugget will show why USDCNH is the by far most important global bellwether at this stage and why 7.20 (or 7.30) will serve as the most important level to watch in global macro.</li><li>Let’s look at 3 charts why USDCNH is a very binary predictor of risk assetsUSDCNY has served as a risk asset barometer around key intervention levels.</li></ul>

In our “Nugget series” we aim at visualizing the most important themes in global macro with a few timely charts and very few words.This nugget will show why USDCNH is the by far most important global bellwether at this stage and why 7.20 (or 7.30) will serve as the most important level to watch in global macro.Let’s look at 3 charts why USDCNH is a very binary predictor of risk assetsUSDCNY has served as a risk asset barometer around key intervention levels.

Macro Strategy Nugget: Why USDCNH > or < 7.30 is everything you need to watch

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China could become a ‘Credit Event.’ Despite a slew of new stimulus measures by the Chinese government, they are not comprehensive enough to rule out one or more credit events.</li>
<li>200-Day moving averages hit. Several equity market indices have dipped below their 200-day moving average, including the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. </li>
<li>Response to the latest US inflation figure. In contrast to previous favorable inflation figures, American stocks closed lower on the day following the publication.</li>
</ul>


China could become a ‘Credit Event.’ Despite a slew of new stimulus measures by the Chinese government, they are not comprehensive enough to rule out one or more credit events.
200-Day moving averages hit. Several equity market indices have dipped below their 200-day moving average, including the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 
Response to the latest US inflation figure. In contrast to previous favorable inflation figures, American stocks closed lower on the day following the publication.


Back with a Bang! – Macro and Sentiment Call for an Underweight in Equities

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! This week we have witnessed considerable turmoil in the markets, and it would be an exaggeration to claim that we’ve emerged from it unscathed.</li><li>A few positions have been stopped-out but it is some source of consolation that our strongest conviction trades remain performers in an otherwise red massacre in financial markets. We have been rather vocal about our major conviction of a steepening of the yield curve was if not inevitable then at least very favourable on a r/r basis.</li><li>I too have clearly declared my aversion against the momentum of risk assets.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! This week we have witnessed considerable turmoil in the markets, and it would be an exaggeration to claim that we’ve emerged from it unscathed.A few positions have been stopped-out but it is some source of consolation that our strongest conviction trades remain performers in an otherwise red massacre in financial markets. We have been rather vocal about our major conviction of a steepening of the yield curve was if not inevitable then at least very favourable on a r/r basis.I too have clearly declared my aversion against the momentum of risk assets.

Portfolio Watch: Catching a Chinese Cold?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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FX Nugget: What Policy Normalization? The BoJ Is as Interventionist as Ever….

Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX...

Steno Research

Rates & FX nugget: The PBoC doom-loop

In our “Nugget series” we aim at visualizing the most important themes in global macro with a few timely charts and very few words. Today we will...

Steno Research

Macro Strategy Nugget: Why USDCNH > or < 7.30 is everything you need to watch

In our “Nugget series” we aim at visualizing the most important themes in global macro with a few timely charts and very few words. This nugget...

Steno Research

Back with a Bang! – Macro and Sentiment Call for an Underweight in Equities

We lower the weight of Emerging and Developed Market Equities on recent developments in China, indices dropping below their 200-day moving...

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Watch: Catching a Chinese Cold?

This week we have witnessed considerable turmoil in the markets, and it would be an exaggeration to claim that we’ve emerged from it unscathed.

Steno Research

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