Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Fringe financial companies often reveal underlying credit metrics before mainstream banks.This is the case across Asia in several cycles, as well as in the US during its subprime loan crisis. This is why it is illustrative to understand the near 40% profit decline at Zhejiang Xiaoshan Rural Cooperative Bank (ZGX).Thus far, only CCCR has shown worse profit growth, although many third tier banks have yet to report full-year numbers.<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/007/265/original/net%20profit%20zgx.png?1460871073" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="7265"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: SNL Financial</figcaption></figure>As can be expected it has suffered fromhigher…

Fringe financial companies often reveal underlying credit metrics before mainstream banks.This is the case across Asia in several cycles, as well as in the US during its subprime loan crisis. This is why it is illustrative to understand the near 40% profit decline at Zhejiang Xiaoshan Rural Cooperative Bank (ZGX).Thus far, only CCCR has shown worse profit growth, although many third tier banks have yet to report full-year numbers.Source: SNL FinancialAs can be expected it has suffered fromhigher…

A China Cooperative Bank with near 40% Profit Contraction Is Illustrative

China Commercial Credit is a specialty lender in China, although it is a listed entity in the US. What is interesting here is how its financials have deteriorated so dramatically. Where all are focused on the near zero profit growth of China’s banks, CCR shows how losses can mount to considerable levels. It is making big losses now for the past two years. It also reminds us of finance companies in Thailand in the late 1990’s and in the US subprime crisis more recently, which were the best…

China Commercial Credit is a specialty lender in China, although it is a listed entity in the US. What is interesting here is how its financials have deteriorated so dramatically. Where all are focused on the near zero profit growth of China’s banks, CCR shows how losses can mount to considerable levels. It is making big losses now for the past two years. It also reminds us of finance companies in Thailand in the late 1990’s and in the US subprime crisis more recently, which were the best…

Devastating Losses at Little Known China Specialty Lender Has Negative Implications for Bank Sector

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.</div>As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12141/epdf" target="_blank">recent paper</a>(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a recent paper(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

<ul><li>BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights</li><li>In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assets</li><li>The risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the most</li><li>Australia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convinced</li><li>Hang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears</li></ul>

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weightsIn all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assetsThe risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the mostAustralia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convincedHang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears 

China


Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, custody, underwriting, asset management, and investment consulting services.

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Everbright Securities (H) (6178 HK)

A China Cooperative Bank with near 40% Profit Contraction Is Illustrative

Fringe financial companies often reveal underlying credit metrics before mainstream banks.This is the case across Asia in several cycles, as well...

Daniel Tabbush

Devastating Losses at Little Known China Specialty Lender Has Negative Implications for Bank Sector

China Commercial Credit is a specialty lender in China, although it is a listed entity in the US. What is interesting here is how its financials...

Daniel Tabbush

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy. Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the...

Mark Artherton

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Regulatory Changes to Credit Risk

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets,...

Daniel Tabbush

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