Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> shares stop trading after the close on 26 October and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs will start trading from the open on 27 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> in the S&amp;P/ASX indices from 27 October. But there could be index changes at the subsequent rebalances.</li>
<li>Based on the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/block-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35684:1" rel="noopener">Block (SQ2 AU)</a>, we could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs deleted from the ASX20 Index in December and from the ASX50 Index in March/June.</li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) shares stop trading after the close on 26 October and Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs will start trading from the open on 27 October.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs should replace Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX indices from 27 October. But there could be index changes at the subsequent rebalances.
Based on the case of Block (SQ2 AU), we could see Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs deleted from the ASX20 Index in December and from the ASX50 Index in March/June.


Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

<ul>
<li>Privatisations could lead to two/three <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.</li>
<li>Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in December.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


Privatisations could lead to two/three S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.
Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in December.
The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> closed down last week (CC=-1), this week is rising again, we analyze the new, reset resistance levels to see how far it can go.</li>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-sp-asx200-index-will-it-break-out-of-its-range" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous, recent insight</a> discussed the fact that the index has been locked in a range for 2 years, an uptrend may be unfolding but it must breach 7600.</li>
<li>The current trend pattern is bearish, the index won't rise more than 2-3 weeks, and it would probably go not very far: 7300-7400 should be the limit</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) closed down last week (CC=-1), this week is rising again, we analyze the new, reset resistance levels to see how far it can go.
Our previous, recent insight discussed the fact that the index has been locked in a range for 2 years, an uptrend may be unfolding but it must breach 7600.
The current trend pattern is bearish, the index won't rise more than 2-3 weeks, and it would probably go not very far: 7300-7400 should be the limit


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

Australia

WiseTech Global Pty Ltd provides various technology and information technology management solutions. The Company offers cloud based various technology platforms, market specific software and logistics technology solutions, such as edienterprise, a platform supply chain logistics management system, software-as-a-service, and clinical management software. 

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Wisetech Global (WTC AU)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Newmont CDIs should replace Newcrest in the ASX indices. Using Block as a precedent, a decrease in the number of CDIs held in Oz could lead to...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...

Nico Rosti

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Newcrest/Newmont & Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Newmont CDIs should replace Newcrest in the ASX indices. Using Block as a precedent, a decrease in the number of CDIs held in Oz could lead to...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

​The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...

Nico Rosti

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...