Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shell's Q2 revenue dipped 0.2% YoY, but net profit increased by 12.2%. Both revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 7.4% and 5.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>Shell cut total debt by 10.5% YoY to USD 74.5 billion, with net debt down 5% YoY to USD 38.3 billion.</li>
<li>Shell recorded a USD 708 million impairment from selling its Singapore refinery and another USD 783 million from pausing construction on a European biofuel plant.</li>
</ul>


Shell's Q2 revenue dipped 0.2% YoY, but net profit increased by 12.2%. Both revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 7.4% and 5.1%, respectively.
Shell cut total debt by 10.5% YoY to USD 74.5 billion, with net debt down 5% YoY to USD 38.3 billion.
Shell recorded a USD 708 million impairment from selling its Singapore refinery and another USD 783 million from pausing construction on a European biofuel plant.


[Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains

<ul>
<li>Shell forecasts a decline in upstream production, gas price realisations, and refining margins. Its QoQ Revenue &amp; EPS are expected to drop 4.3% and 21.7%, respectively.</li>
<li>Shell anticipates Q2 post-tax impairments of USD 1.5 to USD 2 billion due to halting a biofuels plant in Rotterdam and divesting its Singapore refinery.</li>
<li>On a brighter note, Shell anticipates higher chemical margins, increased marketing sales volume, and improved refinery utilisation rates in Q2.</li>
</ul>


Shell forecasts a decline in upstream production, gas price realisations, and refining margins. Its QoQ Revenue &amp; EPS are expected to drop 4.3% and 21.7%, respectively.
Shell anticipates Q2 post-tax impairments of USD 1.5 to USD 2 billion due to halting a biofuels plant in Rotterdam and divesting its Singapore refinery.
On a brighter note, Shell anticipates higher chemical margins, increased marketing sales volume, and improved refinery utilisation rates in Q2.


[Earnings Preview] Bleeding Refining Margins & Lower Gas Prices to Eat into Shell’s Earnings

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).</li>
<li>On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.</li>
</ul>


The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&amp;P 500.
Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).
On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.


Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date.</li>
<li>Robust demand due to recovery in economic activity across major markets has been a steady tailwind to oil prices despite the prevalent geo-political catalysts that have spurred across global markets.</li>
<li>Globally listed oil and gas producers and service providers have therefore seen a marginal improvement in their aggregate credit risk profiles, with their Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) dropping by close to 2bps over the same period.</li>
</ul>


Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date.
Robust demand due to recovery in economic activity across major markets has been a steady tailwind to oil prices despite the prevalent geo-political catalysts that have spurred across global markets.
Globally listed oil and gas producers and service providers have therefore seen a marginal improvement in their aggregate credit risk profiles, with their Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) dropping by close to 2bps over the same period.


Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-48d2d58c-023d-485f-887d-f13ca5f049f6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25197:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-48d2d58c-023d-485f-887d-f13ca5f049f6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25197:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)</a> has announced a simplification of its share structure resulting in an increase in the speed and flexibility of capital actions.</li>
<li>The name of the company will change from Royal Dutch Shell plc to Shell plc.  It's expected that the company will no longer meet conditions to use the 'Royal' designation.</li>
<li>The proposed structure will help in conducting buybacks and there could be a quick shareholder payout following the US$7bn sale of Shell's Permian assets in the US.</li>
</ul>



Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)/ Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA) has announced a simplification of its share structure resulting in an increase in the speed and flexibility of capital actions.
The name of the company will change from Royal Dutch Shell plc to Shell plc.  It's expected that the company will no longer meet conditions to use the 'Royal' designation.
The proposed structure will help in conducting buybacks and there could be a quick shareholder payout following the US$7bn sale of Shell's Permian assets in the US.


Shell Plc - No Longer Royal Post Simplification

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

[Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains

Shell's Q2 revenue slightly decreased, but net profit rose significantly. Revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations. Net debt was reduced and...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Bleeding Refining Margins & Lower Gas Prices to Eat into Shell’s Earnings

Shell faces lower refining margins, production, and gas prices, plus a USD 1.5-2 billion impairment. However, higher chemical margins and marketing...

Mint Finance

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...

Mint Finance

Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date. Robust demand...

Criat

Shell Plc - No Longer Royal Post Simplification

Royal Dutch Shell is simplifying its share structure by merging its Class A and Class B shares and changing its name to Shell plc. The...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains

​Shell's Q2 revenue slightly decreased, but net profit rose significantly. Revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations. Net debt was reduced and...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Bleeding Refining Margins & Lower Gas Prices to Eat into Shell’s Earnings

Shell faces lower refining margins, production, and gas prices, plus a USD 1.5-2 billion impairment. However, higher chemical margins and marketing...

Mint Finance

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

​Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...

Mint Finance

Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date. Robust demand...

Criat

Shell Plc - No Longer Royal Post Simplification

Royal Dutch Shell is simplifying its share structure by merging its Class A and Class B shares and changing its name to Shell plc. The...

Brian Freitas

Shell's Q2 revenue slightly decreased, but net profit rose significantly. Revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations. Net debt was reduced and...

Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...