Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. </li>
<li>The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.</li>
<li>Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.</li>
</ul>


Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. 
The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.
Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.


Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. </li>
<li>The stock popped 7% the next day to ¥1302, on the highest volume since the covid crash, hesitated a day, then powered almost 20% higher through the end of March. </li>
<li>Today, Mitsui Fudosan responded with an Amendment to their Plan out to 2030. It has a higher dividend, a share buyback, higher EPS target growth, and higher ROE target. But...</li>
</ul>


9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. 
The stock popped 7% the next day to ¥1302, on the highest volume since the covid crash, hesitated a day, then powered almost 20% higher through the end of March. 
Today, Mitsui Fudosan responded with an Amendment to their Plan out to 2030. It has a higher dividend, a share buyback, higher EPS target growth, and higher ROE target. But...


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>For the first time since 2016, the Bank of Japan has decided to raise interest rates, becoming the last country in the world to end its loose monetary policy stance, and signaling an end to the country’s deflationary cycle that has dominated policy decisions for the better part of the last decade. The impact of the BoJ’s policy move this week has led to volatility in global markets.</li>
<li>The Japanese Yen (JPY) has also depreciated against major currencies since the central bank raised its policy rate, as the policy move is suggestive of a gradual transition from accommodative policy by the central bank, rather than a hard exit into a tighter monetary environment.</li>
<li>Prior to the rate hike, the JPY has also seen a relatively softer appreciation against many developed currencies, especially the USD, as global markets priced in fewer than expected rate cuts by the Fed over the year making the interest rate differential still attractive.</li>
</ul>


For the first time since 2016, the Bank of Japan has decided to raise interest rates, becoming the last country in the world to end its loose monetary policy stance, and signaling an end to the country’s deflationary cycle that has dominated policy decisions for the better part of the last decade. The impact of the BoJ’s policy move this week has led to volatility in global markets.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has also depreciated against major currencies since the central bank raised its policy rate, as the policy move is suggestive of a gradual transition from accommodative policy by the central bank, rather than a hard exit into a tighter monetary environment.
Prior to the rate hike, the JPY has also seen a relatively softer appreciation against many developed currencies, especially the USD, as global markets priced in fewer than expected rate cuts by the Fed over the year making the interest rate differential still attractive.


Japanese Banks Improved on Rate Hike Bets, Although True Impact Yet to Materialize

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100SXVR.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2024-02-28T11%3A55%3A56Z&amp;se=2029-02-28T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=KsmAvBaNzu2rEiYRuXlPOtKaHqN1iiDtl2acvAB9gH8%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.42% shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>. Murakami started buying a day after the disastrous 3QFY23 results.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY2,137.88 per share, a 34% discount to the pre-3QFY23 results share price. </li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a> playbook.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, reported a 5.42% shareholding in Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). Murakami started buying a day after the disastrous 3QFY23 results.
Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY2,137.88 per share, a 34% discount to the pre-3QFY23 results share price. 
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the Pacific Metals (5541 JP) playbook.


Aozora Bank (8304 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Resona Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services, including banking, trust operations, and credit card services. Resona Holdings also offers consulting services related to personal loans, asset management, and asset succession.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established jointly by Chuo Mitsui Trust Holdings and Sumitomo Trust and Banking. As a financial group, the Bank provides trust banking business, as well as securities brokerage, assets management, and related financial services.

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is a diversified financial services organization.  The Company provides regional banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services nationally and in the Company's primary regional markets.

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Along with its results announcement today, MS&AD announced that it will accelerate its cross-shareholding unwind and is targeting a sale of around...

Sumeet Singh

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan

Elliott Management bought Mitsui Fudosan. Argued for asset sales and buybacks. Mitsui Fudosan has responded with plans for asset sales and...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Banks Improved on Rate Hike Bets, Although True Impact Yet to Materialize

For the first time since 2016, the Bank of Japan has decided to raise interest rates, becoming the last country in the world to end its loose...

Criat

Aozora Bank (8304 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the Pacific Metals...

Arun George

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