Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nissin Foods Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Three shareholders of Nissin Foods plan to raise around US$226m via a global offering by selling 2.9% of the company. The selldown is being undertaken to reduce the cross shareholding.In this insight, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and provide our thoughts on the deal.

Three shareholders of Nissin Foods plan to raise around US$226m via a global offering by selling 2.9% of the company. The selldown is being undertaken to reduce the cross shareholding.In this insight, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and provide our thoughts on the deal.

Nissin Foods Placements - Shouldn't Have a Large Impact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Japanese financial markets are now so liquid, thanks to the efforts of the BoJ as well as the commercial banks to minimize the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, that bankruptcies in January 2021 fell to their lowest level in 31 years.  Meanwhile, overall lending continues to edge down in terms of loans outstanding, even though YoY growth rates remain relatively high.While the Japanese bank sector has enjoyed a rally since the beginning of the year as the Nikkei-225 Index rises to its highest level in 31 years on high hopes for the successful roll-out of an effective COVID-19 vaccine, the fundamental outlook for the banks is clouded.   “Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

The Japanese financial markets are now so liquid, thanks to the efforts of the BoJ as well as the commercial banks to minimize the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, that bankruptcies in January 2021 fell to their lowest level in 31 years.  Meanwhile, overall lending continues to edge down in terms of loans outstanding, even though YoY growth rates remain relatively high.While the Japanese bank sector has enjoyed a rally since the beginning of the year as the Nikkei-225 Index rises to its highest level in 31 years on high hopes for the successful roll-out of an effective COVID-19 vaccine, the fundamental outlook for the banks is clouded.   “Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Bank Lending:  The Good, The Bad & The Terminally Indebted

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Credit Agricole and Societe Generale have reported dismal quarterly results. This may have negative implications for HSBC in the region. We continue to believe that HSBC Holdings will not fare as well as many banks globally, and perhaps its operations in France are just one reason for this.

Credit Agricole and Societe Generale have reported dismal quarterly results. This may have negative implications for HSBC in the region. We continue to believe that HSBC Holdings will not fare as well as many banks globally, and perhaps its operations in France are just one reason for this. 

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

Nissin Foods Placements - Shouldn't Have a Large Impact

Three shareholders of Nissin Foods plan to raise around US$226m via a global offering by selling 2.9% of the company. The selldown is being...

Sumeet Singh

Pairs Trading Ideas - Asian Financials

We look at liquid and large cap pairs from the financials sector that exhibit mean-reversion and are currently trading at or near an extreme based...

Brian Freitas

Japanese Bank Lending: The Good, The Bad & The Terminally Indebted

Japanese financial markets are now so liquid, thanks to the efforts of the BoJ and the commercial banks, that bankruptcies in January 2021 fell to...

J. Brian Waterhouse

HSBC – Vive La France!

Credit Agricole and Societe Generale have reported dismal quarterly results. This may have negative implications for HSBC in the region.

Daniel Tabbush

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