Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Reuters reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a>, the largest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.</li>
<li>As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.</li>
<li>Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. </li>
</ul>


Reuters reported that KKR &amp; Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings were… acceptable.</li>
<li>
The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.
</li>
<li>
Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.

</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings were… acceptable.

The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.


Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.




Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY</li>
<li>China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion</li>
<li>A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY
China's annual WFE spending has roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 to $36.6 billion
A combination of China's WFE customers including new entrants and a high failure rate among semi startups means that spending has not yet translated into corresponding increase in semi output


Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. Expect a secondary offering announcement...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

As per media reports, KKR is considering sell half its stake in Kokusai, with the company planning to buyback some shares as well. The company has...

Sumeet Singh

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

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Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. Expect a secondary offering announcement...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

As per media reports, KKR is considering sell half its stake in Kokusai, with the company planning to buyback some shares as well. The company has...

Sumeet Singh

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor WFE Q124 Revenues, China's Share & What Are They Doing With All Those Tools?

Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $26.4 billion in Q124, down 6% QoQ and down 2% YoY. China's annual WFE spending has roughly...

William Keating