Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung SDI and LG Chem are expected to be newly included in the index, while Hana Financial and KT&amp;G Corporation are predicted to be excluded.</li>
<li>The correlation between the price movement and the flow direction on the rebalancing trading day of constituent changes from the past reviews was quite high.</li>
<li>We can set the price impact expectation for the upcoming review even more aggressively, given that the size of the flow x DTV is more significant than in previous cases.</li>
</ul>


Samsung SDI and LG Chem are expected to be newly included in the index, while Hana Financial and KT&amp;G Corporation are predicted to be excluded.
The correlation between the price movement and the flow direction on the rebalancing trading day of constituent changes from the past reviews was quite high.
We can set the price impact expectation for the upcoming review even more aggressively, given that the size of the flow x DTV is more significant than in previous cases.


Price/Flow Impact on Four Constituent Changes in KODEX Top 5 Plus ETF Rebalancing in June

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Celltrion and Posco Holdings will switch places. Although there is still time until the screening period, the market capitalization gap between them has already widened significantly.</li>
<li>Posco Holdings will likely welcome a passive inflow of 0.44x ADTV, whereas Celltrion is expected to face outflows of around 0.69x ADTV.</li>
<li>Ecopro BM entered the Top 20 (preliminary screening table) with a YTD stock price increase of 130%, becoming the first KOSDAQ-listed company to do so.</li>
</ul>


Celltrion and Posco Holdings will switch places. Although there is still time until the screening period, the market capitalization gap between them has already widened significantly.
Posco Holdings will likely welcome a passive inflow of 0.44x ADTV, whereas Celltrion is expected to face outflows of around 0.69x ADTV.
Ecopro BM entered the Top 20 (preliminary screening table) with a YTD stock price increase of 130%, becoming the first KOSDAQ-listed company to do so.


Long Short Setup Candidate: Posco Holdings & Celltrion with TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing

<ul>
<li>Notable names that have proposed amendments to their articles of association for changing the dividend record date at this year's AGM include Hyundai Motor Group, POSCO Holdings, and Kakao Corp.</li>
<li>There were skeptical views on how much response local big-name companies would show to Korea FSC's plan. However, the response from large companies has been unexpectedly positive and aggressive.</li>
<li>We should consider the possibility that the preferred stock premium of companies whose dividend visibility has improved through this may continue to improve compared to those that have not.</li>
</ul>


Notable names that have proposed amendments to their articles of association for changing the dividend record date at this year's AGM include Hyundai Motor Group, POSCO Holdings, and Kakao Corp.
There were skeptical views on how much response local big-name companies would show to Korea FSC's plan. However, the response from large companies has been unexpectedly positive and aggressive.
We should consider the possibility that the preferred stock premium of companies whose dividend visibility has improved through this may continue to improve compared to those that have not.


Dividend Record Date Changes Already in Progress in Korea: Trading Ramifications

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

South Korea

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

Price/Flow Impact on Four Constituent Changes in KODEX Top 5 Plus ETF Rebalancing in June

This post presents a Long Short basket trade idea on the four potential constituent changes in the KODEX Top 5 Plus TR ETF rebalancing in June.

Sanghyun Park

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Long Short Setup Candidate: Posco Holdings & Celltrion with TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing

TIGER Top 10 ETF's upcoming rebalancing, scheduled for June 9, presents a feasible long short trade setup on Posco Holdings and Celltrion.

Sanghyun Park

Dividend Record Date Changes Already in Progress in Korea: Trading Ramifications

We currently see more swift and active progress in changing dividend record dates, signaling a shift in dividend arbitrage trading patterns and...

Sanghyun Park

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)