Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

Posco International Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we review Warren Buffett's stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. </li>
<li>The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in <strong>higher commodities prices.</strong> This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including <strong>Japanese and Korean trading companies.</strong>
</li>
<li><strong>We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. </strong></li>
</ul>


In this insight, we review Warren Buffett's stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. 
The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in higher commodities prices. This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including Japanese and Korean trading companies.

We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. 


Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Itochu today announced a buyback program to buy US$500mm+ in the next 10 weeks. </li>
<li>Net income growth, a rising dividend, and balanced risk book help it perform with low beta and medium correlation to peers. </li>
<li>The low volatility-relative multiple is supportive, and the buyback helps, but style bias vs Peers matters more. </li>
</ul>


Itochu today announced a buyback program to buy US$500mm+ in the next 10 weeks. 
Net income growth, a rising dividend, and balanced risk book help it perform with low beta and medium correlation to peers. 
The low volatility-relative multiple is supportive, and the buyback helps, but style bias vs Peers matters more. 


Short-Term Itochu Buyback - A Cushion, But Style Bias Matters More

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>What’s Original?</h3>
<p>In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.</p>

What’s Original?
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/phc-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34198:1" rel="noopener">PHC Holdings (6523 JP)</a> is a leading diversified diagnostic, life sciences and medical device company serving global markets. PHC shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> (owns 48.0% of PHC), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> (21.1%), Life Science Institute (13.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a> (11.3%).</p></div><div><p>At the indicative price of JPY3,700 per share, PHC will have a market cap of JPY452 billion (US$4.1 billion). PHC plans to raise JPY172 billion ($1.57 billion) by offering 5.8 million primary shares (JPY22 billion raise) and 40.7 million secondary shares (JPY150 billion raise). </p></div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/phc-holdings-ipo-initiation-sugar-high" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57915" rel="noopener">PHC Holdings IPO Initiation: Sugar High</a>, we opined that at first glance, PHC offers solid growth, stable and healthy margins along with solid cash generation. However, on an organic basis, the revenue has declined in each of the last two financial years. The strong growth in the recent first quarter was largely due to low comps and an unsustainable revenue boost from COVID-19 related products. We concluded that PHC’s fundamentals are mixed and we are inclined to watch this IPO from the sidelines.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that PHC is fully valued at the indicative price. In combination with the mixed fundamentals, we would pass on the IPO. </p></div>
</div></div>

PHC Holdings (6523 JP) is a leading diversified diagnostic, life sciences and medical device company serving global markets. PHC shareholders include KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) (owns 48.0% of PHC), Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) (21.1%), Life Science Institute (13.2%) and Panasonic Corp (6752 JP) (11.3%).At the indicative price of JPY3,700 per share, PHC will have a market cap of JPY452 billion (US$4.1 billion). PHC plans to raise JPY172 billion ($1.57 billion) by offering 5.8 million primary shares (JPY22 billion raise) and 40.7 million secondary shares (JPY150 billion raise). 
In PHC Holdings IPO Initiation: Sugar High, we opined that at first glance, PHC offers solid growth, stable and healthy margins along with solid cash generation. However, on an organic basis, the revenue has declined in each of the last two financial years. The strong growth in the recent first quarter was largely due to low comps and an unsustainable revenue boost from COVID-19 related products. We concluded that PHC’s fundamentals are mixed and we are inclined to watch this IPO from the sidelines.
Our valuation analysis suggests that PHC is fully valued at the indicative price. In combination with the mixed fundamentals, we would pass on the IPO. 


Japan

Sumitomo Corp is a general trading company.  The Company imports and exports a wide variety of goods such as metals, machinery, chemicals, fuel,food products, and textiles.  Sumitomo also operates real estate, construction, shipping, insurance, finance, and leasing businesses.

Marubeni Corporation is a trading company with business divisions in iron & steel, information technology, utility & infrastructure, energy, food, metals & mineral resources, development & construction, and chemicals.  The Company markets its products globally through a network of sales offices and representative firms.

TOYOTA TSUSHO CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Group, is a trading company. The Company markets automobiles, trucks, steel products, industrial machinery, chemical products, and energy in both domestic and overseas markets.  Toyota Tsusho primarily exports Toyota cars to Southeast Asia, China, the Middle East, and Latin America.

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. mainly sells machine tools, engine parts, and factory consumable goods on the web site.

Sojitz Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business divisions such as Machinery & Aerospace, Energy & Mineral Resources, Chemicals & Plastics, Real Estate Development & Forest Products, Consumer Lifestyle Business, and New Business Development Group.  Sojitz was formed through the business integration between Nichimen and Nissho Iwai.

MISUMI Group Inc. distributes precision machinery parts by mail order. The products include a variety of components such as press die, plastic mold, automated machinery, pc & network, and wiring.  The Company also sells supplies for factories, hospitals, and restaurants and semi-conductors by mail order.

IWATANI CORPORATION is a trading company supplying gases for industrial and household use.  The Company also handles fuel, consumer products, industrial materials, minerals, construction, agriculture, and medical products.  Iwatani produces liquid hydrogen with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

NAGASE & COMPANY, LTD. is a trading firm specializing in chemical products such as dyestuff, synthetic resins and rubber, and inorganic and organic chemicals.  The Company also handles electronics such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment and liquid crystal display (LCD) materials, as well as health care products such as cosmetics and medical equipment.

Adani Enterprises Limited is an international trading house that operates from offices in India as well as other countries. The Company is involved in coal mining, cargo handling and power generation.  Adani also trades in a large number of products including textiles, energy, metals and agricultural products.

United Rentals, Inc., through its subsidiary, is an equipment rental company operating a network of locations in the United States and Canada.  The Company serves the construction industry, industrial and commercial concerns, homeowners, and other individuals.

Fastenal Company sell industrial and construction supplies in a wholesale and retail fashion.  The Company markets its products and services throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Singapore, China, and The Netherlands.

Watsco, Inc. distributes air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, as well as related parts and supplies.  The Company operates various locations in the United States, with primary markets in the Sunbelt.

W.W. Grainger, Inc. distributes maintenance, repair and operating supplies, and related information to the commercial, industrial, contractor, and institutional markets in North America.  The Company's products include motors, HVAC equipment, lighting, hand and power tools, pumps, and electrical equipment.

Ashtead Group Plc is an international equipment rental company servicing customers nationwide in the US and the UK. The Company rents construction and industrial equipment. Ashtead generates approximately 85% of its revenue in the US through its subsidiary, Sunbelt Rentals with 388 locations across the US. The Group's UK business, A-Plant, has 106 locations nationwide.

Bunzl plc is a distribution group supplying a range of non-food consumable products for customers to operate their businesses but which they do not actually sell. The Company partners with both suppliers and customers in providing outsourcing solutions and service oriented distribution. Bunzl's main customer markets include grocery, foodservice, cleaning and safety.

AerCap Holdings NV is the world's largest aircraft leasing firm by fleet value, and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (AER). It has its headquarters in Dublin with offices in Amsterdam, Los Angeles, Shannon, Fort Lauderdale, Singapore, Shanghai, Abu Dhabi, Seattle and Toulouse.

Ferguson PLC distributes HVAC and industrial supplies. The Company offers products for heating and ventilation, fabrication, facilities supply, and residential construction. Ferguson serves customers in North America.

Ashtead Group plc operates as an international equipment rental company. The Company rents construction and industrial equipment. Ashtead Group serves customers in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada.

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

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Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

We would focus on GS Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could...

Douglas Kim

Short-Term Itochu Buyback - A Cushion, But Style Bias Matters More

Itochu has announced a buyback to execute in the next 10 weeks. It is a decent part of ADV but not overwhelming. It should support the stock vs...

Travis Lundy

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these...

Mio Kato

PHC Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that PHC is fully valued at the indicative price. In combination with the mixed fundamentals, we would pass on the...

Arun George

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