Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piedmont-lithium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37086:1" rel="noopener">Piedmont Lithium (PLL US)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close on 21 June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and in a one-way trade of US$28m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-americas-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23860:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Americas (LAC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36776:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Lithium (SGML)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) and Piedmont Lithium (PLL US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 21 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and in a one-way trade of US$28m.
The largest inflows will be in Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US), Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU), Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US), Lithium Americas (LAC US) and Sigma Lithium (SGML).


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week; although a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials Corp (MP US)</a>tie-in (again) rumoured.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdcx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34187:1" rel="noopener">TDCX (TDCX US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week; although a Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) / MP Materials Corp (MP US)tie-in (again) rumoured.
Key updates took place on: Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Tietto Minerals (TIE AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric (6967 JP), TDCX (TDCX US), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Lynas, Tietto Minerals, JSR, Shinko Electric, TDCX

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> is the proverbial Aussie battler. Post the 2018 general elections, the new Malaysian government put Lynas on notice it may halt it rare-earth operations. </li>
<li>Since then, Lynas’ Malaysian facility, which cuts into China’s near-monopoly on processing elements for defense/aerospace/EV/electronics industries, has (mostly) operated without substantial disruptions. Profit peaked in FY22; but has since rolled-over.</li>
<li>Gina Rhinehart's Hancock has now disclosed a 5.82% stake in Lynas; having disclosed a 5.3% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> earlier this month. Lynas confirmed discussions with MPM in February.</li>
</ul>



Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is the proverbial Aussie battler. Post the 2018 general elections, the new Malaysian government put Lynas on notice it may halt it rare-earth operations. 
Since then, Lynas’ Malaysian facility, which cuts into China’s near-monopoly on processing elements for defense/aerospace/EV/electronics industries, has (mostly) operated without substantial disruptions. Profit peaked in FY22; but has since rolled-over.
Gina Rhinehart's Hancock has now disclosed a 5.82% stake in Lynas; having disclosed a 5.3% stake in MP Materials (MP US) earlier this month. Lynas confirmed discussions with MPM in February.


Lynas (LYC AU): Gina's Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains. </li>
<li>The situation is also re-emphasising the spotlight on the future role of nuclear energy in the power grids. </li>
<li>Uranium prices are up 44% since the invasion began, with the price for nuclear fuel at a decade high.</li>
</ul>


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains. 
The situation is also re-emphasising the spotlight on the future role of nuclear energy in the power grids. 
Uranium prices are up 44% since the invasion began, with the price for nuclear fuel at a decade high.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Australia

Lynas Corporation Limited explores and mines for rare earth minerals such as cerium and neodymium.

Price Gauge
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Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Core Lithium and Piedmont Lithium will be deleted from the index in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a 1-way trade of US$28m....

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Lynas, Tietto Minerals, JSR, Shinko Electric, TDCX

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU): Gina's Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

Strong government and shareholder support. Confirmation of talks with key player. New facility fully operational. This looks worth dipping your toe...

David Blennerhassett

Uranium: Fuelling Fears

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains....

David Blennerhassett

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Core Lithium and Piedmont Lithium will be deleted from the index in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a 1-way trade of US$28m....

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Lynas, Tietto Minerals, JSR, Shinko Electric, TDCX

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU): Gina's Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

Strong government and shareholder support. Confirmation of talks with key player. New facility fully operational. This looks worth dipping your toe...

David Blennerhassett

Uranium: Fuelling Fears

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing the US and European administrations to wrestle with the vulnerabilities in their uranium supply chains....

David Blennerhassett

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes