Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.</li>
<li>It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.</li>
<li>I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…</li>
</ul>


The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.
It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.
I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…


Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

September Domestic and JV Sales Overview: In September, the wholesale volume of local-made passenger vehicles hit 2.3 m units. Retail, wholesale, and production volumes grew 1%, 4%, and 5% year-over-year, respectively.  Growth rates missed industry expectations. SUVs accounted for 41.8% of the total domestic and JV passenger vehicle sales in September, which was similar to 42.0% in Aug.Overall JV brands outperformed domestic brands.  Even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/127" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1">Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK)</a> , the top…

September Domestic and JV Sales Overview: In September, the wholesale volume of local-made passenger vehicles hit 2.3 m units. Retail, wholesale, and production volumes grew 1%, 4%, and 5% year-over-year, respectively.  Growth rates missed industry expectations. SUVs accounted for 41.8% of the total domestic and JV passenger vehicle sales in September, which was similar to 42.0% in Aug.Overall JV brands outperformed domestic brands.  Even Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK) , the top…

China Auto Market -Retail Sales, Wholesale & Production Growth Rates All Decelerated in September

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

We like the Tapex IPO and recommend investors to take the deal. The company has a solid niche in the rechargeable battery, semiconductor, and F&amp;B purpose tapes in Korea. The company has a long-term goal to generate 500 billion won in revenue by 2025, up from 113 billion won in 2015. We believe that the company could generate 129.7 billion won in revenue with a 7.6% net margins resulting in a net profit of 9.8 billion won in 2018.If we apply a 15x P/E, which is nearly 20% discount to where its…

We like the Tapex IPO and recommend investors to take the deal. The company has a solid niche in the rechargeable battery, semiconductor, and F&amp;B purpose tapes in Korea. The company has a long-term goal to generate 500 billion won in revenue by 2025, up from 113 billion won in 2015. We believe that the company could generate 129.7 billion won in revenue with a 7.6% net margins resulting in a net profit of 9.8 billion won in 2018.If we apply a 15x P/E, which is nearly 20% discount to where its…

Tapex IPO (Valuation Analysis) - A Market Leader in Rechargeable Batteries Tapes

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tesla’s federal tax benefit will start phasing out from 3Q 2018. This would increase the price of a Model 3 by 11% from 3Q 2018, and 27% from 3Q 2019.</li><li>Model S and Model X sales are likely to see a temporary boost on the news of the expiry of the tax benefit, with potential buyers wanting to purchase before the benefit expires. </li></ul><ul><li>Sale of ZEV credits will have a positive USD 4.40 impact on Tesla’s EPS, should Tesla reach their target of 500,000 auto deliveries for 2018.</li></ul><ul><li>The price of a Tesla can be reduced by 33% in China when produced domestically, this might encourage Tesla to start producing in China.</li></ul>

Tesla’s federal tax benefit will start phasing out from 3Q 2018. This would increase the price of a Model 3 by 11% from 3Q 2018, and 27% from 3Q 2019.Model S and Model X sales are likely to see a temporary boost on the news of the expiry of the tax benefit, with potential buyers wanting to purchase before the benefit expires. Sale of ZEV credits will have a positive USD 4.40 impact on Tesla’s EPS, should Tesla reach their target of 500,000 auto deliveries for 2018.The price of a Tesla can be reduced by 33% in China when produced domestically, this might encourage Tesla to start producing in China.

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

It will come as no surprise to many SK readers that the fictionalized dream world of subsidized and policy driven electric vehicles (EV) dominance by sometime like 2030 may be noble but ill-guided. We need only look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1">Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US)</a>forecast versus actual sales.Yes, global EV (BEV and PHEV) sales in 2016 grew some 60%, according to the IEA, though this was down from about 77% in 2015 and 85% in 2014. … A target of 100m EVs in 2030 seems about the best case the dreamers should make…

It will come as no surprise to many SK readers that the fictionalized dream world of subsidized and policy driven electric vehicles (EV) dominance by sometime like 2030 may be noble but ill-guided. We need only look at Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US)forecast versus actual sales.Yes, global EV (BEV and PHEV) sales in 2016 grew some 60%, according to the IEA, though this was down from about 77% in 2015 and 85% in 2014. … A target of 100m EVs in 2030 seems about the best case the dreamers should make…

Warren Calls the EV (& Self-Driving Truck) Hyper Growth Bluff With Old Style Purchase

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to...

Sean Maher

China Auto Market -Retail Sales, Wholesale & Production Growth Rates All Decelerated in September

September Domestic and JV Sales Overview: In September, the wholesale volume of local-made passenger vehicles hit 2.3 m units. Retail, wholesale,...

JL Warren Capital

Tapex IPO (Valuation Analysis) - A Market Leader in Rechargeable Batteries Tapes

We like the Tapex IPO and recommend investors to take the deal. The company has a solid niche in the rechargeable battery, semiconductor, and...

Douglas Kim

Tesla: Living Off Subsidies

Tesla’s federal tax benefit will start phasing out from 3Q 2018. This would increase the price of a Model 3 by 11% from 3Q 2018, and 27% from 3Q...

Supun Walpola

Warren Calls the EV (& Self-Driving Truck) Hyper Growth Bluff With Old Style Purchase

It will come as no surprise to many SK readers that the fictionalized dream world of subsidized and policy driven electric vehicles (EV) dominance...

Charles De Trenck

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