Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI Global Indices on Friday announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P 600 to be implement at the close on 17 December. </li>
<li>There were no surprises and the whole exercise is one of rearranging the deckchairs. Stocks move up an index, or down an index, but nothing moves out of the three.</li>
<li>The proprietary S&amp;P data suggests little opportunity, but empirical data suggests otherwise, and as in most cases, the interesting trades are the smaller ones.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI Global Indices on Friday announced the changes to the S&amp;P500, S&amp;P Midcap 400, and S&amp;P 600 to be implement at the close on 17 December. 
There were no surprises and the whole exercise is one of rearranging the deckchairs. Stocks move up an index, or down an index, but nothing moves out of the three.
The proprietary S&amp;P data suggests little opportunity, but empirical data suggests otherwise, and as in most cases, the interesting trades are the smaller ones.


S&P500 Rebalance for December 2021 - Rearranging the Deckchairs

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210903-1443045/1443045_sept2021-546-shuf-rebal.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a> </li>
</ul>Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... <ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a></li>
</ul>Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.<div class="content-highlight">
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
</div>While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold.

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the announcement from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...

Match Group Inc (MTCH US) 

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) 

Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US) 
Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... 

Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) 

Unum Group (UNM US) 
National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)
Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold. 

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance:  3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Geely’s revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24.</li>
<li>The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 58% and a price target of HK$22 for the end of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Geely’s revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24.
The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23.
We conclude an upside of 58% and a price target of HK$22 for the end of 2025.


Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)</li>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）</li>
<li>ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)
1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）
ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

S&P500 Rebalance for December 2021 - Rearranging the Deckchairs

The S&P announced its changes to the S&P500, S&P Midcap 400, and S&P Small 600 Indices. All names moving in and out of these indices are coming...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance: 3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

The S&P500 Quarterly Review is here. 3 in and 3 out. $14bn a side as of now. I expect the DELETIONS are more interesting though the headlines will...

Travis Lundy

Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)

Revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24. The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23. We conclude...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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S&P500 Rebalance for December 2021 - Rearranging the Deckchairs

The S&P announced its changes to the S&P500, S&P Midcap 400, and S&P Small 600 Indices. All names moving in and out of these indices are coming...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance: 3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

The S&P500 Quarterly Review is here. 3 in and 3 out. $14bn a side as of now. I expect the DELETIONS are more interesting though the headlines will...

Travis Lundy

Geely (175 HK): 3Q24, Revenue up by 20% and Operating Profit up by 129% (2nd Largest in China)

Revenue grew by 20% YoY and deliveries increased by 19% YoY in 3Q24. The operating margin improved to 5.3% in 3Q24 versus 2.9% in 3Q23. We conclude...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

​Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...