Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/375/original/tesla%20GA4%20tent%20%20%20%20source%20%20%20Stephen%20Lam%20Reuters.jpg?1563394610" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93375"></figure><div class="content-caption">Tesla GA4 tent. Stephen Lam/Reuters</div>CNBC filed a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/tesla-workers-in-ga4-tent-describe-pressure-to-make-model-3-goals.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scathing report</a> this week detailing serious problems at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> GA4 tent, a supposedly temporary solution set up in the parking lot last year to ease Model 3 production constraints at the company's primary manufacturing plant in Fremont, California.Even more troubling, as I long have warned, is that the problems CNBC uncovered really aren't new. Tesla's troubles also are no longer about being a quirky start-up still figuring things out as it goes. This is a $45 billion company now more than sixteen years old and more than a year into full-scale production capability for all of its models that it's expanding across the globe.Tesla denies CNBC's findings, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tesla-workers-took-shortcuts-used-electrical-tape-model-3-goals-2019-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">telling Business Insider</a> they are “misleading” and that it has “dedicated teams” that “track every car throughout every shop in the assembly line.”<blockquote>“In order to ensure the highest quality, we review every vehicle for even the smallest refinement before it leaves the factory. Dedicated inspection teams track every car throughout every shop in the assembly line, and every vehicle is then subjected to an additional quality control process towards the end of line. And all of this happens before a vehicle leaves the factory and is delivered to a customer. This applies to all areas of the factory, including our operations at GA4, and it’s why Tesla is able to build the safest and best-performing cars available today,'' the company said in a statement."</blockquote>Gee, who should we believe? If only there was mounting evidence from multiple sources showing Tesla has a long history of serious and escalating problems with its working conditions, plant safety, quality controls, and management oversight which already have cost the company millions of dollars in fines and settlements and yet no signs of being convincingly resolved.Hint: there is. Lots, as I've been warning since last year.Read on for Bond Angle analysis.

Tesla GA4 tent. Stephen Lam/ReutersCNBC filed a scathing report this week detailing serious problems at the Tesla Motors (TSLA US) GA4 tent, a supposedly temporary solution set up in the parking lot last year to ease Model 3 production constraints at the company's primary manufacturing plant in Fremont, California.Even more troubling, as I long have warned, is that the problems CNBC uncovered really aren't new. Tesla's troubles also are no longer about being a quirky start-up still figuring things out as it goes. This is a $45 billion company now more than sixteen years old and more than a year into full-scale production capability for all of its models that it's expanding across the globe.Tesla denies CNBC's findings, telling Business Insider they are “misleading” and that it has “dedicated teams” that “track every car throughout every shop in the assembly line.”“In order to ensure the highest quality, we review every vehicle for even the smallest refinement before it leaves the factory. Dedicated inspection teams track every car throughout every shop in the assembly line, and every vehicle is then subjected to an additional quality control process towards the end of line. And all of this happens before a vehicle leaves the factory and is delivered to a customer. This applies to all areas of the factory, including our operations at GA4, and it’s why Tesla is able to build the safest and best-performing cars available today,'' the company said in a statement."Gee, who should we believe? If only there was mounting evidence from multiple sources showing Tesla has a long history of serious and escalating problems with its working conditions, plant safety, quality controls, and management oversight which already have cost the company millions of dollars in fines and settlements and yet no signs of being convincingly resolved.Hint: there is. Lots, as I've been warning since last year.Read on for Bond Angle analysis.

The Trouble With Tesla's Arrested Development

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A prolonged decline in new car sales obviously hurts China’s manufacturing sector and is a drag on GDP growth. But the data above does not imply a hard landing in overall discretionary consumption.  In fact, we are seeing a structural shift to used car purchases which has cannibalized demand for new cars.  Consumers are spending on cars, just all new cars.)

A prolonged decline in new car sales obviously hurts China’s manufacturing sector and is a drag on GDP growth. But the data above does not imply a hard landing in overall discretionary consumption.  In fact, we are seeing a structural shift to used car purchases which has cannibalized demand for new cars.  Consumers are spending on cars, just all new cars.)

China Auto Market H1 Review- Decoupling of Auto Sales and Consumer Discretionary Consumption

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proterra-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28185:1" rel="noopener">Proterra Inc (4121096Z US)</a>, run by former Tesla employee Mr. Ryan Popple, seems to be preparing to go public. However, in media interviews, Popple declined to disclose the date of Proterra’s IPO . In an interview with Blomberg early last month (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6mmf6ixBNE" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Proterra CEO Brings Tesla Lessons to the Electric Bus Business</a>), Popple stated that it would  go public, but would wait for the right time to do so. Although the company’s intention of going public still remains at the stage of hiring bankers to process its IPO application, we looked into the company, its business model, and growth prospects, to understand if an IPO would be a good move for the company. We feel that Proterra, being run by a former employee of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>, would be aware of the Dos and Don’ts as an EV maker, and as such, is likely to make good progress in its business field. For now, we feel that:
- The company is innovative, with an interesting business model and product that appears ready to face competition in the market
- Proterra has the capability to execute its growth plans given the backing from strong players like GM and Daimler
- Electrification of buses makes more sense, given the (usually) fixed routes of operation for buses, which in turn makes development of charging solutions (which are the main barriers for the widespread use of EVs) a lot simpler. E-bus as a concept is likely to be more successful and the currently low market adoption rates presents a strong growth opportunity to players like Proterra.  
- However, the timeline of adoption of its product remains a key risk.
We go through the details below.

Proterra Inc (4121096Z US), run by former Tesla employee Mr. Ryan Popple, seems to be preparing to go public. However, in media interviews, Popple declined to disclose the date of Proterra’s IPO . In an interview with Blomberg early last month (Proterra CEO Brings Tesla Lessons to the Electric Bus Business), Popple stated that it would  go public, but would wait for the right time to do so. Although the company’s intention of going public still remains at the stage of hiring bankers to process its IPO application, we looked into the company, its business model, and growth prospects, to understand if an IPO would be a good move for the company. We feel that Proterra, being run by a former employee of Tesla Motors (TSLA US), would be aware of the Dos and Don’ts as an EV maker, and as such, is likely to make good progress in its business field. For now, we feel that:
- The company is innovative, with an interesting business model and product that appears ready to face competition in the market
- Proterra has the capability to execute its growth plans given the backing from strong players like GM and Daimler
- Electrification of buses makes more sense, given the (usually) fixed routes of operation for buses, which in turn makes development of charging solutions (which are the main barriers for the widespread use of EVs) a lot simpler. E-bus as a concept is likely to be more successful and the currently low market adoption rates presents a strong growth opportunity to players like Proterra.  
- However, the timeline of adoption of its product remains a key risk.
We go through the details below.

Proterra: The Tesla of Buses Hires Banks to File for an IPO

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> reported a record 95,200 deliveries for the second quarter in its preliminary report out last Tuesday, topping reduced market estimates. Year-to-date results surged to 158,219, but this still was far short of 180,000-200,000 where Tesla should be averaging on its way to its projected 360,000-400,000 for the year.Also interesting, as I <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tesla-reports-record-deliveries-and-drops-guidance-vicki-bryan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commented</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-when-a-spartin-diet-2-billion-isn-t-enough" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tuesday</a>, was that Tesla did not affirm guidance for the year as it had done even after reporting <a href="https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disastrous first quarter results</a> last April which had tracked well below the company's forecast as well as market expectations. Tesla then had notably assured investors that cash on hand remained "sufficient" even as it admitted the stunning drop in deliveries plus severe price cuts had "negatively impacted" first-quarter net income.Those proved to be glaring understatements. Tesla reported a<a href="https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">jarring first-quarter loss of $702 million</a>and cash at less than $2.2 billion--down 40% versus the fourth quarter and the lowest since March 2016.So it's troubling that Tesla generated record deliveries in the second quarter and yet didn't see fit to update its expectations for annual deliveries or its forecast to generate positive free cash flow and "significantly reduce our loss in Q2." Considering Tesla typically is happy to crow when it has good news to report, this doesn't bode well for full second-quarter results which the company is expected to report in late July or early August.Read on for Bond Angle analysis.

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) reported a record 95,200 deliveries for the second quarter in its preliminary report out last Tuesday, topping reduced market estimates. Year-to-date results surged to 158,219, but this still was far short of 180,000-200,000 where Tesla should be averaging on its way to its projected 360,000-400,000 for the year.Also interesting, as I commentedTuesday, was that Tesla did not affirm guidance for the year as it had done even after reporting disastrous first quarter results last April which had tracked well below the company's forecast as well as market expectations. Tesla then had notably assured investors that cash on hand remained "sufficient" even as it admitted the stunning drop in deliveries plus severe price cuts had "negatively impacted" first-quarter net income.Those proved to be glaring understatements. Tesla reported ajarring first-quarter loss of $702 millionand cash at less than $2.2 billion--down 40% versus the fourth quarter and the lowest since March 2016.So it's troubling that Tesla generated record deliveries in the second quarter and yet didn't see fit to update its expectations for annual deliveries or its forecast to generate positive free cash flow and "significantly reduce our loss in Q2." Considering Tesla typically is happy to crow when it has good news to report, this doesn't bode well for full second-quarter results which the company is expected to report in late July or early August.Read on for Bond Angle analysis.

Tesla Q2 Deliveries Beat; Demand and Profit Trends Less Clear

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2>
<ul>
<li>Talking again after Trump delays further tariffs</li>
<li>Despite reprieve, Huawei vows to end US dependence </li>
<li>Take control – for a hefty premium</li>
<li>Robotaxis – hail one this year?</li>
<li>Violent protests challenge Beijing rule </li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
</div>

China News That Matters

Talking again after Trump delays further tariffs
Despite reprieve, Huawei vows to end US dependence 
Take control – for a hefty premium
Robotaxis – hail one this year?
Violent protests challenge Beijing rule 


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Trade Truce/Tech War/Market Opening/NEVs /Hong Kong

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

The Trouble With Tesla's Arrested Development

CNBC filed a scathing report this week detailing serious problems at the Tesla Motors (TSLA US) GA4 tent, a supposedly temporary solution set up in...

Vicki Bryan

China Auto Market H1 Review- Decoupling of Auto Sales and Consumer Discretionary Consumption

A prolonged decline in new car sales obviously hurts China’s manufacturing sector and is a drag on GDP growth. But the data above does not imply a...

JL Warren Capital

Proterra: The Tesla of Buses Hires Banks to File for an IPO

Proterra Inc (4121096Z US), run by former Tesla employee Mr. Ryan Popple, seems to be preparing to go public. However, in media interviews, Popple...

Aqila Ali

Tesla Q2 Deliveries Beat; Demand and Profit Trends Less Clear

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) reported a record 95,200 deliveries for the second quarter in its preliminary report out last Tuesday, topping reduced...

Vicki Bryan

Trade Truce/Tech War/Market Opening/NEVs /Hong Kong

China News That Matters Talking again after Trump delays further tariffs Despite reprieve, Huawei vows to end US dependence Take control – for a...

Diana Choyleva

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