Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

<ul>
<li>The Cho brothers are currently sparring over control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>, and in turn, its 30.7% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-tire-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20031:1" rel="noopener">Hankook Tire (161390 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>After the honorary chairman of Hankook backed the younger son (&amp; chairman of Hankook), PE-outfit MBK, aligned with the elder son, bumped its public tender Offer by 20% to ₩24,000/share.</li>
<li>Hankook is currently trading 27.3% adrift of the revised terms. That pretty much sums up the situation. The public tender closes on December 25. However, December 23-25 are holidays.</li>
</ul>


The Cho brothers are currently sparring over control of Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS), and in turn, its 30.7% stake in Hankook Tire (161390 KS).
After the honorary chairman of Hankook backed the younger son (&amp; chairman of Hankook), PE-outfit MBK, aligned with the elder son, bumped its public tender Offer by 20% to ₩24,000/share.
Hankook is currently trading 27.3% adrift of the revised terms. That pretty much sums up the situation. The public tender closes on December 25. However, December 23-25 are holidays.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>MBK Partners has increased its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a> partial tender offer to KRW24,000 per share, 20.0% and 51.4% above its previous offer and the last close, respectively.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive, we estimate that the minimum acceptance condition of 19.3 million shares (20.35% of outstanding shares) requires an 84.3% minority acceptance rate. </li>
<li>The minority acceptance rate is challenging unless MBK can secure a ruling preventing share purchases from Cho Yang-rai, who disclosed a 2.72% stake on 14 December and opposes the tender. </li>
</ul>


MBK Partners has increased its Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS) partial tender offer to KRW24,000 per share, 20.0% and 51.4% above its previous offer and the last close, respectively.
While the offer is attractive, we estimate that the minimum acceptance condition of 19.3 million shares (20.35% of outstanding shares) requires an 84.3% minority acceptance rate. 
The minority acceptance rate is challenging unless MBK can secure a ruling preventing share purchases from Cho Yang-rai, who disclosed a 2.72% stake on 14 December and opposes the tender. 


Hankook & Company (000240 KS): MBK Raises Partial Offer to KRW24,000

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Cho Hyun-Sik has joined hands with MBK Partners to make a tender offer for shares of Hankook &amp; Co for a minimum of 20.35% and maximum of 27.32% stake.</li>
<li>The tender offer price is 20,000 won which is 18.9% higher than the closing price of 16,820 won on Monday.</li>
<li>Chairman Cho Hyun-Bum may try to find a strategic ally to launch his own tender offer of Hankook &amp; Co shares at even higher tender offer price than 20,000 won.</li>
</ul>


Cho Hyun-Sik has joined hands with MBK Partners to make a tender offer for shares of Hankook &amp; Co for a minimum of 20.35% and maximum of 27.32% stake.
The tender offer price is 20,000 won which is 18.9% higher than the closing price of 16,820 won on Monday.
Chairman Cho Hyun-Bum may try to find a strategic ally to launch his own tender offer of Hankook &amp; Co shares at even higher tender offer price than 20,000 won.


Elder Brother Cho Hyun-Sik Joins Hands With MBK Partners to Tender Offer Hankook & Co. Shares

South Korea

Hankook Tire & Technology Co. Ltd. develops and manufactures radial tires for passenger cars, light trucks, trucks, and buses.  The Company also produces batteries and aluminum alloy wheels and operates real estate business.

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Hankook Tire & Technology (161390 KS)

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Hankook's Bothersome Brothers

This partial tender Offer looks dead in the water. Chances are Hankook further declines whether Chairman Cho, inter alia, continue purchasing...

David Blennerhassett

Hankook & Company (000240 KS): MBK Raises Partial Offer to KRW24,000

While the offer is attractive, the minimum acceptance condition requires an 84% minority acceptance rate - a challenge, particularly if Cho Yang...

Arun George

Elder Brother Cho Hyun-Sik Joins Hands With MBK Partners to Tender Offer Hankook & Co. Shares

Cho Yang-Rae, honorary chairman of Hankook & Co, purchased a 2.72% stake in the company worth 57 billion won. In June 2020, With Cho Yang-Rae's...

Douglas Kim

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