Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-to-widen-interest-rate-target-range-to-support-bank-profits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said <em>"BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" </em>and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. </p><p>What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ <em>"would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."</em></p><p>The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). </p><p>This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/872/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.26.17+PM.png?1616311594" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195872"></figure><p></p></section><p>Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. </p><p>The details are <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/rel210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. The presentation with the basic details is <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p><ul>
<li>The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).</li>
<li>Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.</li>
<li>The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.</li>
</ul><p>It based the new policy on the Reference <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">document</a> which backs up the changes in policy is <em>much</em> more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.</p><p>The hypotheses and results are described here.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/869/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.02.28+PM.png?1616310186" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195869"></figure></section><p>There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </p></div><h3>What This Means</h3><ul>
<li>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).</li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. </li>
</ul><h3>What This Does NOT Mean</h3><ul><li>It does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.</li></ul><hr><p>It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. </p><p>So we do so below the fold.</p><p>Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. </p>

On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an article during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said "BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ "would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. The details are here. The presentation with the basic details is here.
The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).
Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.
The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.
It based the new policy on the Reference document which backs up the changes in policy is much more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.The hypotheses and results are described here.There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  What This Means
When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  
Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).
Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. 
What This Does NOT MeanIt does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. So we do so below the fold.Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. 

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Revenue Guidance Overly Conservative</h2><p>HCM reported its 3QFY21 results on Friday (29th January) which saw both revenues and OP decrease YoY by 4.3% and 30.6% respectively with the deterioration in its profitability mainly due to the impact of lower sales volume in 3QFY21. However, the reported revenue was 1.6% higher than consensus while OP was -23.1% lower.</p><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan="2" style="width: 23.9%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>In ¥m</strong></p></td>
<td colspan="3" style="width: 76.1%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>3QFY21</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Actual Results</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consensus</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Surprise</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 23.9%;"><p>Revenue</p></td>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                             197,825</p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                              194,733</p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: right;">1.6%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 23.9%;"><p>Operating Profit</p></td>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                                  9,749</p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                                 12,675</p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: right;">-23.1%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 23.9%;"><p>OPM</p></td>
<td style="width: 29.8%;"><p style="text-align: right;">4.9%</p></td>
<td style="width: 30.4%;"><p style="text-align: right;">6.5%</p></td>
<td style="width: 15.9%;"><p style="text-align: right;">-1.6% points</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><em>Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</em></div><p>The company has not changed its full year guidance for FY21 and expects revenue and OP of ¥211bn (-13.5% YoY) and ¥21bn (-1% YoY, implying an OPM of 10.4%) respectively in 4QFY21.</p><p>HCM's revenue expectation for 4QFY21 is 9.0% lower than consensus while OP is 6% higher than consensus implying an OPM of 10.3%.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p><strong>In ¥m</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Expected 4QFY21</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Guidance – FY21</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p>Net sales</p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                             211,273</p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                              770,000</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p>Operating income</p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                               21,702</p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: right;">                                 40,000</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 29.1%;"><p>OPM</p></td>
<td style="width: 34.96%;"><p style="text-align: right;">10.3%</p></td>
<td style="width: 35.94%;"><p style="text-align: right;">5.2%</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><em>Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</em></div>

Revenue Guidance Overly ConservativeHCM reported its 3QFY21 results on Friday (29th January) which saw both revenues and OP decrease YoY by 4.3% and 30.6% respectively with the deterioration in its profitability mainly due to the impact of lower sales volume in 3QFY21. However, the reported revenue was 1.6% higher than consensus while OP was -23.1% lower.

In ¥m
3QFY21


Actual Results
Consensus
Surprise


Revenue
                             197,825
                              194,733
1.6%


Operating Profit
                                  9,749
                                 12,675
-23.1%


OPM
4.9%
6.5%
-1.6% points

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQThe company has not changed its full year guidance for FY21 and expects revenue and OP of ¥211bn (-13.5% YoY) and ¥21bn (-1% YoY, implying an OPM of 10.4%) respectively in 4QFY21.HCM's revenue expectation for 4QFY21 is 9.0% lower than consensus while OP is 6% higher than consensus implying an OPM of 10.3%.

In ¥m
Expected 4QFY21
Guidance – FY21


Net sales
                             211,273
                              770,000


Operating income
                               21,702
                                 40,000


OPM
10.3%
5.2%

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• 'WORST' &amp; BEST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &amp; Revisions Score. Therefore, the 'worst' side of our daily pair is a company where earnings momentum has already peaked out, and the upward revision to full-year earnings is below the trailing result - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo (3635 JP)</a>. Conversely, the company with the largest undiscounted 'surprise' is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macnica-fuji-electronics-hol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26074:1" rel="noopener">Macnica Fuji Electronics (3132 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/502/original/2021-01-26_06-07-10.png?1611608842" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184502"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/504/original/2021-01-26_06-12-39.png?1611609171" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184504"></figure></section><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• 'WORST' &amp; BEST •All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &amp; Revisions Score. Therefore, the 'worst' side of our daily pair is a company where earnings momentum has already peaked out, and the upward revision to full-year earnings is below the trailing result - Koei Tecmo (3635 JP). Conversely, the company with the largest undiscounted 'surprise' is Macnica Fuji Electronics (3132 JP).  Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In the first week of 2021, TMI's machinery sentiment indicators hit their highest levels since pre-pandemic readings, attributed to recent bullish commentary from the likes of Sany Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion and the CCMA (China Construction Machinery Association); the indicators have been strongly correlated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caterpillar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:697:1" rel="noopener">Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) </a> with a slight lead</li>
<li>On Friday, Komatsu reported Komtrax equipment utilization data for December, highlighting sharply stronger average hours of machinery use Y/Y comps in key jurisdictions</li>
<li>The CCMA recently pointed out that Chinese OEMs expect 2021 demand to range from high single-digits to 15% Y/Y while the association expects a range of 8-10% supported by continued robust infrastructure FAI</li>
<li>Komatsu's European data indicates potential positive surprise with a second month of +4% Y/Y growth, despite weaker EU Construction PMI readings throughout Q4</li>
<li>US data also highlights a first positive utilization comp in over a year, despite still-tentative construction spending data and slippage in the ABI index</li>
<li>Japanese machinery utilization also bounced back in December to its best Y/Y comp in more than a year, with elevated public sector construction in progress and a potential inflection in housing starts</li>
<li>Given such a robust starting point for 2021, markets are more likely to look through seasonal air pockets going into Spring</li>
</ul>


In the first week of 2021, TMI's machinery sentiment indicators hit their highest levels since pre-pandemic readings, attributed to recent bullish commentary from the likes of Sany Heavy, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion and the CCMA (China Construction Machinery Association); the indicators have been strongly correlated with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) , Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP) &amp; Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)  with a slight lead
On Friday, Komatsu reported Komtrax equipment utilization data for December, highlighting sharply stronger average hours of machinery use Y/Y comps in key jurisdictions
The CCMA recently pointed out that Chinese OEMs expect 2021 demand to range from high single-digits to 15% Y/Y while the association expects a range of 8-10% supported by continued robust infrastructure FAI
Komatsu's European data indicates potential positive surprise with a second month of +4% Y/Y growth, despite weaker EU Construction PMI readings throughout Q4
US data also highlights a first positive utilization comp in over a year, despite still-tentative construction spending data and slippage in the ABI index
Japanese machinery utilization also bounced back in December to its best Y/Y comp in more than a year, with elevated public sector construction in progress and a potential inflection in housing starts
Given such a robust starting point for 2021, markets are more likely to look through seasonal air pockets going into Spring


TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

<p>When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.</p>

When the surprise news that Hitachi was looking to sell down its stake in HCM broke, Hitachi Metals also fell 6.2% on the news. We said at the time that we believed Hitachi Metals was likely to be sold to an acquirer rather than just deconsolidated and the Nikkei has reported that both Bain and KKR are interested in the company. This is positive for the stock in our view, even more so than interest from a strategic acquirer as we believe it opens up various options.

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

Japan

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

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Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

The BOJ has announced a change in ETF Buying Program Parameters. The study/review they did is required reading to understand how they might buy...

Travis Lundy

HCM - Favour HCM over Komatsu for Now

HCM's guidance looks conservative on the revenue line though margins have been disappointing. However, there are signs of underlying improvement...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec

All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &...

Campbell Gunn

TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

TMI's Machinery Sentiment Indicators are now back to pre-pandemic levels, while Komatsu's Friday release of Komtrax machinery utilization hours...

Elan Gore

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

We believe the rumoured sales of Hitachi Metals to a PE fund such as Bain or KKR could unlock value within the company. The question is how large...

Mio Kato

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Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

The BOJ has announced a change in ETF Buying Program Parameters. The study/review they did is required reading to understand how they might buy...

Travis Lundy

HCM - Favour HCM over Komatsu for Now

HCM's guidance looks conservative on the revenue line though margins have been disappointing. However, there are signs of underlying improvement...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec

All the large-caps that announced results or forecasts yesterday had positive scores, and none saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in Results &...

Campbell Gunn

TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment at Pre-COVID High as Komtrax Data Shows Synchronized Global Surge

TMI's Machinery Sentiment Indicators are now back to pre-pandemic levels, while Komatsu's Friday release of Komtrax machinery utilization hours...

Elan Gore

Hitachi Metals – Acquisition by a PE Fund Could Unlock Value

We believe the rumoured sales of Hitachi Metals to a PE fund such as Bain or KKR could unlock value within the company. The question is how large...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/25 - Koei-Tecmo & Nidec