Corporate Credit Analyst

Alan Greene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.<div class="content-highlight">We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. </div>An…

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. An…

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Proper understanding of SDS DilemmaFirst and Foremost, what we have to remind ourselves is this very important fact: Vice Chairman Lee and his two sisters still own 17 percent in SDS. Not only that, SDS business is largely dependent on Samsung affiliates. In other words, SDS is only few of the assets (along with Samsung Engineering) that Lee family can easily leverage for facilitating ownership transfer. How would Lee family use SDS? This certainly remains to be seen. But regardless of what they…

Proper understanding of SDS DilemmaFirst and Foremost, what we have to remind ourselves is this very important fact: Vice Chairman Lee and his two sisters still own 17 percent in SDS. Not only that, SDS business is largely dependent on Samsung affiliates. In other words, SDS is only few of the assets (along with Samsung Engineering) that Lee family can easily leverage for facilitating ownership transfer. How would Lee family use SDS? This certainly remains to be seen. But regardless of what they…

Samsung Still Keeps an Eye on Korea's Medicare Privatization for Samsung Life and SDS

Several Korean newspapers reported yesterday that Samsung’s Jae-yong Lee is scheduled to have a private meeting with CEO of Hana Financial Group and CEO of KB Financial Group later this month. Lee already had a meeting with CEO of Woori Financial Group and CEO of Shinhan Financial Group. These newspapers reported that the reason for Lee’s meeting with the nation’s four big financial groups might imply that Samsung may create a financial holding company (centered around Samsung Life Insurance)…

Several Korean newspapers reported yesterday that Samsung’s Jae-yong Lee is scheduled to have a private meeting with CEO of Hana Financial Group and CEO of KB Financial Group later this month. Lee already had a meeting with CEO of Woori Financial Group and CEO of Shinhan Financial Group. These newspapers reported that the reason for Lee’s meeting with the nation’s four big financial groups might imply that Samsung may create a financial holding company (centered around Samsung Life Insurance)…

Samsung's Lee Meets the Heads of Korea's Major Financial Groups: Implications and Future Scenario

Does Samsung still need an amendment to the South Korean holding company law? (Currently, the South Korean holding company law bans any industrial holding company to own a financial company.)It is now clear that Samsung (and Vice Chairman Lee) wants to create a Softbank-type investment specialized company, which will be mainly based on Samsung Life Insurance. That is, he dose not aim to build a financial service company. Instead, he wants to build an investment company that can compete on the…

Does Samsung still need an amendment to the South Korean holding company law? (Currently, the South Korean holding company law bans any industrial holding company to own a financial company.)It is now clear that Samsung (and Vice Chairman Lee) wants to create a Softbank-type investment specialized company, which will be mainly based on Samsung Life Insurance. That is, he dose not aim to build a financial service company. Instead, he wants to build an investment company that can compete on the…

Interesting Development for Samsung Restructuring: Opposition Party Is Now Samsung's Best Supporter?

South Korea

Hankook & Company Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company operates batteries manufacturing, leasing, management consulting, tires production, and other businesses. Hankook provides services worldwide.

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Hankook & Company (000240 KS)

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the...

Alan Greene

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in...

Daniel Tabbush

Samsung Still Keeps an Eye on Korea's Medicare Privatization for Samsung Life and SDS

Proper understanding of SDS DilemmaFirst and Foremost, what we have to remind ourselves is this very important fact: Vice Chairman Lee and his two...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung's Lee Meets the Heads of Korea's Major Financial Groups: Implications and Future Scenario

Several Korean newspapers reported yesterday that Samsung’s Jae-yong Lee is scheduled to have a private meeting with CEO of Hana Financial Group...

Sanghyun Park

Interesting Development for Samsung Restructuring: Opposition Party Is Now Samsung's Best Supporter?

Does Samsung still need an amendment to the South Korean holding company law? (Currently, the South Korean holding company law bans any industrial...

Sanghyun Park

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