IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Alliance Aviation Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has raised concerns about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>. The ACCC’s final decision is on 17 November.</li>
<li>Qantas knew a lengthy ACCC approval process was highly likely and committed to an additional special dividend in the SID to reflect this risk. </li>
<li>Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas securing ACCC approval.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has raised concerns about Qantas Airways (QAN AU) proposed acquisition of Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU). The ACCC’s final decision is on 17 November.
Qantas knew a lengthy ACCC approval process was highly likely and committed to an additional special dividend in the SID to reflect this risk. 
Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas securing ACCC approval.


Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The ETF operator (TIGER)'s index tracking conformity was high enough to create trading opportunities aimed at the rebalancing flow.</li>
<li>Flow/Price directions were mostly synched with only a few exceptions. Of particular importance is that the price impact was substantial compared to the passive flow size. </li>
<li>The yield of the tradable names suitable for a basket based on the projected passive impact size was 4.51%.</li>
</ul>


The ETF operator (TIGER)'s index tracking conformity was high enough to create trading opportunities aimed at the rebalancing flow.
Flow/Price directions were mostly synched with only a few exceptions. Of particular importance is that the price impact was substantial compared to the passive flow size. 
The yield of the tradable names suitable for a basket based on the projected passive impact size was 4.51%.


WISE Theme Indexes Rebalancing: Conformity of Passive Flow to Price Return

<ul>
<li>The KAL event is almost over. But we still have Asiana Airlines. The KDB's Asiana CB conversion should also be considered a foregone conclusion.</li>
<li>Applying the case of KAL, the KDB will likely file conversion when 30 days have elapsed since receiving the repayment notice. For this, the prevailing local consensus is June 10.</li>
<li>Conversion filing on July 8 and listing on July 29 with the 15-day delay rule applied is a likely scenario. Hence, our entry point should be from July 4.</li>
</ul>


The KAL event is almost over. But we still have Asiana Airlines. The KDB's Asiana CB conversion should also be considered a foregone conclusion.
Applying the case of KAL, the KDB will likely file conversion when 30 days have elapsed since receiving the repayment notice. For this, the prevailing local consensus is June 10.
Conversion filing on July 8 and listing on July 29 with the 15-day delay rule applied is a likely scenario. Hence, our entry point should be from July 4.


HMM-Like Dilution Event: Korean Air Is Nearly Done, But Asiana Airlines Gearing Up

<ul>
<li>This ETF's AUM has decreased by 17% over the past three months to ₩200B. It has 18 constituents, and it is unlikely that there will be any addition/deletion.</li>
<li>The first thing to note is Hana Tour because the increase in the number of shares through an offering will be reflected its the market cap right before the rebalancing.</li>
<li>Among the top stocks by market cap, Asiana Airlines (020560 KS) (+0,.20x ADTV) and Kangwon Land (035250 KS) (-0.21x ADTV) will likely have a significant passive impact.</li>
</ul>


This ETF's AUM has decreased by 17% over the past three months to ₩200B. It has 18 constituents, and it is unlikely that there will be any addition/deletion.
The first thing to note is Hana Tour because the increase in the number of shares through an offering will be reflected its the market cap right before the rebalancing.
Among the top stocks by market cap, Asiana Airlines (020560 KS) (+0,.20x ADTV) and Kangwon Land (035250 KS) (-0.21x ADTV) will likely have a significant passive impact.


TIGER Theme ETF "Tour Leisure" Rebalancing Projections: Hanatour, Asiana, Kangwon Land, & T'way Air

<ul>
<li>Korean Air might have already notified the creditors of its early repayment decision. Asiana will likely follow suit, immediately triggering the creditors to exercise the conversion rights.</li>
<li>So, both Korean Air and Asiana's conversion should be a foregone conclusion. There is only uncertainty about how many conversions we will actually see for Asiana from the KDB.</li>
<li>Instead of preemptive position setup at this point, I would consider starting the position build-up within the 2-3 day window from the repayment filing to CB conversion.</li>
</ul>


Korean Air might have already notified the creditors of its early repayment decision. Asiana will likely follow suit, immediately triggering the creditors to exercise the conversion rights.
So, both Korean Air and Asiana's conversion should be a foregone conclusion. There is only uncertainty about how many conversions we will actually see for Asiana from the KDB.
Instead of preemptive position setup at this point, I would consider starting the position build-up within the 2-3 day window from the repayment filing to CB conversion.


Korean Air & Asiana Airlines: Current Status of CB Conversion Event

South Korea

Asiana Airlines, Inc. provides air cargo and passenger transportation services throughout South Korea and overseas.  The Company also offers airline catering and on-flight duty free shopping services and operates aircraft leasing business.

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Asiana Airlines (020560 KS)

Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas...

Arun George

WISE Theme Indexes Rebalancing: Conformity of Passive Flow to Price Return

This post provides the noteworthy points of the passive flow/price impact correlation from yesterday's rebalancing of WISE's three thematic indexes

Sanghyun Park

HMM-Like Dilution Event: Korean Air Is Nearly Done, But Asiana Airlines Gearing Up

This post discusses a likely schedule of Asiana Airlines' CB conversion event, which allows us to capture a trading entry point for an HMM-like...

Sanghyun Park

TIGER Theme ETF "Tour Leisure" Rebalancing Projections: Hanatour, Asiana, Kangwon Land, & T'way Air

This post projects the upcoming rebalancing of the TIGER Theme ETF "Tour Leisure": Hanatour, Asiana, Kangwon Land, & T'way Air.

Sanghyun Park

Korean Air & Asiana Airlines: Current Status of CB Conversion Event

This post investigates the current status of Korean Air and Asiana Airlines' CB conversion event by the creditors: the KDB and the Korea EXIM.

Sanghyun Park

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