Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends declared or paid after today. </li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval and Court approval. The scheme meeting will be held in July.</li>
<li>We think that the offer is attractive. At the last close price of A$4.96, the gross and annualised spread to a July-end effective date is 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends declared or paid after today. 
The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval and Court approval. The scheme meeting will be held in July.
We think that the offer is attractive. At the last close price of A$4.96, the gross and annualised spread to a July-end effective date is 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively.


Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share

<ul>
<li>The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5.00 cash per share which is in line with the offer from the Connect consortium. At last close, the gross spread is 7.8%. </li>
<li>The Board has decided to engage with Morrison/Brookfield but not with the Connect consortium. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away, according to press reports. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the emergence of another bidder cannot be ruled out as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>’s recurring revenues, cash flows and strong balance sheet is enticing for private equity bidders.  </li>
</ul>


The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5.00 cash per share which is in line with the offer from the Connect consortium. At last close, the gross spread is 7.8%. 
The Board has decided to engage with Morrison/Brookfield but not with the Connect consortium. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away, according to press reports. 
Nevertheless, the emergence of another bidder cannot be ruled out as Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)’s recurring revenues, cash flows and strong balance sheet is enticing for private equity bidders.  


Uniti’s Revised A$5.00 Offer from Morrison/Brookfield

<ul>
<li>The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00 cash per share, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison &amp; Co indicative offer of A$4.50.</li>
<li>Brookfield has joined Morrison &amp; Co as joint bidders. This development suggests another round of bids for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>The A$5m fee to break the Morrison/Brookfield exclusivity pales in comparison to Connect consortium’s A$340m premium to the Morrison/Brookfield offer. Expect Connect consortium to secure due diligence access. </li>
</ul>


The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00 cash per share, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison &amp; Co indicative offer of A$4.50.
Brookfield has joined Morrison &amp; Co as joint bidders. This development suggests another round of bids for Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU).
The A$5m fee to break the Morrison/Brookfield exclusivity pales in comparison to Connect consortium’s A$340m premium to the Morrison/Brookfield offer. Expect Connect consortium to secure due diligence access. 


Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Buying 13.5% below Morrison &amp; Co's Offer terms last week for Aussie broadband player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> was the right call as a new (indicative, non-binding) proposal emerges.</li>
<li>
Macquarie Asset Management's Real Assets division and Public Sector Pension Investment Board are offering to acquire Uniti for $5.00/share, via a Scheme of Arrangement, an 11% premium to Morrison's tilt. </li>
<li>The Board of Uniti is currently considering the new proposal.  Morrison's four-week exclusivity period kicked off last Friday. </li>
</ul>


Buying 13.5% below Morrison &amp; Co's Offer terms last week for Aussie broadband player Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) was the right call as a new (indicative, non-binding) proposal emerges.

Macquarie Asset Management's Real Assets division and Public Sector Pension Investment Board are offering to acquire Uniti for $5.00/share, via a Scheme of Arrangement, an 11% premium to Morrison's tilt. 
The Board of Uniti is currently considering the new proposal.  Morrison's four-week exclusivity period kicked off last Friday. 


Uniti (UWL): Competitive Bidding Situation As Macquarie/PSP Proposal Emerges

Australia

APA Group is a natural gas infrastructure company. The Company owns and or operates gas transmission and distribution assets whose pipelines span every state and territory in mainland Australia. APA Group also holds minority interests in energy infrastructure enterprises.

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APA Group (APA AU)

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Uniti’s Revised A$5.00 Offer from Morrison/Brookfield

The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away. The emergence of another bidder still cannot be...

Arun George

Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?

The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison & Co indicative offer of A$4.50. Expect a bidding war. At last close,...

Arun George

Uniti (UWL): Competitive Bidding Situation As Macquarie/PSP Proposal Emerges

Trading ~7% below MAM/PSP's indicative terms - and 4% above Morrison's proposal. I'd still be a buyer of Uniti around here.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share

Uniti has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends. A done deal with annualised spread to a...

Arun George

Uniti’s Revised A$5.00 Offer from Morrison/Brookfield

The Morrison/Brookfield's revised offer is A$5. The Connect Consortium is said to have walked away. The emergence of another bidder still cannot be...

Arun George

Uniti’s Indicative Bid from Connect Consortium to Set off a Bidding War?

The Connect consortium will offer A$5.00, an 11.1% premium to the Morrison & Co indicative offer of A$4.50. Expect a bidding war. At last close,...

Arun George

Uniti (UWL): Competitive Bidding Situation As Macquarie/PSP Proposal Emerges

Trading ~7% below MAM/PSP's indicative terms - and 4% above Morrison's proposal. I'd still be a buyer of Uniti around here.

David Blennerhassett